2015年经济学人 英国经济 虚伪的乔治

Britain's economy

Spurious George

The chancellor¹ is poised² to put forward a long-term plan for Britain—about the wrong thing

THE British government's great boast is its resolve. Fainter hearts might have trembled before the political law that you cannot cut your way to re-election. But the Conservative-Liberal Democrat³ coalition⁴, forged in the dark days following the financial crisis, formed a plan for the economy and stood its ground. Its reward has been to see unemployment tumble and Britain grow faster than any other big rich country in 2014.

It is a rousing refrain. And when George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer⁵, gives the budget speech on March 18th, less than two months before a general election that will revolve⁶ around the economy, he is sure to utter the words “long-term economic plan” and to affirm his iron commitment to a fiscal⁷ surplus for Britain by 2018-19 (see Bagehot).

The shabby truth, however, is that the success of Mr Osborne stems from the goals he has abandoned, rather than the guns he has stuck to. And next week, unless his budget plans are more apt, Britain risks paying a heavy price.

The government has done sensible things with Mr Osborne as chancellor—not least cutting corporation tax, raising the income-tax threshold and pinching Mark Carney from Canada for the Bank of England. But it has been at its best when it has been at its least consistent, in three main areas.

The first is fiscal policy. Five years ago the Conservatives pledged to eliminate almost all of Britain's structural⁸ deficit⁹—then estimated at 8.7% of GDP—by the end of their term. They now lead a coalition government that is only half way there. Borrowing this year will probably be about 5% of GDP or ￡90 billion ($135 billion), ￡55 billion more than first planned. After two years of weak growth, because of austerity and a European slump¹⁰, the chancellor pushed back his deadline for closing the deficit. So much for what was then known as “Plan A”.

Red box, black box

That change was welcome and necessary. Sticking to the plan would have meant tax rises or bigger cuts to public spending, or a combination of the two. It would probably have pitched the economy back into recession, and might have wrecked¹¹ public services. As it is, the state has coped with deep but steady cuts. Crime is down and the sky has not fallen on local government or the National Health Service.

A second change of course was equally welcome. After coming to power in 2010, the coalition first stuck to the previous Labour government's plans to slash¹² capital budgets. Public investment—always the easiest bill to cut quickly—fell by 35% in two years. That was foolish. Spending on infrastructure¹³ is essential to long-term growth and is chronically¹⁴ low in Britain. Mr Osborne tempered the cuts in infrastructure spending starting in 2011. Again, his change of heart was good.

The biggest and best departure from the blueprint¹⁵ is also the most embarrassing. Before he became prime minister, David Cameron pledged to reduce annual net migration¹⁶ to the “tens of thousands”. The coalition government has never abandoned that goal. Yet at the last count net migration stood at a UKIP-maddening 298,000 and rising. Because they are young, healthy, hardworking and enterprising, immigrants have boosted growth and swelled¹⁷ the public purse. A big fall in net migration would have weighed on the economy: GDP has risen by 7.8% over this parliament; GDP per person is up by only 4.2%.

You might think that the government's vacillations are ancient history or that doing the right thing is more important than saying it. But plans focus the mind. And in the upcoming budget Mr Osborne risks focusing minds on the wrong issue.

Britain's biggest problem today is not the deficit but stagnant¹⁸ productivity growth that leaves output per hour 2% below its peak in 2008.The country's economic future depends far more on boosting how much Britons produce at work than how quickly the deficit is cut. Mr Osborne surely knows that and may secretly plan to shift priorities later. But he is making good policy less likely. U-turns are embarrassing, so plans tend to last for too long. By preparing for deficit-cutting and neglecting productivity, government departments are dissipating their efforts. Mr Osborne did well to change course before. The right thing today is to make a plan for productivity—and stick to it.

1 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

2 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

3 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

4 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

5 exchequer   

n.财政部；国库

参考例句：

• In Britain the Chancellor of the Exchequer deals with taxes and government spending.英国的财政大臣负责税务和政府的开支。
• This resulted in a considerable loss to the exchequer.这使国库遭受了重大损失。

6 revolve   

vi.(使)旋转；循环出现

参考例句：

• The planets revolve around the sun.行星绕着太阳运转。
• The wheels began to revolve slowly.车轮开始慢慢转动。

7 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

8 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

9 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

10 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

11 wrecked   

adj.失事的，遇难的

参考例句：

• the hulk of a wrecked ship 遇难轮船的残骸
• the salvage of the wrecked tanker 对失事油轮的打捞

12 slash   

vi.大幅度削减；vt.猛砍，尖锐抨击，大幅减少；n.猛砍，斜线，长切口，衣衩

参考例句：

• The shop plans to slash fur prices after Spring Festival.该店计划在春节之后把皮货降价。
• Don't slash your horse in that cruel way.不要那样残忍地鞭打你的马。

13 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

14 chronically   

ad.长期地

参考例句：

• Similarly, any pigment nevus that is chronically irritated should be excised. 同样，凡是经常受慢性刺激的各种色素痣切勿予以切除。
• People chronically exposed to chlorine develop some degree of tolerance. 人长期接触氯气可以产生某种程度的耐受性。

15 blueprint   

n.蓝图，设计图，计划；vt.制成蓝图，计划

参考例句：

• All the machine parts on a blueprint must answer each other.设计图上所有的机器部件都应互相配合。
• The documents contain a blueprint for a nuclear device.文件内附有一张核装置的设计蓝图。

16 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

17 swelled   

增强( swell的过去式和过去分词 )； 肿胀； （使）凸出； 充满（激情）

参考例句：

• The infection swelled his hand. 由于感染，他的手肿了起来。
• After the heavy rain the river swelled. 大雨过后，河水猛涨。

18 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。