2019年经济学人 伊朗伊斯兰革命四十年(3)

 

Above all, indiscriminate sanctions are likely to strengthen Iran’s hardliners. American pressure gives them excuses for bad behaviour; adventurism abroad becomes self-defence; oligarchic¹ control of the economy is portrayed² as a means to bust³ sanctions; and critics are dismissed as puppets of the Great Satan. If Iran casts off the JCPOA’s nuclear constraints⁴, America and Israel will have to choose between the risk of Iran building a nuclear bomb and the dangers of a bombing campaign to stop it.

最重要的是，不分青红皂白的制裁可能会让伊朗的强硬派有所行动。美国方面的压力让其有了不良行为的借口；对外冒险主义变成了自卫；经济寡头控制被描绘成一种破坏制裁的手段；批评家被斥责为大撒旦的傀儡。如果伊朗摆脱“伊核协议”的核限制，美国和以色列将不得不在伊朗制造核弹的风险和阻止轰炸行动的危险之间做出选择。

America’s apparent efforts to bring down the regime are unappealing to most Iranians, given the bloody⁵ chaos⁶ they see all around. The mullahs are still willing to shoot opponents; few ordinary Iranians are yet ready to die trying to overthrow⁷ them. The best hope for change in Iran may come with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 79 and in poor health.

鉴于伊朗到处都是血腥的混乱局面，美国推翻伊朗政权的显著努力对大多数伊朗人来说毫无吸引力。毛拉们仍然要射杀反对者；没有几个伊朗平民愿意为推翻毛拉而死。伊朗变革的最大希望可能是79岁的健康情况不佳的阿亚图拉哈·梅内伊去世。

To nudge Iran towards normality, America needs to mix firmness with pragmatism, rather as it did in the cold war with the Soviet⁸ Union. This means containing Iran until its people grow weary of their rulers, and negotiating partial deals that limit the risk of outright⁹ conflict. America should seek unity¹⁰ with its own democratic allies and attempt to isolate¹¹ Iran’s revolutionaries from their subjects. It should aim sanctions at hardliners rather than the country as a whole. It should do more to expose the regime’s brutality¹² and corruption¹³, counter its propaganda and increase contacts with Iranian citizens—giving them more visas to visit America, not fewer. And it should offer to talk to Ayatollah Khamenei. To him, America’s outstretched hand may be more Terrifying than its fist.

为推动伊朗步入正轨，美国需将坚定与实用主义相结合，正如与苏联的冷战中所做的那样。这就意味着要容忍伊朗直到伊朗民众厌倦当前统治者，谈判部分能够限制完全冲突风险的协议。美国应寻求与己方民主盟友的团结，并试图将伊朗革命者与其臣民隔离开来。制裁的对象应该是强硬派，而非整个国家。应该做更多的事情来揭露伊朗政权的残暴和腐败，反击其宣传，并增加与伊朗公民的接触——给他们更多去美国的签证，而不是更少。应主动提出与阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊对话。对阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊来说，美国伸出的手可能比拳头更可怕。

1 oligarchic   

adj.寡头政治的，主张寡头政治的

参考例句：

• The oligarchic fortunes are in oil and metals. 这个寡头国家的巨额财富来自石油和金属。 来自互联网
• Oligarchic groups dominate investment flows, investing 30 per cent more than other private owners. 寡头集团主导了投资流动，它们的投资比私人所有者的投资高出30%。 来自互联网

2 portrayed   

v.画像( portray的过去式和过去分词 )；描述；描绘；描画

参考例句：

• Throughout the trial, he portrayed himself as the victim. 在审讯过程中，他始终把自己说成是受害者。
• The author portrayed his father as a vicious drunkard. 作者把他父亲描绘成一个可恶的酒鬼。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

4 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

5 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

6 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

7 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

8 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

9 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

10 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

11 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

12 brutality   

n.野蛮的行为，残忍，野蛮

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• a general who was infamous for his brutality 因残忍而恶名昭彰的将军

13 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。