2015年经济学人 俄罗斯和乌克兰 普京对乌克兰问题的态度转变

Russia and Ukraine

Putin's Ukrainian U-turn

How to treat signs that Russia at last wants to lower tensions

A DEFINING feature in the diplomacy¹ of Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is to keep everyone guessing—because he can use doubt to magnify his threats, conceal² his weaknesses and gain the initiative. 

That was the effect of his words on May 7th, one of the few public occasions he has spoken formally about the crisis in Ukraine. 

Mr Putin urged the pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country to postpone³ the referendums they planned for this weekend. 

He said that he saw Ukraine's presidential election due on May 25th as a “step in the right direction”, contradicting his own foreign minister, who has repeatedly called it absurd.

And he reported that he had ordered Russian troops to pull back from the border.

A few welcomed this as the turning-point in a crisis that has now escalated⁴ into a low-intensity war. 

It is to be hoped that they are right. But many more, including this newspaper, will greet Mr Putin's words with due scepticism. 

Throughout the crisis, Russia has said one thing and done another. Even as the diplomacy takes its course, 

the West must sustain its pressure on Russia and its support for Ukraine.

Bait and bait again

The starting point is to gauge⁵ whether Mr Putin means what he says.

He has promised Russian troop withdrawals⁶ before only to fall short: this time the retreat will need to be unambiguous. 

Actions in Ukraine count, too. Rather than continuing to incite⁷ the pro-Russian separatists, 

Mr Putin must be seen to use his influence to broker⁸ peace. But the most revealing test of his sincerity⁹ will be Russia's media, 

which have been doing their bit for the Kremlin by pouring out anti-Ukrainian propaganda. They must now cease their relentless¹⁰ warmongering¹¹.

Suppose that the Kremlin passes these tests, what then? Until now, Mr Putin seemed bent¹² on fomenting¹³ confrontation¹⁴ in Ukraine—with the threat of Russian invasion kept in reserve. 

He has two reasons to step back. One is the increasingly burdensome sanctions that are beginning to damage the Russian economy. 

Possibly even more troubling for him is the mounting death toll¹⁵ in eastern Ukraine. 

The fighting is taking on a hideous¹⁶ momentum¹⁷, sapping Mr Putin's ability to use his influence over eastern Ukraine to wreck¹⁸ the government in Kiev. 

Instead, Russia risks being sucked in to the conflict, in order to honour the guarantees of protection that it has given its supporters. 

Although the threat of invasion is useful for him, actual occupation would involve huge costs. 

The sight of Russian and Ukrainian troops slaughtering¹⁹ each other would puncture²⁰ Mr Putin's popularity at home. 

Much better to keep Ukraine smouldering than to have it burst into flame.

Mr Putin seems to be hoping that a grateful world, desperate to avoid conflict, will agree to what he has sought all along: 

a federation²¹ of Ukraine that blocks it from moving towards the European Union and NATO, as well as the uncontested annexation²² of Crimea. 

The world should not oblige. Ukraine will need to give more autonomy to its regions—but not such power that they can veto foreign policy. 

The West must give Ukraine aid and as much advice as its government will take.

This crisis is far from over. Mr Putin can turn the pressure on Ukraine back up just as easily as he seems to have turned it down. 

He has not relinquished²³ Crimea, and his treatment of Ukraine has betrayed the nature of his regime (see article). 

Therefore, the West should maintain today's sanctions — and the threat of more. 

It should strive to lessen²⁴ its dependence²⁵ on Russian energy and face up to the fact that, while Mr Putin is in power, 

doing business with Russia will be perilous²⁶. After all, would you trust the man who started a fire next door merely because he has suddenly offered you a bucket of water?

