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2013年经济学人 西班牙及市场 Spain and the markets

时间:2019-12-02 07:52来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]


Finance and Economics;Spain and the markets;The Spanish patient;


A full bail-out of the euro area's fourth-largest economy is looming1


If Spain were a patient, the mood in the hospital ward2 would be tense. Every attempt by local specialists advised by renowned3 European consultants4 to treat the sickness brings no more than temporary relief. Even more worrying, the relapses after each dose are happening sooner and sooner. Spain's chances of avoiding intensive care—a full bail-out—are receding5 to near vanishing-point.


The symptoms of Spanish sickness are manifest in ten-year government bond yields touching6 7.75% on July 25th; previous bail-outs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal occurred not long after rates had surpassed 7%. Even more perturbing7, two-year yields also briefly8 went above 7%, in effect foreclosing the government's ability to borrow at anything but short maturities9.


No isolation10 ward is possible in the financially integrated euro area and Spain's sickness quickly infected other countries. The Italian ten-year bond yield went above 6.5%, its highest since January. European stockmarkets retreated and Italy's fell to a euro-era low. Sentiment was further soured by a report from Moody's, a ratings agency, saying that Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands might lose their cherished triple-A status. The prognosis was based in part on fears about the public-debt burden that northern countries might have to assume if bail-outs spread.


The market funk was the more troubling since a Spanish government with a lot going for it had appeared to be getting a grip. Public debt is rising fast, but at 69% of GDP last year was far lower than Italy's 120%—and less even than Germany's 81%. The budget deficit11 is high (8.9% of GDP in 2011), but only a week before the market panic Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, announced more tough austerity measures. And on July 20th European finance ministers sanctioned the first tranche of a partial bail-out worth up to EURO100 billion (Dollor121 billion) for Spanish banks.


So why are investors12 in such a cold sweat about Spain? One reason is that Mr Rajoy flunked13 hard choices at the outset, notably14 the cleansing15 of the banks. Despite a low starting-point for public debt, deficit overshoots have revealed insufficient16 central control over the 17 regions that are responsible for a big chunk17 of spending. Investors fret18 that more regions may follow Valencia, which applied19 for aid on July 20th. They are in any case sceptical that Spain can meet its targets for cutting the deficit in the teeth of a recession that is harsher than expected.


The biggest worry is Spain's external debt. Spain ran hefty current-account deficits20 in the first decade of the euro. As a result, its liabilities to foreign investors exceeded the assets that its residents own abroad by 92% of GDP last year, among the highest in the euro area. The problem for Spain is that foreign capital has been fleeing over the past year. That has weakened the banks and the economy and left the Spanish government shunned21 by foreign investors for its own financing needs.


The European summit in late June offered a flicker22 of hope but it is guttering23. Euro-area leaders agreed that the European Stability Mechanism24 (ESM), their new permanent rescue fund, would be able to inject funds directly into banks rather than via loans to the government. That perked25 markets up since it promised to sever26 the link between weak banks and weak sovereigns. But before long the deal looked less solid: the ESM cannot come into force until September, when Germany's constitutional court will rule on its legality. Assuming it passes that test, the ESM cannot be used for direct bank recapitalisation until a European supervisor27 is put in charge.

六月底的欧洲峰会为人们带来了一丝希望,但这个希望却正在逐渐破灭。欧元区领导人同意欧洲稳定机制(ESM)—— 新的永久救助基金,可以直接为各银行注入资金而无需通过政府。这个消息让市场振奋不已,因为它承诺断开脆弱的银行和脆弱的国家之间的联系。但没过多久这个协议便看起来不那么可靠:欧洲稳定机制直到九月才生效,到时德国宪法法庭会对其合法性进行裁决。即使这个机制通过了考验,在欧洲监督机构成立之前,它依然不能直接用来对银行进行资金重组。

Spain may yet be able to fend28 off a bail-out for some time. It has some cash reserves and can still borrow at short maturities. The euro area also has its temporary rescue fund, which will lend the Spanish government the initial sum of money for the banks. But even if Spain survives a hot summer, the markets are signalling that it will need a full bail-out later this year.


