2019年经济学人 印度vs巴基斯坦:莫迪的危险时刻(2)

 

In the long run, stability depends on Pakistan ending its indefensible support for terrorism. Its prime minister, Imran Khan, is urging dialogue and, in a promising¹ gesture, was due to release India’s pilot—presumably with the approval of the army chief, who calls the shots on matters of security.

从长远来看，稳定取决于巴基斯坦结束对恐怖主义的站不住脚的支持。印度总理伊姆兰·汗以充满希望的姿态敦促双方进行对话，并将释放印度飞行员。这大概是得到了负责在安全问题上发号施令的军方首脑的批准。

But in the short run Mr Modi shares the responsibility to stop a disastrous² escalation³. Because he faces an election in April, he faces the hardest and most consequential⁴ calculations. They could come to define his premiership.

但短期内莫迪有责任阻止灾难性的局势升级。因为他将在4月迎来大选，要面对最艰难同时也是举足轻重的选票。而这些选票能够决定他的去留。

Mr Modi has always presented himself as a bold and resolute⁵ military leader, who does not shrink from confronting Pakistan’s provocations⁶. He has taken to repeating a catchphrase from the film “Uri”, which portrays⁷ a commando raid he ordered against Pakistan in 2016 in response to a previous terrorist attack as a moment of chin-jutting grit⁸. The all-too-plausible fear is that his own tendency to swagger, along with domestic political pressures, will spur him further down the spiral towards war.

莫迪一直表现为一勇敢果决的军事领袖，面对巴基斯坦的挑衅，他毫不退缩。他开始重复电影《Uri》中的一句口头禅，这部电影再现了他在2016年下令对巴基斯坦发动突击，以回应此前的一次恐怖袭击，以体现他的勇毅。最让人担心的是，他自己的狂妄自大，加上国内的政治压力，将促使他进一步滑向战争的漩涡。

The ambiguity⁹ of Mr Modi’s beliefs only deepens the danger. He campaigned at the election in 2014 as a moderniser, who would bring jobs and prosperity to India. But, his critics charge, all his talk of development and reform is simply the figleaf for a lifelong commitment to a divisive Hindu-nationalist agenda.

莫迪信仰的模糊性只会加深危险。在2014年的大选中，他以一名将为印度带来就业和繁荣的现代化人士的身份参加竞选。但是，他的批评者指责，他所有关于发展和改革的言论，只不过是他毕生致力于印度教民族主义分裂议程的遮羞布。

Over the past five years Mr Modi has lived up neither to the hype nor to the dire¹⁰ warnings. The economy has grown strongly under his leadership, by around 7% a year. He has brought about reforms his predecessors¹¹ had promised but never delivered, such as a nationwide goods-and-services tax (GST).

过去5年，人们对莫迪的政治表现褒贬不一。在他的领导下，经济以每年7%的速度强劲增长。他推行了上任承诺但从未兑现的改革，比如在全国范围内征收商品及服务税。

But unemployment has actually risen during Mr Modi’s tenure¹², according to leaked data that his government has been accused of trying to suppress. The GST was needlessly complex and costly¹³ to administer. Other pressing reforms have fallen by the wayside. India’s banks are still largely in state hands, still prone¹⁴ to lend to the well-connected. And as the election has drawn¹⁵ closer, Mr Modi has resorted to politically expedient¹⁶ policies that are likely to harm the economy. His government hounded the boss of the central bank out of office for keeping interest rates high, appointing a replacement¹⁷ who promptly¹⁸ cut them. And it has unveiled draft rules that would protect domestic e-commerce firms from competition from retailers¹⁹ such as Amazon.

但据泄露的数据显示，在莫迪任期内，失业率实际上有所上升。莫迪政府被控试图压制这些数据。商品和服务税繁复且管理成本高。其他紧迫的改革已被搁置一旁。印度的银行很大程度上仍掌握在政府手中，仍倾向于像关系户放贷。随着大选临近，莫迪采取了可能损害经济的政治权宜之计。其政府将央行行长赶出了办公室，原因是他将利率维持在高位，并任命了一位继任者，后者立即降低了利率。此外，政府还公布了保护国内电子商务公司免受亚马逊等零售商竞争的规则草案。

1 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

2 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

3 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

4 consequential   

adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的

参考例句：

• She was injured and suffered a consequential loss of earnings.她受了伤因而收入受损。
• This new transformation is at least as consequential as that one was.这一新的转变至少和那次一样重要。

5 resolute   

adj.坚决的，果敢的

参考例句：

• He was resolute in carrying out his plan.他坚决地实行他的计划。
• The Egyptians offered resolute resistance to the aggressors.埃及人对侵略者作出坚决的反抗。

6 provocations   

n.挑衅( provocation的名词复数 )；激怒；刺激；愤怒的原因

参考例句：

• We cannot ignore such provocations. 对于这种挑衅，我们不能置之不理。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• They must immediately cease all their provocations. 他们必须停止一切挑衅。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 portrays   

v.画像( portray的第三人称单数 )；描述；描绘；描画

参考例句：

• The museum collection vividly portrays the heritage of 200 years of canals. 博物馆的藏品让运河200 年的历史再现眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The film portrays Gandhi as a kind of superman. 这部电影把甘地描绘成一个超人。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 grit   

n.沙粒，决心，勇气；v.下定决心，咬紧牙关

参考例句：

• The soldiers showed that they had plenty of grit. 士兵们表现得很有勇气。
• I've got some grit in my shoe.我的鞋子里弄进了一些砂子。

9 ambiguity   

n.模棱两可；意义不明确

参考例句：

• The telegram was misunderstood because of its ambiguity.由于电文意义不明确而造成了误解。
• Her answer was above all ambiguity.她的回答毫不含糊。

10 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

11 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 tenure   

n.终身职位；任期；(土地)保有权，保有期

参考例句：

• He remained popular throughout his tenure of the office of mayor.他在担任市长的整个任期内都深得民心。
• Land tenure is a leading political issue in many parts of the world.土地的保有权在世界很多地区是主要的政治问题。

13 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

14 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

15 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

16 expedient   

adj.有用的，有利的；n.紧急的办法，权宜之计

参考例句：

• The government found it expedient to relax censorship a little.政府发现略微放宽审查是可取的。
• Every kind of expedient was devised by our friends.我们的朋友想出了各种各样的应急办法。

17 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

18 promptly   

adv.及时地，敏捷地

参考例句：

• He paid the money back promptly.他立即还了钱。
• She promptly seized the opportunity his absence gave her.她立即抓住了因他不在场给她创造的机会。

19 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。