1 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

2 conceal   

v.隐藏，隐瞒，隐蔽

参考例句：

• He had to conceal his identity to escape the police.为了躲避警方，他只好隐瞒身份。
• He could hardly conceal his joy at his departure.他几乎掩饰不住临行时的喜悦。

3 postpone   

v.延期，推迟

参考例句：

• I shall postpone making a decision till I learn full particulars.在未获悉详情之前我得从缓作出决定。
• She decided to postpone the converastion for that evening.她决定当天晚上把谈话搁一搁。

4 escalated   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The fighting escalated into a full-scale war. 这场交战逐步扩大为全面战争。
• The demonstration escalated into a pitched battle with the police. 示威逐步升级，演变成了一场同警察的混战。

5 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

6 withdrawals   

n.收回，取回，撤回( withdrawal的名词复数 )；撤退，撤走；收回[取回，撤回，撤退，撤走]的实例；推出（组织），提走（存款），戒除毒瘾，对说过的话收回，孤僻

参考例句：

• He has made several withdrawals from his bank account. 他从银行账户上提了几次款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is not the bank's policy to deduct interest on withdrawals. 提款需扣除利息这并非是本银行的政策。 来自辞典例句

7 incite   

v.引起，激动，煽动

参考例句：

• I wanted to point out he was a very good speaker, and could incite a crowd.我想说明他曾是一个非常出色的演讲家，非常会调动群众的情绪。
• Just a few words will incite him into action.他只需几句话一将，就会干。

8 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

9 sincerity   

n.真诚，诚意；真实

参考例句：

• His sincerity added much more authority to the story.他的真诚更增加了故事的说服力。
• He tried hard to satisfy me of his sincerity.他竭力让我了解他的诚意。

10 relentless   

adj.残酷的，不留情的，无怜悯心的

参考例句：

• The traffic noise is relentless.交通车辆的噪音一刻也不停止。
• Their training has to be relentless.他们的训练必须是无情的。

11 warmongering   

[法] 煽动战争

参考例句：

• What's warmongering got to do with Freedom Road? 自由之路与煽动战争有什么关系？ 来自电影对白
• The speech hits out at warmongering. 这篇演说对煽动战争的行为大加鞭笞。 来自互联网

12 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

13 fomenting   

v.激起，煽动（麻烦等）( foment的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They accused him of fomenting political unrest. 他们指控他煽动政治动乱。
• Three sailors were fomenting a mutiny on the ship. 三个水手正在船上煽动叛变。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

14 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

15 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

16 hideous   

adj.丑陋的，可憎的，可怕的，恐怖的

参考例句：

• The whole experience had been like some hideous nightmare.整个经历就像一场可怕的噩梦。
• They're not like dogs,they're hideous brutes.它们不像狗，是丑陋的畜牲。

17 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

18 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

19 slaughtering   

v.屠杀，杀戮，屠宰( slaughter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The Revolutionary Tribunal went to work, and a steady slaughtering began. 革命法庭投入工作，持续不断的大屠杀开始了。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史
• \"Isn't it terrific slaughtering pigs? “宰猪的！ 来自汉英文学 - 中国现代小说

20 puncture   

n.刺孔，穿孔；v.刺穿，刺破

参考例句：

• Failure did not puncture my confidence.失败并没有挫伤我的信心。
• My bicycle had a puncture and needed patching up.我的自行车胎扎了个洞，需要修补。

21 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

22 annexation   

n.吞并，合并

参考例句：

• He mentioned the Japanese annexation of Korea in 1910 .他提及1910年日本对朝鲜的吞并。
• I regard the question of annexation as belonging exclusively to the United States and Texas.我认为合并的问题，完全属于德克萨斯和美国之间的事。

23 relinquished   

交出，让给( relinquish的过去式和过去分词 )； 放弃

参考例句：

• She has relinquished the post to her cousin, Sir Edward. 她把职位让给了表弟爱德华爵士。
• The small dog relinquished his bone to the big dog. 小狗把它的骨头让给那只大狗。

24 lessen   

vt.减少，减轻；缩小

参考例句：

• Regular exercise can help to lessen the pain.经常运动有助于减轻痛感。
• They've made great effort to lessen the noise of planes.他们尽力减小飞机的噪音。

25 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

26 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。