That would be a nightmare, and not just for Spain. The Spanish government must borrow EURO385 billion until the end of 2014 to cover its budget deficit and other needs such as bond redemptions, according to economists29 at Credit Suisse. Even if the IMF chips in a third as in previous bail-outs, European lenders would have to find EURO250 billion or so. They have already committed EURO100 billion to rescuing Spanish banks, so for other emergencies they would have only EURO150 billion of the EURO500 billion now in their rescue kitties.


The course of events is eerily30 similar to what happened a year ago. Then European leaders appeared to have secured their summer holidays with a “breakthrough” summit. But things soon fell apart. Nerves about Italy and Spain were calmed only when the European Central Bank (ECB) started buying their bonds. The central bank was never keen on this and it has not been buying bonds for several months. Even if the ECB were to resume purchases they might be less effective than before, because its refusal to share in the pain of the Greek debt restructuring in March frightened bondholders elsewhere.


The awkward truth is that the Spanish government is not alone in flunking31 hard choices. The plight32 of Spain and the danger of its sickness spreading to Italy call for a decisive countermove by Germany and the ECB. One being discussed would be to give the ESM a banking33 licence, which would magnify its resources by allowing it to borrow from the central bank. The graver the euro crisis gets, the bigger the response has to be—and the harder it is to sell to sceptical northern electorates34.

令人尴尬的事实是,西班牙政府并不是唯一一个在艰难抉择中不及格的政府,西班牙的困境及病情已扩散到意大利,这就需要德国和欧洲中央银行采取果断应对措施。已经讨论过的措施之一是给欧洲稳定机制发一个银行执照,允许它从中央银行贷款,从而扩大其资源。欧元危机一旦变得更加严重,所需做出的回应也更大—— 想要说服持怀疑态度的北欧选民也就更加困难。


