2021年经济学人 2021美国的发展牵一发而动全身(2)

The degree to which it is felt, however, depends crucially on the policy response, both at home and abroad. Fiscal¹ spillovers are more powerful when recipient² countries are themselves operating below potential. American spending is thus more likely to spill over to the rest of the world if its recovery is much stronger than those of its trading partners. Ordinarily, spillovers provide a strong incentive³ for governments to co-ordinate their stimulus⁴ efforts—lest some tight-fisted economies (eg, those in Europe) free ride on the largesse⁵ leaking from more generous ones. Indeed, on February 12th Janet Yellen, America's treasury⁶ secretary, urged her counterparts in the G7 group of countries to "go big" on stimulus, too. Countries that free ride could find themselves in hot water with Ms Yellen: the Biden administration has promised to be stern with countries that run large, persistent⁷ trade surpluses.

然而，这种感觉的程度关键取决于国内外的政策反应。当受援国自身的运作低于潜在水平时，财政溢出效应会更为强大。因此，如果美国的复苏比它的贸易伙伴更强劲，那么它的支出更有可能扩散到世界其他地方。通常情况下，溢出效应为政府协调其刺激措施提供了强大的动力——以免一些吝啬的经济体(如欧洲国家)搭上从更为慷慨的经济体中溢出的慷慨便车。事实上，2月12日，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦敦促七国集团(G7)的同行们也在刺激政策上“加大力度”。那些搭便车的国家可能会发现自己和耶伦陷入麻烦：拜登政府已承诺，将严厉对待那些长期拥有巨额贸易顺差的国家。

But if America does come close to overheating, then a reluctance⁸ to spend elsewhere may be less irksome than usual, as demand-starved countries serve as a release valve for the pressure building up at home. Growth in global trade seems to have enhanced its pressure-relieving capabilities⁹, according to work by Jane Ihrig, Steven Kamin, Deborah Lindner and Jaime Marquez of the FEDeral Reserve. They reckon that the expansion in trade has served to weaken the link between changes in domestic demand and corresponding shifts in total output, with net exports bearing more of the burden of adjustment to changes in domestic spending. In the late 1990s, for instance, measures of domestic demand grew even faster than real GDP (which was itself growing at a rapid clip). Inflation remained relatively¹⁰ subdued¹¹, however, in part because America's current account deficit¹² swelled¹³. Similarly, a surge in imports this year might dissipate potential inflationary pressures in America while giving a lift to its weaker trade partners.

但如果美国经济真的接近过热，那么不愿在其他地方消费可能不会像往常那样令人讨厌，因为需求匮乏的国家充当了释放国内积聚的压力的阀门。美联储的简·伊里克、史蒂文·卡明、德博拉·林德纳和杰米·马尔克斯的研究显示，全球贸易的增长似乎增强了中国的减压能力。他们认为，贸易的扩张削弱了国内需求变化和相应的总产出变化之间的联系，使净出口承受了更多的调整国内支出变化的负担。例如，在上世纪90年代末，国内需求指标的增长速度甚至超过了实际GDP(GDP本身也在快速增长)。然而，通货膨胀仍然相对温和，部分原因是美国的经常账户赤字膨胀。同样，今年进口的激增可能会消除美国潜在的通胀压力，同时提振其较弱的贸易伙伴。

The biggest uncertainty¹⁴ about the global effects of a hot American economy is the reaction of the FED. Recent work by Kristin Forbes of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that domestic inflation has become more responsive over time to global factors—including the amount of economic slack across the global economy as a whole. Yet wage inflation still seems to respond mostly to domestic conditions. The FED might therefore shrug¹⁵ off price rises later this year, reckoning that short-run price pressures will not translate into sustained inflation until America's job market, and the world economy, is fully¹⁶ recovered. A doveish FED should make for a weaker dollar and easier financial conditions worldwide, adding to the boost that comes from Americans buying more goods from abroad.

美国经济过热对全球影响最大的不确定因素是美联储的反应。麻省理工学院的克莉丝汀·福布斯最近的研究表明，随着时间的推移，国内通货膨胀对全球因素的影响越来越大，包括全球经济整体上的疲软程度。然而，工资上涨似乎仍取决于国内情况。因此，美联储可能会在今年晚些时候对价格上涨不屑一顾，因为在美国就业市场和世界经济完全复苏之前，短期价格压力不会转化为持续的通货膨胀。一个温和的美联储应该会使美元走软，并使全球金融环境更加宽松，从而增加美国人从海外购买更多商品带来的提振。

But a really rip-roaring economy could test the FED's patience, particularly if a yawning current account deficit and soaring asset prices cause it to worry about a build-up of financial risk. The spectre of American interest-rate hikes could frighten global markets, and force emerging economies to adopt less stimulative¹⁷ fiscal and monetary¹⁸ policies. A bit of demand spilling over from America would seem insignificant¹⁹ in comparison. That the FED will suddenly turn hawkish²⁰ still seems unlikely. But if America's temperature runs high enough, the rest of the world may break out in cold sweats.

但是，一个真正蓬勃发展的经济可能会考验美联储的耐心，尤其是，不断扩大的经常账户赤字和不断飙升的资产价格会使其担心金融风险的累积。美国加息的幽灵可能会吓坏全球市场，迫使新兴经济体采取较少刺激性的财政和货币政策。相比之下，来自美国的少量需求似乎微不足道。美联储突然转向鹰派的可能性似乎不大，但如果美国的气温升得足够高，世界其他地方可能会冒出一身冷汗。

1 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

2 recipient   

a.接受的,感受性强的 n.接受者,感受者,容器

参考例句：

• Please check that you have a valid email certificate for each recipient. 请检查是否对每个接收者都有有效的电子邮件证书。
• Colombia is the biggest U . S aid recipient in Latin America. 哥伦比亚是美国在拉丁美洲最大的援助对象。

3 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

4 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

5 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

8 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

9 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

10 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

11 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

12 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

13 swelled   

增强( swell的过去式和过去分词 )； 肿胀； （使）凸出； 充满（激情）

参考例句：

• The infection swelled his hand. 由于感染，他的手肿了起来。
• After the heavy rain the river swelled. 大雨过后，河水猛涨。

14 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

15 shrug   

v.耸肩(表示怀疑、冷漠、不知等)

参考例句：

• With a shrug,he went out of the room.他耸一下肩，走出了房间。
• I admire the way she is able to shrug off unfair criticism.我很佩服她能对错误的批评意见不予理会。

16 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

17 stimulative   

n.刺激，促进因素adj.刺激的，激励的，促进的

参考例句：

• Do you want to enjoy the absolutely stimulative experience? 你想享受魔兽游戏带来的绝对刺激的体验吗？ 来自互联网
• Discussed follow pattern of demand, the way that stimulative technology progresses. 探讨了遵循供求规律，促进技术进步的途径。 来自互联网

18 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

19 insignificant   

adj.无关紧要的，可忽略的，无意义的

参考例句：

• In winter the effect was found to be insignificant.在冬季，这种作用是不明显的。
• This problem was insignificant compared to others she faced.这一问题与她面临的其他问题比较起来算不得什么。

20 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。