美国国家公共电台 NPR--GDP report will give clues as to whether the U.S. is in a recession

GDP report will give clues as to whether the U.S. is in a recession

Transcript¹

The federal government is releasing its latest update on the U.S. economy. But numbers showing negative growth in the second quarter of the year will add to fears that a recession is underway.

ASMA KHALID, HOST:

We now have an important report card on the state of the economy. From April through June, the U.S. economy contracted, again - this time, by 0.9%. This is the second straight quarter of negative growth, and that will, of course, fuel fears that the U.S. economy is in a recession. The latest GDP report comes against a backdrop of sky-high inflation that already has Americans increasingly worried about their own financial situation. NPR's David Gura joins us now to walk us through this latest data. So, David, what exactly happened in the second quarter?

DAVID GURA, BYLINE²: So, as you said, we saw another contraction³, smaller than in the first quarter, but economic growth did decline. And broadly speaking, this is attributable to businesses and the government spending less. Companies are starting to retrench⁴. Remember, borrowing is getting more expensive, so there is less money to invest. They're becoming more cautious. Retailers⁵ didn't build up inventories⁶. The housing market, which was so hot for so long, has started to cool down. Of course, interest rates have gone up. You know, as I look at the data here, looking for bright spots, wages were up. People were spending in restaurants. They were going on trips. But broadly speaking, this is bad news politically for the White House. There is this rule of thumb among economists⁷ that two consecutive⁸ quarters of negative growth signals a recession. That's not the official definition, but the Biden administration knows it's going to be a problem for them and for Democrats⁹ broadly as we approach the midterms.

KHALID: You know, you mentioned the Biden administration, David. My day job is I cover the White House. And I will say that we have seen this White House go to great lengths over the past few days to make sure that reporters know that even seeing two quarters of negative growth does not necessarily mean that we are in a recession.

GURA: They have. They've been calling econ reporters as well, and their message is that nuance¹⁰ is important here. President Biden and his advisers¹¹ have tried to get ahead of this report with what I guess we could call a prebuttal. And he and Treasury¹² Secretary Janet Yellen are going to address these data in separate speeches later today. Janet Yellen appeared on NBC's "Meet The Press" on Sunday.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "MEET THE PRESS")

JANET YELLEN: A recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors¹³ of the economy. We just don't have that.

GURA: She pointed¹⁴ to consumer spending, which has continued to grow, credit quality, how households are doing and a jobs market that's still very strong. In June, the U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs. But the challenge for the White House is a majority of registered voters believe we are in a recession already, given slowing growth and high inflation. And ahead of the midterm elections, Republicans are saying Democrats are making a semantic argument when people are suffering.

KHALID: And, David, what is the commonly accepted definition of a recession? Help us understand that.

GURA: The official designation of a recession in the United States is made by a committee of eight economists from a private, nonpartisan group called the NBER, the National Bureau of Economic Research. That organization says GDP is an important factor, but they also take into consideration other economic indicators¹⁵ - income, for instance, how much factories are producing and the unemployment rate. You know, the problem with relying on the NBER's call is that it tends to take a long time, many months, for these economists to make that official determination. So there's a lag. It usually happens well after business leaders and the rest of us, for that matter, see signs a deep downturn is underway.

KHALID: OK. So, David, we have been talking at length here about the definition of a recession and what economists say. You know, leave that aside for a moment. How is the overall economy doing?

GURA: Well, in some ways, it's doing well. Again, the jobs market is strong. Hiring is solid. The unemployment rate keeps falling. Last month, it was at 3.6%. But inflation is still red hot, the worst it's been in four decades. Home prices keep soaring; so does rent. The stock market has plummeted¹⁶, so retirement¹⁷ accounts have taken a big hit. And I want to come back to sentiment, how people feel about the economy right now. This matters. Politicians know that. Policymakers also know that. It matters more than a highly technical definition.

KHALID: NPR's David Gura, thanks as always.

GURA: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

4 retrench   

v.节省，削减

参考例句：

• Shortly afterwards,cuts in defence spending forced the aerospace industry to retrench.不久之后，国防开支的削减迫使航空航天业紧缩开支。
• Inflation has forced us to retrench.因通货膨胀我们不得不紧缩开支。

5 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

6 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

9 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 nuance   

n.(意义、意见、颜色)细微差别

参考例句：

• These users will easily learn each nuance of the applications they use.这些用户会很快了解他们所使用程序的每一细微差别。
• I wish I hadn't become so conscious of every little nuance.我希望我不要变得这样去思索一切琐碎之事。

11 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

12 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

13 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

14 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

15 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

16 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。