经济学人255:印度身陷困境 最后审判日

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
India in trouble
印度身陷困境
The reckoning
最后审判日
Why India is particularly vulnerable to the turbulence¹ rattling² emerging markets
为什么印度新兴市场特别容易受到震荡
ON THE morning of August 17th most of India's economic policymakers gathered in the prime minister's house in Delhi.
8月17日上午，大多数印度经济政策制定者聚集在德里的总理府邸。
They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included the balance-of-payments crisis of 1991.
他们聚集那里为了发布一项官方的1981年到1997年间的经济史，这个时期包括1991年的国际收支危机。
The mood was tense.
氛围十分紧张。
22222222222222_副本.jpgIndia, said Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.
总理曼莫汉·辛格说，印度面临十分困难的状况。
Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bank of India.
历史重演了吗？即将退休的印度央行行长苏巴拉奥问道，
As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?
好像我们没有从一次经济危机到另一次经济危机中什么都没有学到？
The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.
之前，印度金融市场最困难的时期持续了很多年了。
The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.
卢比贬值，股市坍塌。
Money-market rates rose.
货币市场汇率上升。
The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fell sharply.
人们认为满是坏账或者缺少存款资金的银行股份迅速贬值。
The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th in response to incipient³ signs of capital flight.
为应对早期资金外流现象，8月14日实施的资本控制使得证券抛售变得更糟糕。
They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.
他们减少了印度居民和公司可以带出国家的资金量。
Foreign investors⁴ took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much as Malaysia did during its crisis in 1998.
外国投资者受到了惊吓，担心印度也会冻结他们的资金，就像马来西亚1998年经济危机的时候采取的措施一样。
India's authorities have since ruled that out.
印度当局后来排除了那种可能。
But markets keep sliding.
但是市场持续下滑。
On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.
8月20日，印度央行称会试着稳定债券收益率。
The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level three months ago.
卢比已贬值至一美元64卢比，价值空前的低，比三个月前水平低13%。
It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind⁵ since 1991.
人们普遍认为，这个国家处在自从1991年以来最糟糕的经济窘境中。
India is not being singled out.
印度不是被单挑出来的。
Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its asset purchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.
从五月份以来，当美联储首次表明会放慢其资产收购的进程时，投资者已经开始适应没有超低息政策的世界。
There has been a great withdrawal⁶ of funds from emerging markets, where most currencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.
大量资金从新兴市场撤出，这些市场过去的三个月卢比对美元汇率下降了5-15%。
Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.
债券收益从巴西上升到了泰国水平。
Some governments have intervened.
一些政府介入了。
On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster⁷ its currency.
7月11日，印度尼西亚提升了其基准利率来加强货币。
On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensure stability.
8月21日，印尼总统表明不久就会宣布进一步的措施来确保经济稳定。
India, Asia's third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.
印度，亚洲第三大经济，却比大多数国家更脆弱。
Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rate seen during the 2003-08 boom.
经济新闻让人们失望了两年了，经济增长率降到4-5%，其中一半的经济增长率还是在2003-08年经济蓬勃时期发展起来的。
It may fall further.
经济增长率还会进一步下跌。
Consumer-price inflation remains⁸ stubborn at 10%.
消费物价上涨仍保持在10%。
A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package of reforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.
由财务部长帕拉尼亚潘·奇丹巴南为从繁文缛节中通过一系列改革和免费的大型工业项目而发起的运动还没有效果。
An election is due by May 2014, adding to uncertainty⁹.
选举在2014年5月，也增加了不确定性。
India's dependence¹⁰ on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.
印度对外资的依赖程度也很高并且上升很迅速。
The current-account deficit¹¹ soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2012, although it is expected to be 4-5% this year.
往来账户逆差2012年底急升至将近GDP的7%，虽然今年预期逆差是4-5%。
External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDP—the ratio stands at 21% today—but debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier¹².
外债相对于GDP没有上升很多—现在比例在21%—但是债务更多是短期的，因此更危险。
Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.
财政需求总额下一年是2.5亿美元。
India's reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage¹³ ratio of 1.1 times.
印度的储备是2.79亿，是偿还能力系数的1.1倍。
That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weaker than many of its peers.
2007-08这个储备下降了3倍多，也使印度看起来比许多同样的国家看起来更弱。
It is therefore vital that foreign equity¹⁴ investors stay put.
因此，外资股权投资者留在原处很重要。
They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.
按现时价格计算，他们可能拥有2亿美元的股份。
They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would have no defence.
自从五月份以来，他们只卖了大约3百万股份，但是如果他们撤出，印度将失去所有的防御。
This is not a repeat of 1991.
这不是1991年的一种重复。
When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvana was hitting the big time.
当印度最后一次经济危机的时候，鲍里斯·叶利钦在莫斯科正要上台，涅槃乐队正出名。
Things have changed in financial terms, too.
融资条件也发生了变化。
Back then India had a fixed¹⁵ exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself trying to defend—it had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.
