美国国家公共电台 NPR--Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the Kremlin

Putinology: the art of analyzing¹ the man in the Kremlin

Transcript²

"He was seeing Ukraine slip away from his orbit. And when he saw that he could no longer control it, it was pretty clear to me that he was going to try to move in and attempt a regime change," said Alperovitch.

Americans and others who closely studied the Communist leadership of the Soviet³ Union used to be called "Kremlinologists." Now there's a new generation of analysts⁴ who could be called "Putinologists," those seeking to understand Russia today by deconstructing its leader and the war he's waging in Ukraine.

Alperovitch was born in Moscow and came to the U.S. at age 13 in 1994. He's never returned to Russia, though that country — and Putin — have shaped his life.

He was a founder⁵ of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which often investigated Russian computer hacks⁶, like the 2016 breach⁷ of the Democratic National Committee.

Here's how he describes the Russian leader: "I've always viewed him as a gambler. Most of the time he's gotten lucky. (Ukraine) is the one gamble that's probably his biggest, which has not worked out well so far."

Alperovitch now heads Silverado Policy Accelerator, a think tank with a strong focus on Russia and Putin.

"I think 'Putinologist' is a good tag line," said Alperovitch. "He sees himself as a new czar, that he has more power today as a Russian leader than really anyone has since (Soviet dictator Josef) Stalin."

Kremlinolgists tried to interpret the Soviet Union from fragmentary information coming out of highly secretive Communist leadership, which often consisted of multiple factions⁸.

Some analysts argue against Putinology, saying it's too simplistic to interpret a sprawling⁹ country like Russia through the study of one man. Some say the notion of an all-powerful leader also plays into the hands of Putin, who would like Russian citizens and the wider world to believe he has control over all aspects of Russia.

Yet Putin has consolidated¹⁰ his hold on Russia throughout his more than two decades in power, and critical decisions — like invading Ukraine — are widely seen as the work of Putin alone.

This has created a demand for Putinologists — like Julia Ioffe — who accepts the label with some reluctance¹¹.

"It's something I fought for a long time," said Ioffe, who writes for Puck News and is often interviewed by other news organizations. "But at the same time, people in the West have a really hard time understanding him. Somebody needs to translate him for the West. So OK, I'll do it."

She left Moscow for the U.S. with her family at age 7 in 1990. In college at Princeton, she initially¹² planned to be a doctor.

"But I couldn't resist Soviet history and switched tracks," she noted¹³. "I kept trying to do something else and kept getting sucked in professionally. So I've basically been doing this, in one form or another, my whole professional life."

That included a three-year stint¹⁴ in Moscow a decade ago. Her editor at the time suggested she write a column called "Kremlinology 2012."

"It was supposed to be a kind of tongue-in-cheek thing because it was like, 'Who does Kremlinology anymore?'" she recalled. "But the system was becoming more and more and more Soviet, and there were fewer and fewer ways to get into it, to understand it. So, it's back."

Ioffe traveled to Russia until a few years ago. She often writes about the way Putin shaped Russian society and prepared it for his military adventures.

"He created this cult¹⁵ around World War II. That glorifies¹⁶ war. That sanctifies war. And then once a war starts, it's pretty easy to convince Russians that this is a war just like that and that they need to go in and do it," she said.

Michael Kofman says emphatically he should not be called a Putinologist. He's an expert on Russia's military — a specialty¹⁷ that nearly vanished when the Soviet Union collapsed¹⁸.

"The field of Russian military studies had almost died or was on life support," he said. "So I found myself in many respects trying to work to help revive the field."

Kofman does this with his work at the Center for Naval¹⁹ Analyses, a government-funded research group. He's also a regular on podcasts, including appearances with Alperovitch.

He was born in Ukraine when it was still part of the Soviet Union and left at age 10, just before the 1991 Soviet breakup.

Kofman often returns to Ukraine and was there last October for a close-up view of the war. Despite his deep knowledge, he's wary²⁰ of making predictions.

