美国国家公共电台 NPR--Is the U.S. in a recession? The committee that decides is looking at all the data

Is the U.S. in a recession? The committee that decides is looking at all the data

Transcript¹

The White House insists the U.S. economy is not facing a recession, even after gross domestic product contracted for two consecutive² quarters. That marker usually indicates a recession.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

We learned last week that the main measure of economic growth, gross domestic product, contracted slightly in the second quarter, and it also contracted in the first quarter, which kind of is the traditional definition of a recession. But the White House recently said no. Even two quarters of declining GDP was, quote, "unlikely to qualify as a recession." All right. So what gives? Planet Money's Mary Childs joins us to unravel³ this mystery.

Mary, all right. So what is a recession?

MARY CHILDS, BYLINE⁴: A recession is a period of more than a few months in which the economy is contracting. That colloquial⁵ definition of two quarters of declining GDP is not the formal definition 'cause there's actually a committee that decides - a group of eight economists⁶ that meet to demarcate when a downturn started or stopped.

MART?NEZ: A committee - all right. So tell us about the committee.

CHILDS: So it's the Business Cycle Dating Committee, and it's housed within the National Bureau of Economic Research.

I called up a former member, Harvard professor Ben Friedman, and I asked him why this group doesn't just use the two-quarters-of-shrinking-GDP rule.

BEN FRIEDMAN: If you had a question about your personal physical health, for example, and you went to the doctor, and the doctor said, well, Mary, we have taken your temperature. And your temperature is 98 point whatever, and that's the only thing it's worth looking at, I'm guessing you'd get another doctor very quickly.

CHILDS: I would, indeed.

FRIEDMAN: That just doesn't make any sense.

CHILDS: He also said that often those GDP figures get revised, sometimes revised substantially.

MART?NEZ: All right. Then what does the group look at then?

CHILDS: They look at measures of how people and businesses are doing, like personal income, employment, consumer spending, wholesale⁷ retail⁸ sales and industrial production. And many of those measures seem to be pointing to a slowdown but not necessarily a recession. Personal income and spending adjusted for inflation are still really high, though the most recent data don't look as good as they had. And unemployment is still near historic lows. So they're watching metrics like those to see how consumers in the economy are holding up amid all this inflation.

MART?NEZ: All right. So the business cycle dating committee hasn't yet said we're in a recession. But why not? I mean, what would it take for them to call this a recession?

CHILDS: The committee has a formal checklist - three qualifications that a downturn must satisfy to be a recession. Those are depth, diffusion⁹ and duration - how severe, how widespread and how long. And every recession will be heavier on one than the other. But they have to meet each to some degree. So far, whatever we're in hasn't yet checked all of those boxes. But even if we are in a recession, we may not get the label for a long time because the committee is not in a hurry. They're entirely¹⁰ uninterested in being timely. They're only interested in being right because the purpose of declaring a recession start and stop is to lay a solid foundation for research, to create a common language, an agreed-upon start and end date, so that future economists studying booms and busts¹² can try to disentangle what caused a boom or a bust¹¹.

MART?NEZ: That's Planet Money's Mary Childs.

Mary, thanks for untangling for us.

CHILDS: Thanks for having me.

(SOUNDBITE OF ADRIENNE INDIGO AND PAUL GRANT SONG, "REBIRTH")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

3 unravel   

v.弄清楚（秘密）；拆开，解开，松开

参考例句：

• He was good with his hands and could unravel a knot or untangle yarn that others wouldn't even attempt.他的手很灵巧，其他人甚至都不敢尝试的一些难解的绳结或缠在一起的纱线，他都能解开。
• This is the attitude that led him to unravel a mystery that long puzzled Chinese historians.正是这种态度使他解决了长期以来使中国历史学家们大惑不解的谜。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 colloquial   

adj.口语的，会话的

参考例句：

• It's hard to understand the colloquial idioms of a foreign language.外语里的口头习语很难懂。
• They have little acquaintance with colloquial English. 他们对英语会话几乎一窍不通。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

8 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

9 diffusion   

n.流布；普及；散漫

参考例句：

• The invention of printing helped the diffusion of learning.印刷术的发明有助于知识的传播。
• The effect of the diffusion capacitance can be troublesome.扩散电容会引起麻烦。

10 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

11 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

12 busts   

半身雕塑像( bust的名词复数 )； 妇女的胸部； 胸围； 突击搜捕

参考例句：

• Dey bags swells up and busts. 那奶袋快胀破了。
• Marble busts all looked like a cemetery. 大理石的半身象，简直就象是坟山。