当时，印度有固定汇率，这是即将破产的国家努力维护的，为了还贷款，它必须空运黄金给英格兰银行。
Today India has a floating exchange rate and a government with almost no foreign-currency debt.
今天，印度有浮动汇率，还有一个几乎没有外币债务的政府。
A slump¹⁶ in the currency poses no immediate¹⁷ threat to the government's solvency¹⁸.
货币的贬值对政府的偿付能力没有直接的威胁。
The pain will be felt in other ways.
痛苦会以其他方式感受到。
Private firms that owe most of India's foreign debt will be under intense strain, particularly if the rupee drops further.
欠了绝大多数印度外国债务的私人公司将会非常紧张，尤其是如果卢比进一步下跌。
Some will go bust¹⁹.
有些公司会破产。
Market interest rates will stay high, causing a liquidity²⁰ squeeze.
市场利率会居高不下，导致流动性短缺。
All this makes life even tougher for India's state-owned banks, which already have sour loans equivalent to 10-12% of their loan books.
这些情况使得印度国有银行的日子更难过，这已经恶化了等同于贷款账项的10-12%。
Inflation will rise.
通货膨胀会加剧。
And the government's finances will be under strain as the cost of its subsidies²¹ on imported fuel gets bigger.
政府财政会随着进口燃料补贴上升而承受巨大压力。
There is probably little the authorities can do to shore up the currency in the short term.
短期内，政府当局可能没有什么可以做支撑货币。
The rupee is one of the world's most actively²² traded currencies and at least half the turnover²³ is abroad.
卢比是世界上最活跃的交易货币之一，至少有一半的营业额在国外。
Privately²⁴, officials reckon the rupee's fair value, taking into account India's higher inflation and productivity over the past few years, is a little less than 60 per dollar, so the market has yet to overshoot wildly.
私底下，考虑到近几年印度更严重的通货膨胀和生产率，官员认为卢比的公允价值低于1美元60卢比，所以市场还没有严重超过。
Raghuram Rajan, the incoming governor of the RBI, is likely to take a hands-off approach.
即将上任的印度央行管理人拉古拉姆·拉詹可能会采取不干涉的措施。
That doesn't mean the government will—or should.
这不意味着政府会或者必须这么做。
On August 19th it banned the import through airports of duty-free flat-screen TVs, which Indians can often be seen heaving through check-in at Dubai.
8月19日，印度禁止空运进口免税平板电视，经常可以看到印度人在迪拜办理登记手续处拖着这些东西。
It may seek to raise duties further on gold imports, which Indians are addicted²⁵ to in part because it is seen as a hedge against inflation.
印度人在某种程度上沉迷于此因为这被看做是来抵消通过膨胀造成损失。
Gross gold imports were 3% of GDP last year, blowing a huge hole in the external finances.
去年黄金进口总值是GDP的3%，给外部融资带来了巨大的损失。
History suggests the higher taxes on gold imports are, the worse smuggling²⁶ gets.
历史表明进口黄金税收越高，走私越严重。
But India imports 800-odd tonnes of bullion²⁷ a year. That's a lot of gold to hide in suitcases.
但是印度每年进口大约800公吨金条，那会有很多金子要藏在箱子里。
The government will also try to persuade the Supreme²⁸ Court to lift its ban on iron-ore exports, imposed after a series of corruption²⁹ scams.
在一系列腐败骗局发生后，政府也会试着说服最高法院解除铁矿出口的禁令。
At its peak this industry generated exports worth about 0.4% of GDP, although experts doubt that mothballed mines can be ramped³¹ up fast.
在其全盛时期，这项工业出口价值约0.4%的GDP，虽然专家们怀疑封存矿山是否会增加很快。
The government may also cut fuel subsidies.
政府可能还会减少燃料补贴。
That would reduce demand for imported fuel and help it hit a fiscal-deficit target of about 7% of GDP.
这会减少对进口燃料的需求，并帮助达成GDP7%的财政赤字目标。
The longer-term solution to the balance-of-payments problem may be to ramp³⁰ up India's manufacturing sector³², and thus its industrial exports.
国际收支差额问题的长期解决措施可能是增加印度制造业以及其工业出口。
But that will take a big improvement in the business climate, not just a cheap currency.
但是那样会大幅改善商业环境，不仅仅是廉价的货币。
Despite the rupee's 27% tumble in the past three years there is scant³³ sign of global manufacturers shifting production to India.
虽然卢比价值在过去三年下跌了27%，有迹象表明全球制造商正将生产向印度转移。
India's position could still get worse.
印度的处境可能仍然在恶化。
But assuming things stabilise, when the official histories come to be written about 2013, what might they say?
但是如果形势稳定下来了，当要记载2013年的官方历史时，他们会说什么呢？
Most likely that the rupee's slump caused a severe shock to the economy that made a recovery in growth rates even harder.
最有可能的是卢比下跌对经济产生严重冲击，使得经济增长率恢复更加困难。
But perhaps, also, that it prompted a more serious debate about the policies that India needs to become less vulnerable to the whims³⁴ of an unforgiving world.
但是也有可能会激起更严肃的讨论，关于印度要变得更能应对变化多端难以应付世界。
1.be vulnerable to 易受…,易于…
These were more vulnerable to blast because of poor framing and connections and were readily burned out by fire.
由于构架安装和连结得不牢固，这种桁架更易受爆震波的破坏，并也易被火烧毁。
She is very young and vulnerable to temptation.
她很年轻，易受诱惑;易受骗上当。
2.short of 缺少；不远； 差一点
The government's debt burden leaves it short of money for infrastructure³⁵.
政府的债务负担使其缺乏用于基础设施建设的资金。
A repeat would leave developers short of cash to cover their costs.
如果当前重现这一幕，那么开发商将缺乏足够现金以负担成本。
3.take out of 取出；除去
Please take out of your order list, let's check the goods together.
请拿出您的订货单，我们共同核实一下货物。
Take out of microwave and add a chocolate chip on the yellow candy melt and the candy corn beak³⁶ while the marshmallows and candy are still warm.
从微波炉里取出并在黄砂糖上加上巧克力块和鸟嘴状的玉米糖这时棉花糖和砂糖仍然是温热的。