"Military analysts like myself thought the war was going to come, but got the initial period of war — how the Russian military was going to actually invade and how those early weeks were likely to shake out — wrong ourselves. So I spent time updating my views," he said.

He expects to go back to Ukraine. But none of these analysts plan to visit Russia in the near term.

"I would love to go back and see, and just feel how the city and the country are experiencing this war, just to get a pulse, just to get a temperature check," said Ioffe.

But she adds, "You can go to jail for spreading 'fakes about the Russian army.' It feels incredibly risky²¹ to go."

Dmitri Alperovitch knows he would not be welcome.

"One of the most bizarre things that's happened to me last year is getting sanctioned by Russia, the country that I was born in," he said. "It is somewhat of a badge of honor, but nevertheless there's certainly a bittersweet feeling about it."

Putinologists may now be in great demand, but incurring²² the wrath²³ of the Kremlin is an occupational hazard.

1 analyzing   

v.分析；分析( analyze的现在分词 )；分解；解释；对…进行心理分析n.分析

参考例句：

• Analyzing the date of some socialist countries presents even greater problem s. 分析某些社会主义国家的统计数据，暴露出的问题甚至更大。 来自辞典例句
• He undoubtedly was not far off the mark in analyzing its predictions. 当然，他对其预测所作的分析倒也八九不离十。 来自辞典例句

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

6 hacks   

黑客

参考例句：

• But there are hacks who take advantage of people like Teddy. 但有些无赖会占类似泰迪的人的便宜。 来自电影对白
• I want those two hacks back here, right now. 我要那两个雇工回到这儿，现在就回。 来自互联网

7 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

8 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

9 sprawling   

adj.蔓生的，不规则地伸展的v.伸开四肢坐[躺]( sprawl的现在分词 )；蔓延；杂乱无序地拓展；四肢伸展坐着（或躺着）

参考例句：

• He was sprawling in an armchair in front of the TV. 他伸开手脚坐在电视机前的一张扶手椅上。
• a modern sprawling town 一座杂乱无序拓展的现代城镇

10 consolidated   

a.联合的

参考例句：

• With this new movie he has consolidated his position as the country's leading director. 他新执导的影片巩固了他作为全国最佳导演的地位。
• Those two banks have consolidated and formed a single large bank. 那两家银行已合并成一家大银行。

11 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

12 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

13 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

14 stint   

v.节省，限制，停止；n.舍不得化，节约，限制；连续不断的一段时间从事某件事

参考例句：

• He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子们身上花钱毫不吝惜。
• We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我们希望您不吝指教。

15 cult   

n.异教，邪教；时尚，狂热的崇拜

参考例句：

• Her books aren't bestsellers,but they have a certain cult following.她的书算不上畅销书，但有一定的崇拜者。
• The cult of sun worship is probably the most primitive one.太阳崇拜仪式或许是最为原始的一种。

16 glorifies   

赞美( glorify的第三人称单数 )； 颂扬； 美化； 使光荣

参考例句：

• He denies that the movie glorifies violence. 他否认这部影片美化暴力。
• This magazine in no way glorifies gangs. 这本杂志绝对没有美化混混们。

17 specialty   

n.(speciality)特性，特质；专业，专长

参考例句：

• Shell carvings are a specialty of the town.贝雕是该城的特产。
• His specialty is English literature.他的专业是英国文学。

18 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

19 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

20 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

21 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

22 incurring   

遭受，招致，引起( incur的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。
• He spoke to the Don directly, taking a chance on incurring Michael's ill will. 他直接向老头子谈自己的意见，这显然要冒引起迈克尔反感的风险。 来自教父部分

23 wrath   

n.愤怒，愤慨，暴怒

参考例句：

• His silence marked his wrath. 他的沉默表明了他的愤怒。
• The wrath of the people is now aroused. 人们被激怒了。