Economists: Greek Economic Problems Could Spread

 　　How can problems in Greece’s relatively¹ small economy cause problems for the rest of Europe and even far-away Asia and the United States?  Some economists³ say that international loans and worried investors⁴ are among the reasons for the fear of financial contagion⁵.

　　Economic austerity measures recently sparked riots in Greece as some citizens protested cuts in government spending, services, wages along with tax increases.

　　The bitter medicine was intended to help the troubled government repay loans that made up the difference between high levels of government spending and low levels of tax revenue.

　　Stratfor analyst⁶ Peter Zeihan says Greece’s economy has too many people working for the government and too little industry.

　　“The Greek system does not have an industrial base. Its primary business was in shipbuilding and that has been almost completely over taken by the Chinese and the Koreans.  All that really leaves is tourism.  You cannot support a country Greece’s size on tourism,” Zeihan said.

　　Stratfor does political and economic analysis for business and governments.

　　Greece’s lack of economic power makes it harder for it to pay back loans.  Richard DeKaser of the Parthenon Group in Boston, says, if the Greek government cannot repay its loans, it will hurt lenders, who in turn will have trouble repaying loans they have taken out from other financial institutions.

　　"So the worry is that Greece defaults, certain banks take losses, those losses affect counter-party banks, the entire banking⁷ system goes into contraction⁸ (shrinks)," DeKaser said.

　　With banks less able and less willing to make loans, economic activity slows or even stalls.

　　American Enterprise Institute economist² John Makin says Greece’s economic and political problems could force it to leave the group of nations that use the euro.   He says that makes investors and lenders worry about other euro member nations with heavy debts.

　　“People start asking, if Greece leaves, what about Spain? They are experiencing some of the same symptoms. What about Portugal?,” Makin said.

　　Worried investors and lenders will make fewer loans to nations that seem to have Greece’s problems.  That perceived increase in risk means borrowers will have to pay higher interest rates to get loans, sharply raising their costs and hurting growth.

　　Many economists say a Greek default could do serious harm to many economies.  But Greece’s problems have been well-known for some time, allowing lenders and others to sell off risky⁹ Greek investments, reducing the potential damage.

　　Richard DeKaser also says a political accommodation might also ease the crisis.

　　“I think the most likely scenario¹⁰ is that we get another ‘muddle through' compromise,” DeKaser said.

　　He says protesters and angry voters have sent a message that austerity measures have been too severe and officials may become more flexible as they seek a way out of the crisis.

1 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

6 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

9 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。