2021年经济学人 全球经济迎"疫后繁荣",推高美国通胀隐忧(2)

As booming demand runs up against tight supply, inflation is in the spotlight¹. In April American consumer prices rose by 4.2% year on year, up from 2.6% in March. This partly reflects “base effects”: oil prices are only as high as they were in 2019, but 272% higher than in April 2020. It also reflects a genuine underlying² rise in global prices. China’s factory-gate prices are rising at the fastest rate in over three years.

旺盛的需求遇到紧张的供给，使通货膨胀成为人们关注的焦点。今年4月，美国居民消费价格同比上涨4.2%，高于3月份的2.6%。这在一定程度上反映了“基准效应”：今年油价仅与2019年持平，但比2020年4月高出272%。这也反映了全球价格的上涨实质。中国的出厂价格正以三年多来最快的速度上涨。

Central banks insist that their maximal stimulus³ must continue for fear of jeopardising the nascent⁴ recovery. Lael Brainard, a governor of the Federal Reserve, has said that the inflation spike⁵ as the economy reopens will be “largely transitory”. Jerome Powell, the chairman, sees little reason to worry. The Fed will tolerate somewhat above-target inflation for a bit, in part because it expects prices soon to fall back. So do many forecasters.

各国央行坚持认为，必须继续实施最大规模的刺激措施，以免危及刚刚起步的复苏。美联储理事雷尔·布雷纳德曾表示，随着经济重新开放，通胀飙升将“基本上是暂时的”。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为没必要担心。美联储将在一段时间内容忍略超标的通胀，部分原因是美联储预计物价很快就会回落。许多预测者也抱有同样的想法。

Yet this approach carries dangers. One is that inflation fades slowly. The supply bottlenecks⁶ of the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 cleared fast, but there is no guarantee this will happen now. Inflation expectations may also rise if people come to believe that central banks will act slowly and too late. Many companies are now discussing inflation with their investors⁷. Bond-market traders think the Fed will be forced to act sooner than it wants. Bill Dudley, a former governor, worries that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to as high as 4.5% to cool the economy.

然而，这种做法也带来了隐患。其中一种隐患是通胀消退缓慢。2020年疫情初期的供应瓶颈很快就消除了，但现在还不能保证相同的情况还会发生。如果人们认为央行行动缓慢且运作过晚，通胀预期也可能上升。许多公司现在正与投资者讨论通货膨胀问题。债券市场交易员认为，美联储将被迫提前采取行动。前纽约联储主席比尔·达德利担心，美联储将被迫将利率上调至4.5%，以冷却经济。

This points to the danger that sharp rate rises rock markets. So far the main event has been a sell-off in tech stocks, which is manageable. Banks are well capitalised. Yet the recent implosions of Archegos, a hedge fund, and Greensill Capital, a finance firm, are a reminder⁸ of the hidden leverage⁹ in a financial system that has come to depend on low interest rates. The post-pandemic boom may not always be exciting for the right reasons.

这也表明了另一个隐患，大幅加息可能会使市场动荡。到目前为止，重大事件还只是科技股的抛售，尚在可控范围内。银行资金充足。然而，最近对冲基金Archegos爆仓和金融公司Greensill Capital申请破产提醒我们，金融体系中隐藏的杠杆依赖于低利率。出于这些合理的理由，疫情后的繁荣可能并不总是令人兴奋的。

1 spotlight   

n.公众注意的中心，聚光灯，探照灯，视听，注意，醒目

参考例句：

• This week the spotlight is on the world of fashion.本周引人瞩目的是时装界。
• The spotlight followed her round the stage.聚光灯的光圈随着她在舞台上转。

2 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 nascent   

adj.初生的，发生中的

参考例句：

• That slim book showed the Chinese intelligentsia and the nascent working class.那本小册子讲述了中国的知识界和新兴的工人阶级。
• Despite a nascent democracy movement,there's little traction for direct suffrage.尽管有过一次新生的民主运动，但几乎不会带来直接选举。

5 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

6 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

9 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。