美国国家公共电台 NPR--Poll: Two-thirds say don't overturn Roe; the court leak is firing up Democratic voters

Poll: Two-thirds say don't overturn Roe¹; the court leak is firing up Democratic voters

Transcript³

Seven-in-10 U.S. adults, however, say they are in favor of some degree of restrictions⁴ on abortion⁵ rights. That includes 52% of Democrats⁶.

The issue of abortion rights was once again thrown into the hot spotlight⁷ of American politics after the unprecedented⁸ leak of a draft opinion from the Supreme⁹ Court earlier this month that showed the majority-conservative court ready to overturn Roe.

The draft decision — which could differ from how the court ultimately rules — is having an impact with voters, according to the survey. It has fired up Democrats, who had been less enthusiastic about the midterm elections than Republicans, who are favored to take back control of the House and possibly the Senate.

The poll shows that two-thirds of Democrats say the contents of the leak make them more likely to vote in November, as compared to just 40% of Republicans who said so.

"It definitely has them [Democrats] focused as no other issue in the recent months has," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "And to have a gap of that magnitude over the Republicans is something that, at this point, should not go unnoticed."

The survey of 1,304 adults, including 1,213 registered voters, has a margin¹⁰ of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points when adults are referenced and +/- 4.1 percentage points when referring to voters. That means results could be about 4 points higher or lower. The poll was conducted from May 9 to 13 by live interview callers, who reached respondents via cell phone and landline in English and in Spanish.

Democrats gain on congressional ballot¹¹

Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat² in their local congressional district if the election were held today.

For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month's survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.

The question is whether this spike¹² for Democrats lasts. Miringoff sees reason to believe it might.

"My sense of it is that this is not going to be one of those issues that shows up and vanishes soon thereafter," he said, "because so many of the states are going to then have the key decision making role in what the policy is within their jurisdiction¹³."

Some cold water on these numbers, though — these are national figures, and control of the House isn't determined¹⁴ nationally, but in battleground districts. And Democrats acknowledge Republicans have the advantage there.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been circulating its latest internal battleground districts poll among the party's House members. Conducted before the Supreme Court leak, it showed a generic¹⁵ Republican beating a generic Democrat by a 47%-to-39% margin in battleground districts. The survey was first reported by Punchbowl News and confirmed by NPR.

A Democratic official says their polling also shows Democratic House incumbents¹⁶ are averaging about 5 points better than a generic candidate, however.

Undoubtedly¹⁷, though, with inflation remaining high, President Biden's standing¹⁸ is weighing down Democratic candidates across the country. Biden's approval rating in the new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey ticked back down to 39%, though it's notable that a generic Democrat is outperforming Biden in the NPR survey. (That comes mostly from Democrats — more of whom say they would vote today for a Democrat in their congressional district than approve of the job Biden is doing.)

The leak had another impact — hurting the credibility of the Supreme Court as an institution. Just 40% said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the court, down 17 points from 2018, the last time Marist asked the question.

There's a lot of nuance¹⁹ on abortion restrictions

A quarter of respondents said abortion should be available at any point during a pregnancy²⁰. That's up from 18% in 2019.

Just 9% said it should never permitted, which is unchanged from 2019.

But then there's the very gray middle — about 1-in-5 favor allowing abortion in the first three months only; another 13% say it should be allowed in the first six months; another quarter say it should be allowed only in cases of rape²¹, incest or to save the life of the pregnant person; and 10% say it should be allowed only to save that life.

Big majorities support the following changes to state laws:

82% would like to see abortion permitted at any time during pregnancy to protect the life or health of the pregnant person;

63% support providing safe haven²² for people seeking abortions²³ from out of state;

63% support allowing abortion any time during pregnancy in cases of rape or incest.

Big majorities oppose the following:

80% don't want to allow private citizens to sue abortion providers or anyone who assists a pregnant person in getting an abortion;

75% oppose making abortion a crime requiring fines and/or prison time for doctors who perform abortions;

69% oppose allowing abortions only up to the time cardiac activity (about six to eight weeks) is detected;

60% are against allowing abortion only up to the time of viability²⁴ outside the womb at about 24 weeks. Majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans feel this way, but obviously for different reasons.

Access to a key abortion drug is in legal limbo²⁵. Here's how medication abortion works

ROE V. WADE²⁶ AND THE FUTURE OF REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS IN AMERICA

How medication abortion works and what the end of Roe v. Wade could mean for it

Americans are split on 15-week bans and allowing prescription²⁷ drugs that induce abortions mailed to homes.

When it comes to a 15-week ban, except for medical emergencies or when something is severely²⁸ wrong with the fetus²⁹, people are split, with 49% opposing and 48% supporting it.

A slim majority of Republicans support the ban (53%), while a majority of Democrats oppose (57%). And independents are split at 49% to 46% supporting one.

