美国国家公共电台 NPR--New GDP report shows an economic turnaround, but don't be fooled

New GDP report shows an economic turnaround, but don't be fooled

Transcript¹

The government's official scorecard shows a rebound² in economic growth during the late summer and early fall. But analysts³ say it overstates the strength of the U.S. economy, just as earlier figures painted an exaggerated picture of weakness.

A report from the Commerce Department released on Thursday shows the nation's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, August and September. That's in contrast to the first six months of the year, when GDP figures showed the economy shrinking.

The apparent improvement, however, is largely the result of fluctuations⁴ in things like international trade, which don't reflect the underlying⁵ health of the economy. They made GDP look artificially weak in the first half of the year, while pumping up the most recent figure.

"If you take a step back and look at GDP, it's gone effectively nowhere over the last year," says Mark Zandi, chief economist⁶ at Moody's Analytics. "One quarter or two it's down a bit. This quarter it's up a bit. But net-net, we're kind of treading water."

The Federal Reserve is trying to hit the brakes on inflation, and curbing⁸ growth

While the labor⁹ market has been robust¹⁰ — adding nearly 3.8 million jobs in the first nine months of the year — high inflation and rising interest rates are expected to weigh on future economic growth.

That's already evident in the slumping¹¹ housing market, a major component¹² of GDP. Residential¹³ investment fell sharply in the third quarter.

"We still have a lot of people that want to buy new or even existing [houses], but they're completely getting squeezed out of the market," says Paul Schwinghammer, a home builder and president of the Indiana Builders Association.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed¹⁴ home loan has more than doubled in the last year — to around 7% — putting homes out of reach for many would-be buyers. As a result, builders broke ground on 8% fewer homes in September than the month before.

"As we finish homes, we're not going to be starting as many in the coming months and the next year as we had been in the last two years," Schwinghammer says.

That's not an accident. The Federal Reserve is deliberately¹⁵ raising borrowing costs in an effort to tamp¹⁶ down demand and curb⁷ inflation. Fed policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by another 0.75 percentage points when they meet next week.

Consumer spending, another big driver of GDP, has held up well so far, even though prices are climbing faster than most people's wages. Spending rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the most recent quarter.

"Consumers are doing their part," Zandi says. "They're not spending with a lot of gusto, but they're out spending."

In some cases, people have been able to finance that spending by tapping extra savings¹⁷ that they piled up during the first two years of the pandemic when they weren't able to travel or eat out as much, and when the federal government was distributing lots of additional cash.

Average account balances are significantly higher now than they were in 2019, before the pandemic, with lower-income households seeing the biggest percentage increase, according to the JPMorgan Chase Institute, which tracks millions of personal checking accounts. Bank balances have begun to fall, however, so those savings won't prop¹⁸ up spending indefinitely.

As the Federal Reserve continues to hit the brakes, many forecasters expect the economy to slide into recession in the coming year. Zandi hopes the United States can avoid that, but he acknowledges it won't be easy.

"We need to catch a break," he says. "We've been pretty unlucky. We got nailed by a global pandemic, which is still creating havoc¹⁹ in many parts of the world. And the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which wasn't even on the radar²⁰ screen a year ago. So we just need a little bit of luck."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 fluctuations   

波动，涨落，起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。

5 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

8 curbing   

n.边石，边石的材料v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Progress has been made in curbing inflation. 在控制通货膨胀方面已取得了进展。
• A range of policies have been introduced aimed at curbing inflation. 为了抑制通货膨胀实施了一系列的政策。

9 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

10 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

11 slumping   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的现在分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Hong Kong's slumping economy also caused a rise in bankruptcy applications. 香港经济低迷，破产申请个案随之上升。
• And as with slumping, over-arching can also be a simple postural habit. 就像弯腰驼背，过度挺直也可能只是一种习惯性姿势。

12 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

13 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

14 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

15 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

16 tamp   

v.捣实，砸实

参考例句：

• Then I tamp down the soil with the back of a rake.然后我用耙子的背将土壤拍实。
• Philpott tamped a wad of tobacco into his pipe.菲尔波特往烟斗里塞了一卷碎烟叶。

17 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

18 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

19 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

20 radar   

n.雷达，无线电探测器

参考例句：

• They are following the flight of an aircraft by radar.他们正在用雷达追踪一架飞机的飞行。
• Enemy ships were detected on the radar.敌舰的影像已显现在雷达上。