Experts expect Putin will try to weaponize its energy resources

Experts expect Putin will try to weaponize its energy resources

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Daniel Yergin, vice² chairman of S&P Global, about the impact of Russian President Putin's move to cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria on Europe's energy economy.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

At this dramatic moment, Daniel Yergin is with us. He's vice chairman of S&P Global and author of acclaimed³ books on the energy industry. He joins us via Skype. Mr. Yergin, welcome back.

DANIEL YERGIN: Thank you. Good to be with you today.

INSKEEP: We heard the Russia move called a warning shot. Europeans have also called it blackmail⁴. How would you describe it?

YERGIN: Well, I think it is a major sign that Putin just a couple of weeks ago said that Europe can't do without energy. I think he's demonstrating with this that he will use energy as a weapon or try to use it. But...

INSKEEP: Is it likely to work?

YERGIN: Well, I think in the case of Poland and Bulgaria, they have easy alternatives, so it really doesn't have much impact. In fact, Poland will buy gas from Germany, which actually will be Russian gas. But I think you have to assume that when Putin threatens things, he will act upon them in his current sort of crazed and irrational⁵ manner.

INSKEEP: That seems like a reasonable assumption, particularly after watching the invasion of Ukraine that seemed to make sense to no one else but that made sense to Putin, and then he went ahead with it. And yet I do notice that they have only cut off gas to two countries that did not use that much of it. Does that imply that Russia itself is afraid to go all the way?

YERGIN: Well, I think the - what's going on with the other countries is, can you find a way to - and some of them where you open a bank account at Gazprom Bank, which is part of Gazprom...

INSKEEP: Yeah.

YERGIN: ...The Russian energy giant, and you put euros there, and somehow they convert them. So it's an iffy situation right now. The European - EU telling companies, don't violate our sanctions. But I think that many companies will, if they can, open these accounts to keep the gas flowing for now. But as the German economics minister says, we have to be prepared for a larger cutoff and a larger - you know, that Putin will, you know, use the energy weapon, which is quite different from what has been Russia's brand for half a century, which is we're a reliable supplier. They're demonstrating that they're not a reliable supplier.

INSKEEP: Do you think it is likely that large European companies are going to go around the desire of their governments or the desire of the European Union and try to find some way to evade⁶ the sanctions?

YERGIN: I think that's already happening. I don't think they're going to do it against their governments; they're going to do it in consultation⁷ with their governments. I think Germany has very interestingly said that it could do without Russian crude oil, but it needs natural gas. And so I think no company will do this without the approval of their government.

INSKEEP: Is the energy weapon a weapon a little bit like nuclear weapons for Russia - they can't really use them without destroying themselves?

YERGIN: Well, I think Putin is - you know, is behaving in an apocalyptic⁸ manner. And his thesis now is that the West is out to destroy Russia. So he might do something like that. But I think that's the longer - the bigger point is that Europe - Russia is going to lose Europe as a market. The Europeans are determined⁹ to no longer be dependent upon Russian energy. Only question now is time, and I think that timeline has gotten shorter as this war has gotten more horrible. Putin is talking about, well, I'll shift my gas supplies to Asia. That will take a lot of time. And so I think, ultimately, he could be stuck with gas that he can't sell because of his actions. And by the way, when he does go to China and say, will you buy some more of my gas, the Chinese will drive a very tough bargain.

INSKEEP: Sure, because he doesn't have other customers. You said an interesting thing there, though, Daniel Yergin. You said that Europeans are already determined to shift away from Russian gas. Might take them a while, but they're determined to do it. I wonder if that becomes a part of Putin's calculations, then. I am recalling that before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin was threatened with all manner of sanctions and, at least in public, persuaded himself and said this explicitly¹⁰, the sanctions are coming anyway - in effect, they're going to go after us regardless, so we might as well invade. That was the logic¹¹ of that statement. Is it possible that could be the logic of Putin's thinking now? I'm going to lose this energy weapon eventually; I might as well use it.

YERGIN: Well, I think that's a very good point because, of course, up until recently, Europe has been talking anyway about leaving natural gas, moving more and more to renewables. He's decried¹² that. So he may actually say, well, we're not going to have this market there in five years anyway. So - but I think in the current situation, as the pressure - as Germany sends weapons now to Ukraine, the likelihood that he will strike back greatly increases. And I think the Europeans, whatever they say it may - they have to be prepared for that.

INSKEEP: Daniel Yergin, even before the developments of the last couple of days, you said that energy markets around the world were in crisis. And I do understand that there's a lot of pressure and that prices are up. But what do you mean by crisis?