On mailing abortion-inducing prescription drugs, 51% say they oppose allowing that, while 47% support it.

There's a huge partisan³⁰ divide here with 7-in-10 of Democrats in favor and 8-in-10 Republicans opposed.

A majority of abortions actually take place early on in a pregnancy with the use of medication, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a pro-abortion rights group that tracks abortions. It also notes that overall nearly 9-in-10 abortions take place in the first three months of a pregnancy.

1 roe   

n.鱼卵；獐鹿

参考例句：

• We will serve smoked cod's roe at the dinner.宴会上我们将上一道熏鳕鱼子。
• I'll scramble some eggs with roe?我用鱼籽炒几个鸡蛋好吗？

2 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

5 abortion   

n.流产，堕胎

参考例句：

• She had an abortion at the women's health clinic.她在妇女保健医院做了流产手术。
• A number of considerations have led her to have a wilful abortion.多种考虑使她执意堕胎。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 spotlight   

n.公众注意的中心，聚光灯，探照灯，视听，注意，醒目

参考例句：

• This week the spotlight is on the world of fashion.本周引人瞩目的是时装界。
• The spotlight followed her round the stage.聚光灯的光圈随着她在舞台上转。

8 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

9 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

10 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

11 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

12 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

13 jurisdiction   

n.司法权，审判权，管辖权，控制权

参考例句：

• It doesn't lie within my jurisdiction to set you free.我无权将你释放。
• Changzhou is under the jurisdiction of Jiangsu Province.常州隶属江苏省。

14 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

15 generic   

adj.一般的，普通的，共有的

参考例句：

• I usually buy generic clothes instead of name brands.我通常买普通的衣服，不买名牌。
• The generic woman appears to have an extraordinary faculty for swallowing the individual.一般妇女在婚后似乎有特别突出的抑制个性的能力。

16 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

17 undoubtedly   

adv.确实地，无疑地

参考例句：

• It is undoubtedly she who has said that.这话明明是她说的。
• He is undoubtedly the pride of China.毫无疑问他是中国的骄傲。

18 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

19 nuance   

n.(意义、意见、颜色)细微差别

参考例句：

• These users will easily learn each nuance of the applications they use.这些用户会很快了解他们所使用程序的每一细微差别。
• I wish I hadn't become so conscious of every little nuance.我希望我不要变得这样去思索一切琐碎之事。

20 pregnancy   

n.怀孕，怀孕期

参考例句：

• Early pregnancy is often accompanied by nausea.怀孕早期常有恶心的现象。
• Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of miscarriage.怀孕期吸烟会增加流产的危险。

21 rape   

n.抢夺，掠夺，强奸；vt.掠夺，抢夺，强奸

参考例句：

• The rape of the countryside had a profound ravage on them.对乡村的掠夺给他们造成严重创伤。
• He was brought to court and charged with rape.他被带到法庭并被指控犯有强奸罪。

22 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

23 abortions   

n.小产( abortion的名词复数 )；小产胎儿；（计划）等中止或夭折；败育

参考例句：

• The Venerable Master: By not having abortions, by not killing living beings. 上人：不堕胎、不杀生。 来自互联网
• Conclusion Chromosome abnormality is one of the causes of spontaneous abortions. 结论：染色体异常是导致反复自然流产的原因之一。 来自互联网

24 viability   

n.存活(能力)

参考例句：

• What is required to achieve or maintain such viability? 要达到或维持这种生存能力需要什么？
• Scientists are experimenting to find ways to ensure the viability of seeds for even longer periods of time. 正如我们所说，科学家正在试验努力寻找让种子的生命力更加延长的方法。

25 limbo   

n.地狱的边缘；监狱

参考例句：

• His life seemed stuck in limbo and he could not go forward and he could not go back.他的生活好像陷入了不知所措的境地，进退两难。
• I didn't know whether my family was alive or dead.I felt as if I was in limbo.我不知道家人是生是死，感觉自己茫然无措。

26 wade   

v.跋涉，涉水；n.跋涉

参考例句：

• We had to wade through the river to the opposite bank.我们只好涉水过河到对岸。
• We cannot but wade across the river.我们只好趟水过去。

27 prescription   

n.处方，开药；指示，规定

参考例句：

• The physician made a prescription against sea- sickness for him.医生给他开了个治晕船的药方。
• The drug is available on prescription only.这种药只能凭处方购买。

28 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

29 fetus   

n.胎，胎儿

参考例句：

• In the fetus,blood cells are formed in different sites at different ages.胎儿的血细胞在不同时期生成在不同的部位。
• No one knows why a fetus is not automatically rejected by the mother's immune system. 没有人知道为什么母亲的免疫系统不会自动排斥胎儿。

30 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。