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2015年经济学人 苏格兰独立公投将近

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Scottish independence

Sparks flying

Poverty and dependence1 on the state pull Scots in opposite directions

BETTING shops in Rosyth are rowdier than usual.

The troublemakers2 are not the familiar sort—drunks jousting3 over a Rangers4 match or the 4.30

at Musselburgh—but punters debating Scottish independence.

“We've had to chuck people out,” grumbles5 one bookie.

A gnarled customer agrees: “I don't like people talking about it in my cab,” he growls6, eyes not moving from the racing7.

As the referendum on September 18th draws closer, tensions in this shipbuilding town are growing.

All politics is local, even when an entire country's future is at stake.

But in Rosyth, a run-down port in the shadow of the Forth8 Bridge near Edinburgh,

distinctive9 local factors are pulling people in opposite directions.

The importance of the town's biggest industry seems to militate for sticking with Britain.

But the generally depressed10 state of the economy makes independence more appealing (see article).

The outcome of this tug-of-war will determine how people vote in Rosyth—and in other parts of Scotland.

Residents are reminded of the case for union every time they leave their homes.

Above treetops and through gaps between pebble-dashed houses,

glimpses of a vast blue rig marked “Air Carrier Alliance” and “Royal Navy” are visible.

Beyond, the grey, 65,000-tonne slab11 of Britain's newest aircraft-carrier,HMS Queen Elizabeth, sits in the estuary12.

In a place where 13% of working-age adults are on out-of-work benefits,

the shipyard is by far the largest employer—and it relies on money from Westminster.

Those who build and man the ships are therefore firmly unionist.

At a ceremony to name the carrier on July 4th, they booed Alex Salmond,

Scotland's nationalist first minister and the leader of the pro-independence “yes” campaign.

The following week the Rosyth workers' union representatives appeared before MPs in Westminster to warn against secession.

Henry Wilson, a convener at BAE Systems, a defence firm, warned that naval13 shipbuilding in Scotland would be “finished” if Mr Salmond got his way.

In the ex-servicemen's club on Admiralty Road most agree with Mr Wilson. Only one drinker is willing to admit to backing “yes”.

“Ey, I've made up my mind,” says Jimmy, grinning defiantly14.

He struggles to hold his own around here, he adds: “full of “no” voters; gets very heated.”

“He won't listen,” sighs Janet, the barmaid, wiping beer glasses. Janet thinks Mr Salmond's promises are baloney:

“I don't trust him as far as I could throw him.”

Jimmy is in a minority in the ex-servicemen's club, but he may not be in Rosyth at large. Nationalist sentiment is widespread.

More “yes” signs are visible in windows than are “no” ones.

Scottish saltires the size of bedsheets billow above allotments and from blocks of flats.

Beyond the shipyard there is little sign of the British union flag.

In 2010 an NHS study of central Rosyth put male life expectancy15 at 73.3 years—five years shorter than the British average.

Teenage pregnancy16 and welfare dependency are unusually common, too.

Those hard-up locals not employed in the shipyard could be forgiven for thinking that the union is not working for Scotland—and taking a gamble on independence.

A great many former Labour Party voters fall into this category.

The collapse17 of the party's working-class base in the 2011 Scottish election gave Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party

(SNP) the majority it needed to press for a referendum on independence.

In Cowdenbeath, the seat containing Rosyth, support for the SNP jumped from 29% to 42%.

This makes Rosyth typical of a sort of Scottish town:

post-industrial and deprived but sustained by the British state,

which spends about 1,500 ($2,500) more per head in Scotland than it does nationally.

Others include Govan and Scotstoun, both shipyards, and Pollokshaws,

home to National Savings18 and Investments, a state-owned bank.

In Cumbernauld, outside Glasgow, Britain's largest revenue and customs office employs four times as many people as any other outfit19.

Gregg McClymont, Labour MP for Cumbernauld, notes that Scotland has 8% of Britain's people but 13% of its tax jobs.

How could it sustain them if it became independent?

In such places, the “yes” campaign faces a particularly acute version of a problem that confronts it across Scotland.

The disadvantages of independence are concrete and would be quickly felt—in the case of Rosyth,

shipbuilding jobs would sail to Portsmouth, on England's south coast.

Any advantages, such as the broad industrial revival20 promised by Mr Salmond, would take years to materialise, if they ever do.

Folk in Rosyth enjoy the odd flutter. But on September 18th the stakes will be much higher than usual.