1 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

2 rattling   

adj. 格格作响的, 活泼的, 很好的 adv. 极其, 很, 非常 动词rattle的现在分词

参考例句：

• This book is a rattling good read. 这是一本非常好的读物。
• At that same instant,a deafening explosion set the windows rattling. 正在这时，一声震耳欲聋的爆炸突然袭来，把窗玻璃震得当当地响。

3 incipient   

adj.起初的，发端的，初期的

参考例句：

• The anxiety has been sharpened by the incipient mining boom.采矿业初期的蓬勃发展加剧了这种担忧。
• What we see then is an incipient global inflation.因此，我们看到的是初期阶段的全球通胀.

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

6 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

7 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

8 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

13 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

14 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

15 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

16 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

17 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

18 solvency   

n.偿付能力，溶解力

参考例句：

• Fears about the solvency of the banks precipitated the great economic crash.对银行偿付能力出现恐慌更加速了经济的崩溃。
• Their targets,including profitability ratios,solvency ratios,asset management ratios.其指标包括盈利比率、偿债能力比率、资产管理比率。

19 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

20 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

21 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 actively   

adv.积极地，勤奋地

参考例句：

• During this period all the students were actively participating.在这节课中所有的学生都积极参加。
• We are actively intervening to settle a quarrel.我们正在积极调解争执。

23 turnover   

n.人员流动率，人事变动率；营业额，成交量

参考例句：

• The store greatly reduced the prices to make a quick turnover.这家商店实行大减价以迅速周转资金。
• Our turnover actually increased last year.去年我们的营业额竟然增加了。

24 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。

25 addicted   

adj.沉溺于....的，对...上瘾的

参考例句：

• He was addicted to heroin at the age of 17.他17岁的时候对海洛因上了瘾。
• She's become addicted to love stories.她迷上了爱情小说。

26 smuggling   

n.走私

参考例句：

• Some claimed that the docker's union fronted for the smuggling ring.某些人声称码头工人工会是走私集团的掩护所。
• The evidence pointed to the existence of an international smuggling network.证据表明很可能有一个国际走私网络存在。

27 bullion   

n.金条，银条

参考例句：

• In the London bullion market yesterday,the price of gold was steady.昨天伦敦金银市场黄金价格稳定。
• Police have launched a man-hunt for the bullion robbers.警方已大举搜捕抢劫金条的罪犯。

28 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

29 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

30 ramp   

n.暴怒，斜坡，坡道；vi.作恐吓姿势，暴怒，加速；vt.加速

参考例句：

• That driver drove the car up the ramp.那司机将车开上了斜坡。
• The factory don't have that capacity to ramp up.这家工厂没有能力加速生产。

31 ramped   

土堤斜坡( ramp的过去式和过去分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• With the arrival of George Lucas, the pace has ramped up. 随着乔治·卢卡斯的到来，速度大大加快。
• They also sold corporate bonds as the global financial crisis ramped up. 在全球金融危机加剧之际，他们还抛售了公司债券。

32 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

33 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

34 WHIMS   

虚妄，禅病

参考例句：

• The mate observed regretfully that he could not account for that young fellow's whims. 那位伙伴很遗憾地说他不能说出那年轻人产生怪念头的原因。
• The rest she had for food and her own whims. 剩下的钱她用来吃饭和买一些自己喜欢的东西。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

35 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

36 beak   

n.鸟嘴，茶壶嘴，钩形鼻

参考例句：

• The bird had a worm in its beak.鸟儿嘴里叼着一条虫。
• This bird employs its beak as a weapon.这种鸟用嘴作武器。