2015年经济学人 安哥拉 发展全靠石油

Angola

Still much too oily

Angola badly needs to diversify¹ its one-dimensional economy

FROM the top of the Fortaleza de Sao Miguel, a 16th-century Portuguese² citadel³ that once dominated the Angolan capital,

you see an army of cranes erecting⁴ high-rise offices, fancy hotels and blocks of smart flats.

Luanda's traffic zooms⁵ below on an eight-lane highway, as pedestrians⁶ amble⁷ among palm trees or play basketball on the Marginal, a renovated⁸, spotless promenade⁹.

“You almost forget you are in sub-Saharan Africa,” says a foreign businessman well acquainted with the region.

Such a view would have been unimaginable only 12 years ago when Angola's devastating¹⁰ 27-year civil war had just ended,

leaving it a basket case. The economy and infrastructure¹¹ were in tatters. Health and education systems barely existed.

Since then the former Portuguese colony has grown rapidly thanks to oil.

Crude production increased from 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) in 2003 to almost 2m b/d in 2008.

The economy expanded by more than 10% a year, making it seem one of the most buoyant in the world.

Today Angola's GDP is the fifth-biggest in Africa.

The pace of economic activity is frenetic.

In downtown Luanda developers plan to put up still more skyscrapers¹² and in July the first grand shopping mall is set to open its doors and tempt¹³ shoppers with Armani, Hugo Boss and Prada.

In the rest of the country, the government is spending billions of dollars on roads, railways, airports and energy projects.

Yet the days of sky-high growth are coming to an end.

During and after a downturn in 2009 and 2010, caused by a crash in oil prices,

Angolan policymakers were confident that the economy would quickly regain¹⁴ its swagger.

But with oil output more or less stagnant¹⁵ since 2009, when it dropped to 1.8m b/d,

the government has been forced to lower its expectations.

Jose Eduardo dos Santos, the president since 1979, said in October that growth in 2013 would be 5.1%, well below the target of 7.1%.

In fact it will end up at 4.1%, reckons the IMF.

Nor is it expected to speed up again in the next few years.

Most foreign analysts¹⁶ reckon that predictions by Sonangol, the state oil company,

that production will return to 2m b/d next year are unrealistic.

Many think 5% GDP growth will be Angola's lot for the time being.

This could herald¹⁷ big changes for the country. Crucially, it will press the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola

(known by its Portuguese acronym¹⁸, MPLA) to do more to diversify the economy.

Oil accounts for 97% of exports and almost 80% of state revenues. Last year the government posted its first budget deficit¹⁹ since 2009.

All the same, parts of the non-oil sector²⁰ are thriving.

The banking²¹, telecoms, construction, drinks and retail²² industries are doing well,

fuelled by the rise of a new (though still small) middle class.

Manufacturing is picking up, from a very low base.

The effects are beginning to be felt on the ground.

Luanda, which ranks alongside Tokyo and London as one of the world's most expensive cities for expatriates, is becoming slightly cheaper.

“I bought sliced mangoes in a supermarket for the equivalent of $1.50 the other day,” says a foreign banker.

“Not long ago, they would have cost me $5.”

Yet Angola remains²³ a difficult place for investors²⁴ and entrepreneurs.

In the World Bank's latest “ease of doing business” survey, the country ranks 179th out of 189.

Enforcing a contract through Angola's inefficient²⁵ and sometimes corrupt²⁶ courts can take years.

Getting a visa is a hassle. A dire²⁷ shortage of electricity means local firms struggle to compete with imported goods.

Moreover, a rentier culture forces many businesses to “partner” with members of the political and military elite²⁸.

That the president's daughter, Isabel dos Santos, is Africa's first female billionaire is seen by human-rights groups as an indictment²⁹ of the system.

Oil provides few jobs for locals and Angola is horribly unequal.

The quality of life of people in rural areas and slums, such as Luanda's Chicala, has barely improved since 2002.

Most Angolans lack running water or electricity.

Many within the MPLA privately³⁰ admit to its failure to develop the non-oil economy.

Since 2012 the government has talked more about improving social conditions, health care and education.

Yet there is little sign of large-scale political or social unrest.

Protests in Luanda, including one in November when the police detained 300 people and shot dead an opposition³¹ activist³², are sporadic³³.

The MPLA controls almost all of the media, while the two main opposition parties lack mass appeal.

A smooth transition is generally expected when or if the 71-year-old president steps down as he has hinted, probably between now and 2017,

when the next national elections are to be held.

There was talk of his son, Jose Filomeno de Sousa dos Santos, who is chairman of Angola's sovereign-wealth fund, being lined up as a successor.