1 looming 1060bc05c0969cf209c57545a22ee156     
n.上现蜃景(光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼)v.隐约出现,阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 );隐约出现,阴森地逼近
  • The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看,在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望
2 ward LhbwY     
  • The hospital has a medical ward and a surgical ward.这家医院有内科病房和外科病房。
  • During the evening picnic,I'll carry a torch to ward off the bugs.傍晚野餐时,我要点根火把,抵挡蚊虫。
3 renowned okSzVe     
  • He is one of the world's renowned writers.他是世界上知名的作家之一。
  • She is renowned for her advocacy of human rights.她以提倡人权而闻名。
4 consultants c6fbb5ca6219111731f9c4c4d2675810     
顾问( consultant的名词复数 ); 高级顾问医生,会诊医生
  • a firm of management consultants 管理咨询公司
  • There're many consultants in hospital. 医院里有很多会诊医生。
5 receding c22972dfbef8589fece6affb72f431d1     
v.逐渐远离( recede的现在分词 );向后倾斜;自原处后退或避开别人的注视;尤指问题
  • Desperately he struck out after the receding lights of the yacht. 游艇的灯光渐去渐远,他拼命划水追赶。 来自辞典例句
  • Sounds produced by vehicles receding from us seem lower-pitched than usual. 渐渐远离我们的运载工具发出的声似乎比平常的音调低。 来自辞典例句
6 touching sg6zQ9     
  • It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
  • His letter was touching.他的信很感人。
7 perturbing 6a75faaac786ed3502e1977d64922ba6     
v.使(某人)烦恼,不安( perturb的现在分词 )
  • There had been an incident which was perturbing. 曾经出了一点令人不安的事故。 来自辞典例句
8 briefly 9Styo     
  • I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
  • He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。
9 maturities d851a9b545796e02deeef998c66789c0     
  • Maturities of commercial paper range from three days to nine months. 商业票据的期限从3天到9个月不等。 来自互联网
  • German federal government bonds issued with maturities of up to 30 years. 指期限可长达30年的德国联邦政府债券。 来自互联网
10 isolation 7qMzTS     
  • The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
  • He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后,生活比较孤寂。
11 deficit tmAzu     
  • The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
  • We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。
12 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
13 flunked 22d4851a3e2958f8b24bdb0b15e15314     
v.( flunk的过去式和过去分词 );(使)(考试、某学科的成绩等)不及格;评定(某人)不及格;(因不及格而) 退学
  • I flunked math in second grade. 我二年级时数学不及格。
  • He flunked out (of college) last year. 他去年(从大学)退学了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
14 notably 1HEx9     
  • Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席,特别是连班长也没来。
  • A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小,一头银发,每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。
15 cleansing cleansing     
n. 净化(垃圾) adj. 清洁用的 动词cleanse的现在分词
  • medicated cleansing pads for sensitive skin 敏感皮肤药物清洗棉
  • Soap is not the only cleansing agent. 肥皂并不是唯一的清洁剂。
16 insufficient L5vxu     
  • There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
  • In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代,科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。
17 chunk Kqwzz     
  • They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
  • The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。
18 fret wftzl     
  • Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急,我们能准时到那里。
  • She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.
19 applied Tz2zXA     
  • She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
  • This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。
20 deficits 08e04c986818dbc337627eabec5b794e     
n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 );赤字;亏空;亏损
  • The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句
21 shunned bcd48f012d0befb1223f8e35a7516d0e     
v.避开,回避,避免( shun的过去式和过去分词 )
  • She was shunned by her family when she remarried. 她再婚后家里人都躲着她。
  • He was a shy man who shunned all publicity. 他是个怕羞的人,总是避开一切引人注目的活动。 来自《简明英汉词典》
22 flicker Gjxxb     
  • There was a flicker of lights coming from the abandoned house.这所废弃的房屋中有灯光闪烁。
  • At first,the flame may be a small flicker,barely shining.开始时,光辉可能是微弱地忽隐忽现,几乎并不灿烂。
23 guttering e419fa91a79d58c88910bbf6068b395a     
  • a length of guttering 一节沟槽
  • The candle was guttering in the candlestick. 蜡烛在烛台上淌着蜡。 来自辞典例句
24 mechanism zCWxr     
  • The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
  • The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。
25 perked 6257cbe5d4a830c7288630659113146b     
(使)活跃( perk的过去式和过去分词 ); (使)增值; 使更有趣
  • The recent demand for houses has perked up the prices. 最近对住房的需求使房价上涨了。
  • You've perked up since this morning. 你今天上午精神就好多了。
26 sever wTXzb     
  • She wanted to sever all her connections with the firm.她想断绝和那家公司的所有联系。
  • We must never sever the cultural vein of our nation.我们不能割断民族的文化血脉。
27 supervisor RrZwv     
  • Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说,我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
  • He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。
28 fend N78yA     
  • I've had to fend for myself since I was 14.我从十四岁时起就不得不照料自己。
  • He raised his arm up to fend branches from his eyes.他举手将树枝从他眼前挡开。
29 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
30 eerily 0119faef8e868c9b710c70fff6737e50     
  • It was nearly mid-night and eerily dark all around her. 夜深了,到处是一片黑黝黝的怪影。 来自汉英文学 - 散文英译
  • The vast volcanic slope was eerily reminiscent of a lunar landscape. 开阔的火山坡让人心生怪异地联想起月球的地貌。 来自辞典例句
31 flunking 282ab56e0360ca34a79de117d9603303     
v.( flunk的现在分词 );(使)(考试、某学科的成绩等)不及格;评定(某人)不及格;(因不及格而) 退学
  • Is there some school of the ear I'm flunking out off right now? 我是不是被什么听力学校淘汰了? 来自电影对白
  • Twelve freshman footballers were flunking classes and had to leave. 当时有12名高中一年级的美式足球(即橄榄球)队员没有通过考试而不得不离开。 来自互联网
32 plight 820zI     
  • The leader was much concerned over the plight of the refugees.那位领袖对难民的困境很担忧。
  • She was in a most helpless plight.她真不知如何是好。
33 banking aySz20     
  • John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
  • He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。
34 electorates 1c97a4f77eb4f0329d7fedeaaf4791e1     
全体选民( electorate的名词复数 )
  • The assembly's 15 seats have electorates as small as 190. 大会的15个议席只有很少的190选民参加。
  • Restricting hedge funds is something they can sell to their electorates. 限制对冲基金是他们能够向选民兜售的东西。
TAG标签:   2013年听力  经济学人
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