美国国家公共电台 NPR--Economic leaders and heads of state gather in Davos to discuss global challenges

Economic leaders and heads of state gather in Davos to discuss global challenges

Transcript¹

At the World Economic Forum² in Switzerland, economic leaders have a grim view of the global economy. NPR's A Martinez talks to Ken³ Rogoff, a professor of international economics at Harvard.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Many of the world's economic and political leaders are gathering⁴ at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland this week to discuss the globe's many challenges, which includes soaring inflation, supply chain disruptions and also the war in Ukraine. With us now to take the temperature of the global economy is Ken Rogoff. He's a professor of international economics at Harvard and a former chief economist⁵ for the International Monetary⁶ Fund. He's joining us now from Davos. Ken, you're there. How do all the bigwigs there feel about the world's economy right now?

KEN ROGOFF: Well, you know, surprisingly, despite all the list of things you said, they're - at least the CEOs - there are a lot of them here - feel better than I feel about the world economy. But, you know, maybe they don't see what's coming around the corner is all I can say.

MART?NEZ: Have they indicated why they would feel so good about it?

ROGOFF: I think part of it is China was in lockdown. Like, 10% of the population has been in lockdown at any one point the last few years. And everyone else who's not in lockdown is afraid they're in lockdown. So they don't go out shopping. They don't go out buying stuff. Chinese tourists have - all over the world, they haven't been going. So this idea that China is back, whether it is or not, I think that's the single thing that has them the most excited. I don't know why they're not more worried about the war in the Ukraine.

MART?NEZ: So why are you not as excited as them?

ROGOFF: Well, I mean, I think it's a few things. One is I am more worried about the war in Ukraine. I was with the Ukrainian parliamentarians this morning and, you know, talking about, you know, the problems and the uncertainties⁷. And I don't know what's around the corner there. But then on the economic side, interest rates have been going up. They've been going up a lot. We haven't seen that in many decades. And you don't feel the pain right away. And so I think there's worse to come. I hope they're right. But my gut⁸ instinct is, you know, it's still a pretty - 2023 is possibly going to be the worst year we've had besides 2008 and, you know, the pandemic.

MART?NEZ: You're a bit of a bummer, Ken. I was about to say, I mean, that is a bleak⁹ prediction for the upcoming year.

ROGOFF: Yeah, I mean, there's bad years, and there's bad years. The pandemic was just horrible. And the global financial crisis is horrible. With luck, this'll be sort of a very mediocre¹⁰ year where inflation's still too high. You know, growth isn't as good as we'd like. But on the bright side, I will say, in the United States in particular, jobs have still been strong. Productivity might not be strong. So we're not, like, making as much as we'd like. But it's definitely not all bad at the moment, not at all. The question is what lies around the corner? And there are just a lot of risks. And let's go back to Russia and the Ukraine. I - maybe I'm, you know, too pessimistic, but I don't see an end game. And so it worries me that there are more shocks to come. That's the big thing, that and the pandemic.

MART?NEZ: Considering how the war in Ukraine has been such a big part of why the economy - the world economy is the way it is, if you don't see an end game, yeah, I could see why their - 2023 would not seem so great.

ROGOFF: It's so hard to know in a situation like this. But again, you know, when we're coming out of this pandemic, which we haven't seen in a hundred years, it's very hard to know what's around the corner. So I hope the CEOs here who are optimistic about what's going on, at least in the economy, prove to be right, that that's a silver lining¹¹ in what I'm still saying is probably a tough year.

MART?NEZ: Ken Rogoff, professor of international economics at Harvard. Ken, thanks.

ROGOFF: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

3 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

4 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

7 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

8 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

9 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

10 mediocre   

adj.平常的，普通的

参考例句：

• The student tried hard,but his work is mediocre. 该生学习刻苦，但学业平庸。
• Only lazybones and mediocre persons could hanker after the days of messing together.只有懒汉庸才才会留恋那大锅饭的年代。

11 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。