But it has died down. Instead, the president is thought to favour his business-minded vice-president,

Manuel Vicente, who ran Sonangol from 1999-2012. He cannot be guaranteed to tilt³⁴ the country away from oil.

But a new generation of Angolans is coming of age; about 60% of the country's 21m people are under 25.

Unlike their parents, they will not be satisfied solely³⁵ with the MPLA's achievement in making peace earlier this century.

What they need is jobs. And oil alone will not provide them.

1 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

2 Portuguese   

n.葡萄牙人；葡萄牙语

参考例句：

• They styled their house in the Portuguese manner.他们仿照葡萄牙的风格设计自己的房子。
• Her family is Portuguese in origin.她的家族是葡萄牙血统。

3 citadel   

n.城堡；堡垒；避难所

参考例句：

• The citadel was solid.城堡是坚固的。
• This citadel is built on high ground for protecting the city.这座城堡建于高处是为保护城市。

4 erecting   

v.使直立，竖起( erect的现在分词 )；建立

参考例句：

• Nations can restrict their foreign trade by erecting barriers to exports as well as imports. 象设置进口壁垒那样，各国可以通过设置出口壁垒来限制对外贸易。 来自辞典例句
• Could you tell me the specific lift-slab procedure for erecting buildings? 能否告之用升板法安装楼房的具体程序？ 来自互联网

5 zooms   

n.嗡嗡声( zoom的名词复数 )；隆隆声；（车辆等）疾驰的声音；变焦

参考例句：

• A sneeze zooms out of your mouth at over 600 m.p.h. 从你口中打出的喷嚏速度可达每小时600里。 来自互联网
• When the camera zooms in, the whole world watches out. 当镜头对准（汶川），全世界都在关注。 来自互联网

6 pedestrians   

n.步行者( pedestrian的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Several pedestrians had come to grief on the icy pavement. 几个行人在结冰的人行道上滑倒了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Pedestrians keep to the sidewalk [footpath]! 行人走便道。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 amble   

vi.缓行，漫步

参考例句：

• The horse is walking at an amble.这匹马正在溜蹄行走。
• Every evening,they amble along the bank. 每天晚上，他们都沿着江边悠闲地散步。

8 renovated   

翻新，修复，整修( renovate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He renovated his house. 他翻修了房子。
• The house has been renovated three years earlier. 这所房子三年前就已翻新。

9 promenade   

n./v.散步

参考例句：

• People came out in smarter clothes to promenade along the front.人们穿上更加时髦漂亮的衣服，沿着海滨散步。
• We took a promenade along the canal after Sunday dinner.星期天晚饭后我们沿着运河散步。

10 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

11 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

12 skyscrapers   

n.摩天大楼

参考例句：

• A lot of skyscrapers in Manhattan are rising up to the skies. 曼哈顿有许多摩天大楼耸入云霄。
• On all sides, skyscrapers rose like jagged teeth. 四周耸起的摩天大楼参差不齐。

13 tempt   

vt.引诱，勾引，吸引，引起…的兴趣

参考例句：

• Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能诱使他去那样做。
• The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有钱了，可这丝毫没能让她改变节俭的生活习惯。

14 regain   

vt.重新获得，收复，恢复

参考例句：

• He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
• The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。

15 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

16 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

17 herald   

vt.预示...的来临，预告，宣布，欢迎

参考例句：

• In England, the cuckoo is the herald of spring.在英国杜鹃鸟是报春的使者。
• Dawn is the herald of day.曙光是白昼的先驱。

18 acronym   

n.首字母简略词，简称

参考例句：

• That's a mouthful of an acronym for a very simple technology.对于一项非常简单的技术来说，这是一个很绕口的缩写词。
• TSDF is an acronym for Treatment, Storage and Disposal Facilities.TSDF是处理，储存和处置设施的一个缩写。

19 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

20 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

21 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

22 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

23 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

24 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

25 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。

26 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。

27 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

28 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

29 indictment   

n.起诉；诉状

参考例句：

• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。
• They issued an indictment against them.他们起诉了他们。

30 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。

31 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

32 activist   

n.活动分子，积极分子

参考例句：

• He's been a trade union activist for many years.多年来他一直是工会的积极分子。
• He is a social activist in our factory.他是我厂的社会活动积极分子。

33 sporadic   

adj.偶尔发生的 [反]regular；分散的

参考例句：

• The sound of sporadic shooting could still be heard.仍能听见零星的枪声。
• You know this better than I.I received only sporadic news about it.你们比我更清楚，而我听到的只是零星消息。

34 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

35 solely   

adv.仅仅，唯一地

参考例句：

• Success should not be measured solely by educational achievement.成功与否不应只用学业成绩来衡量。
• The town depends almost solely on the tourist trade.这座城市几乎完全靠旅游业维持。