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Politics

Downtrodden Labour

Why Conservatives are talking up a Labour-SNP coalition¹

My wee prime minister

SPRING is in the air in Westminster and the Conservatives are upbeat. Having lagged behind the opposition² Labour Party in polls for most of the past five years,

they are now narrowly ahead two months before the general election. The Tories'clear messages on the economy mainly account for these green shoots (see Bagehot).

But an additional explanation is emerging 400 miles to the north: the rise of the secessionist Scottish National Party (SNP).

Since the 1980s Scotland has been Labour’s granite-like electoral base.

Though often run by Scots, the party hardly had to think about the country north of Hadrian’s Wall.

When the SNP failed last year to win a referendum on Scottish independence, Labour expected it to fall apart, remembers one shell-shocked former staffer.

Instead the opposite happened. The SNP has hoovered up the sprawling³, leftish Yes (to independence) movement and turned it into a campaigning machine.

The party’s membership has grown from 26,000 to 100,000 in six months. Polling published by Lord Ashcroft, a Tory peer,

on March 4th suggests that it is on track to take most of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland, including some of its oldest strongholds.

This helps the Tories in several ways. The first is practical: Labour must divert scarce campaigning resources north to fight for once-safe Scottish seats.

The second concerns electoral arithmetic. Even if no party emerges from the election with a majority, as looks likely,

the one with the most votes will enter coalition talks with momentum⁴ and authority. Nick Clegg, the leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats⁵,

says that he will speak to the biggest party first—as he did in 2010, when he formed a coalition with David Cameron’s lot.

The fewer seats Labour wins, the better the Tories'chance of being in that position and thus of holding power.

But the main reason for Conservative cheer is that the nationalists'rise may force Labour to seek an accommodation with the SNP.

The latest projection⁶ by Election Forecast, a group of political scientists, suggests that Mr Miliband will lack the numbers to govern without the backing

(or, at least, tolerance) of the party’s MPs. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s leader, appears to be preparing for such an arrangement:

she has assured Scottish voters that her party will never prop⁷ up the Conservatives,

and on March 6th confirmed that its opposition to Britain’s nuclear deterrent⁸ would not block a deal with Labour.

Tory strategists believe that the prospect⁹ of a Labour government reliant on the support of MPs who would shatter the United Kingdom horrifies¹⁰ the English.

They are gleefully talking up a Labour-SNP deal in the hope that it will cost Labour votes south of the border.

In February Mr Cameron claimed that the two leftish parties were “halfway up the aisle” and preparing for “a honeymoon¹¹ in North Korea”.

On billboards¹² in English marginal constituencies a Conservative poster depicts¹³ a huge Mr Salmond with Mr Miliband in his pocket.

Tactically, this is smart. Labour frontbenchers wriggle¹⁴ when asked about the SNP, denying that a deal is “on the agenda” but refusing to rule it out.

Yet the Tories'ruse could backfire. Humza Yousaf, an SNP bigwig, claims that Mr Cameron’s theatrics will “only increase our support in Scotland”.

He has a point. Last September the prime minister begged the Scots to stay, saying that he would be “utterly heartbroken” if they seceded¹⁵.

Yet his recent attacks on the SNP can only strengthen the nationalists'claims that the English and the Scots are better off apart.

Mr Cameron may protest that he is merely trying to win a second term. But at what cost to the union?

1 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

2 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

3 sprawling   

adj.蔓生的，不规则地伸展的v.伸开四肢坐[躺]( sprawl的现在分词 )；蔓延；杂乱无序地拓展；四肢伸展坐着（或躺着）

参考例句：

• He was sprawling in an armchair in front of the TV. 他伸开手脚坐在电视机前的一张扶手椅上。
• a modern sprawling town 一座杂乱无序拓展的现代城镇

4 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

5 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

7 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

8 deterrent   

n.阻碍物，制止物；adj.威慑的，遏制的

参考例句：

• Large fines act as a deterrent to motorists.高额罚款是对开车的人的制约。
• I put a net over my strawberries as a deterrent to the birds.我在草莓上罩了网，免得鸟歇上去。

9 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

10 horrifies   

v.使震惊，使感到恐怖( horrify的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The Nazi oppression of the Jews horrifies me. 纳粹对犹太人的迫害使我反感。 来自辞典例句
• That's a prospect that horrifies Net purists. 这种前景让网络净化者感到不安。 来自互联网

11 honeymoon   

n.蜜月（假期）；vi.度蜜月

参考例句：

• While on honeymoon in Bali,she learned to scuba dive.她在巴厘岛度蜜月时学会了带水肺潜水。
• The happy pair are leaving for their honeymoon.这幸福的一对就要去度蜜月了。

12 billboards   

n.广告牌( billboard的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Large billboards have disfigured the scenery. 大型告示板已破坏了景色。 来自辞典例句
• Then, put the logo in magazines and on billboards without telling anyone what it means. 接着我们把这个商标刊在杂志和广告看板上，却不跟任何人透漏它的涵意。 来自常春藤生活英语杂志-2006年4月号

13 depicts   

描绘，描画( depict的第三人称单数 )； 描述

参考例句：

• The book vividly depicts French society of the 1930s. 这本书生动地描绘了20 世纪30 年代的法国社会。
• He depicts the sordid and vulgar sides of life exclusively. 他只描写人生肮脏和庸俗的一面。

14 wriggle   

v./n.蠕动，扭动；蜿蜒

参考例句：

• I've got an appointment I can't wriggle out of.我有个推脱不掉的约会。
• Children wriggle themselves when they are bored.小孩子感到厌烦时就会扭动他们的身体。

15 seceded   

v.脱离，退出( secede的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The Republic of Panama seceded from Colombia in 1903. 巴拿马共和国于1903年脱离哥伦比亚。
• One of the states has seceded from the federation. 有一个州已从联邦中退出。 来自辞典例句