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 dependence 3wsx9     
n.依靠,依赖;信任,信赖;隶属
参考例句:
  • Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
  • He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。
2 troublemakers 2d09f1f3c2345e9bf267eb0820a3b2ec     
n.惹是生非者,捣乱者( troublemaker的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • He was employed to chuck out any troublemakers. 他受雇把捣乱者赶走。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • She had automatically labelled the boys as troublemakers. 她不假思索地认定这些男孩子是捣蛋鬼。 来自《简明英汉词典》
3 jousting 61f54586c2d51ea99148b54cf00febef     
(骑士)骑马用长矛比武( joust的现在分词 )
参考例句:
  • The players happily jousting inside the castle walls didn't see the moat outside widening. 玩家在城墙上幸福地战斗的时候,没有注意到护城河已经开始扩张了。
4 rangers f306109e6f069bca5191deb9b03359e2     
护林者( ranger的名词复数 ); 突击队员
参考例句:
  • Do you know where the Rangers Stadium is? 你知道Rangers体育场在哪吗? 来自超越目标英语 第3册
  • Now I'm a Rangers' fan, so I like to be near the stadium. 现在我是Rangers的爱好者,所以我想离体育场近一点。 来自超越目标英语 第3册
5 grumbles a99c97d620c517b5490044953d545cb1     
抱怨( grumble的第三人称单数 ); 发牢骚; 咕哝; 发哼声
参考例句:
  • He grumbles at his lot instead of resolutely facing his difficulties. 他不是果敢地去面对困难,而是抱怨自己运气不佳。
  • I'm sick of your unending grumbles. 我对你的不断埋怨感到厌烦。
6 growls 6ffc5e073aa0722568674220be53a9ea     
v.(动物)发狺狺声, (雷)作隆隆声( growl的第三人称单数 );低声咆哮着说
参考例句:
  • The dog growls at me. 狗向我狂吠。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
  • The loudest growls have echoed around emerging markets and commodities. 熊嚎之声响彻新兴的市场与商品。 来自互联网
7 racing 1ksz3w     
n.竞赛,赛马;adj.竞赛用的,赛马用的
参考例句:
  • I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
  • The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。
8 forth Hzdz2     
adv.向前;向外,往外
参考例句:
  • The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
  • He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。
9 distinctive Es5xr     
adj.特别的,有特色的,与众不同的
参考例句:
  • She has a very distinctive way of walking.她走路的样子与别人很不相同。
  • This bird has several distinctive features.这个鸟具有几种突出的特征。
10 depressed xu8zp9     
adj.沮丧的,抑郁的,不景气的,萧条的
参考例句:
  • When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
  • His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。
11 slab BTKz3     
n.平板,厚的切片;v.切成厚板,以平板盖上
参考例句:
  • This heavy slab of oak now stood between the bomb and Hitler.这时笨重的橡木厚板就横在炸弹和希特勒之间了。
  • The monument consists of two vertical pillars supporting a horizontal slab.这座纪念碑由两根垂直的柱体构成,它们共同支撑着一块平板。
12 estuary ynuxs     
n.河口,江口
参考例句:
  • We live near the Thames estuary.我们的住处靠近泰晤士河入海口。
  • The ship has touched bottom.The estuary must be shallower than we thought.船搁浅了。这河口的水比我们想像的要浅。
13 naval h1lyU     
adj.海军的,军舰的,船的
参考例句:
  • He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
  • The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。
14 defiantly defiantly     
adv.挑战地,大胆对抗地
参考例句:
  • Braving snow and frost, the plum trees blossomed defiantly. 红梅傲雪凌霜开。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
  • She tilted her chin at him defiantly. 她向他翘起下巴表示挑衅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
15 expectancy tlMys     
n.期望,预期,(根据概率统计求得)预期数额
参考例句:
  • Japanese people have a very high life expectancy.日本人的平均寿命非常长。
  • The atomosphere of tense expectancy sobered everyone.这种期望的紧张气氛使每个人变得严肃起来。
16 pregnancy lPwxP     
n.怀孕,怀孕期
参考例句:
  • Early pregnancy is often accompanied by nausea.怀孕早期常有恶心的现象。
  • Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of miscarriage.怀孕期吸烟会增加流产的危险。
17 collapse aWvyE     
vi.累倒;昏倒;倒塌;塌陷
参考例句:
  • The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
  • The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。
18 savings ZjbzGu     
n.存款,储蓄
参考例句:
  • I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假,那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
  • By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时,他的存款已全部用完。
19 outfit YJTxC     
n.(为特殊用途的)全套装备,全套服装
参考例句:
  • Jenney bought a new outfit for her daughter's wedding.珍妮为参加女儿的婚礼买了一套新装。
  • His father bought a ski outfit for him on his birthday.他父亲在他生日那天给他买了一套滑雪用具。
20 revival UWixU     
n.复兴,复苏,(精力、活力等的)重振
参考例句:
  • The period saw a great revival in the wine trade.这一时期葡萄酒业出现了很大的复苏。
  • He claimed the housing market was showing signs of a revival.他指出房地产市场正出现复苏的迹象。
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