YERGIN: Well, crisis means that prices - price of gas, natural gas in Europe, is five times normal, that the balance is very precarious¹³ in global markets because even before this war began, these markets were very tight. And crisis means disruption, means shortages. And I think that risk is there. What is happening - to me, what's got a lot of attention is the cutting off of gas to Poland and to Bulgaria. What's not gotten so much attention is that the German economic minister said, we can do without Russian crude oil in a matter of days. Three or four weeks ago, they said that wasn't possible. The German government has consulted very closely with energy companies and figured out, what are the alternatives? Where can you get supply from? So the one that they can deal with most successfully in short term is crude oil because there's a lot of other oil in the world. When you get to natural gas, you get to the kind of situation where, if Putin actually really acted upon it, you could shut down German industry if he really cut off gas.

INSKEEP: Who, if anybody, benefits from this crisis - Persian Gulf¹⁴ nations, China, somebody else?

YERGIN: Well, I think that China doesn't because it's paying higher energy prices, although with the shutdown, the lockdown in Shanghai and in Beijing, in a sense, their energy consumption is going down. Obviously, short-term revenues go up for energy companies, and it gives them more money to invest in alternatives. I think what you see Germany doing, something - they're saying now they're going to build terminals to receive natural gas, LNG from the United States, but it'll take a year or two to get those built. But I think that in the short term, what Europe has to do is look at what are alternatives to using natural gas and electric generation, which means a short-term expedient¹⁵, means using more coal.

INSKEEP: More coal.

YERGIN: Yes.

INSKEEP: And in spite of their desire to fight climate change, they might be going for more coal.

YERGIN: Well, I think you - that your language is right. You're fighting a war now, which is immediate¹⁶, and climate change is longer term. So I think they're going to have to do expedient things. And Germany is basically already doing that, saying, we're going to extend the life of our coal plants, at least till this conflict gets over.

INSKEEP: Coal industry could be a winner. Daniel Yergin, it's always a pleasure talking with you.

YERGIN: Thank you.

INSKEEP: Thank you so much. He's the vice chairman of S&P Global.

(SOUNDBITE OF THRUPENCE'S "FOREST ON THE SUN")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

3 acclaimed   

adj.受人欢迎的

参考例句：

• They acclaimed him as the best writer of the year. 他们称赞他为当年的最佳作者。
• Confuscius is acclaimed as a great thinker. 孔子被赞誉为伟大的思想家。

4 blackmail   

n.讹诈，敲诈，勒索，胁迫，恫吓

参考例句：

• She demanded ＄1000 blackmail from him.她向他敲诈了1000美元。
• The journalist used blackmail to make the lawyer give him the documents.记者讹诈那名律师交给他文件。

5 irrational   

adj.无理性的，失去理性的

参考例句：

• After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。
• There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

6 evade   

vt.逃避，回避；避开，躲避

参考例句：

• He tried to evade the embarrassing question.他企图回避这令人难堪的问题。
• You are in charge of the job.How could you evade the issue?你是负责人，你怎么能对这个问题不置可否？

7 consultation   

n.咨询；商量；商议；会议

参考例句：

• The company has promised wide consultation on its expansion plans.该公司允诺就其扩展计划广泛征求意见。
• The scheme was developed in close consultation with the local community.该计划是在同当地社区密切磋商中逐渐形成的。

8 apocalyptic   

adj.预示灾祸的，启示的

参考例句：

• The air is chill and stagnant,the language apocalyptic.空气寒冷而污浊，语言则是《启示录》式的。
• Parts of the ocean there look just absolutely apocalyptic.海洋的很多区域看上去完全像是世界末日。

9 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

10 explicitly   

ad.明确地，显然地

参考例句：

• The plan does not explicitly endorse the private ownership of land. 该计划没有明确地支持土地私有制。
• SARA amended section 113 to provide explicitly for a right to contribution. 《最高基金修正与再授权法案》修正了第123条，清楚地规定了分配权。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

11 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

12 decried   

v.公开反对，谴责( decry的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The measures were decried as useless. 这些措施受到指责，说是不起作用。
• The old poet decried the mediocrity of today's writing. 老诗人抨击了现代文体的平庸无奇。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

13 precarious   

adj.不安定的，靠不住的；根据不足的

参考例句：

• Our financial situation had become precarious.我们的财务状况已变得不稳定了。
• He earned a precarious living as an artist.作为一个艺术家，他过得是朝不保夕的生活。

14 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

15 expedient   

adj.有用的，有利的；n.紧急的办法，权宜之计

参考例句：

• The government found it expedient to relax censorship a little.政府发现略微放宽审查是可取的。
• Every kind of expedient was devised by our friends.我们的朋友想出了各种各样的应急办法。

16 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。