经济学人275:资金冻结指数 停止的迹象

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
The capital-freeze index
资金冻结指数
Stop signs
停止的迹象
Which emerging markets are most vulnerable to a freeze in capital inflows?
哪些新兴市场最容易在资本流入时冻结？
THE risk of an abrupt¹ end to capital inflows is now a worry for much of the emerging world.
资本流入突然结束的风险是现在大部分新兴世界的心头之患。
Some places are more vulnerable than others.
而且有些市场比其他更容易被冻结。
2_副本.jpgA large current-account gap implies lots of net borrowing from abroad, which could presage² a credit crunch³ if funding dries up.
一个巨大的往来账户缺口意味着将从国外引进大量的净借贷，这样一旦资金枯竭就可能造成信贷紧缩。
A high level of short-term external debt relative to a government's stock of reserves means an economy lacks the means to tide borrowers through temporary difficulties.
一个短期外债相对于政府的库存水平很高意味着缺乏经济手段来度过暂时的困难。
Rapid credit growth often signals overstretched firms and overvalued asset prices.
信贷的快速增长往往意味着公司的捉襟见肘和对资产价格的高估。
A more open financial system may boost growth in the long run, but it also makes it easy for capital to flood out fast.
一个更加开放的金融体系，从长远来看可能促进经济增长，但同时也很容易让资本涌入更快。
The Economist⁴ has combined these four factors into an index measuring the vulnerability of 26 emerging markets to a capital freeze.
经济学人》用以上四个因素组成一个索引，用来测量资金冻结的26个新兴市场的脆弱性。
We have used a simple traffic-light system to group the countries.
我们用一个简单的交通灯系统给国家分组，
Green denotes economies, including reserve-rich oil states, that are at relatively⁵ little risk from a sudden stop.
绿色表示经济实体，包括储量丰富的石油国家，资金突然停止的风险相对较小。
A current-account surplus, a vast hoard⁶ of reserves and a closed capital account mean that whatever troubles befallChina, they are unlikely to include a panicked flight of capital.
往来账户盈余，大量储备囤积和资本账户封闭意味着无论任何麻烦降临中国，都不太可能给他们造成资本恐慌。
Many of the emerging world's bigger economies lie in amber⁷ territory.
许多新兴国家的更大的经济都依赖于琥珀领土。
India and Indonesia are already feeling the pressure.
印度和印尼已经感受到了压力，
Others, like Mexico, have fared well amid recent turmoil⁸: the peso has been roughly flat over the past year.
其他的国家，像墨西哥在近期金融风暴期间就过度的很好：
But credit growth and high levels of financial openness are potential points of fragility.
比索与已经过去的一年大致持平。但信贷增长和高层次的金融开放是潜在的脆弱点。
Malaysia and the Philippines, victims of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, are in better shape now.
马来西亚和菲律宾，20世纪90年代后期的亚洲金融危机的受害者，现在有了更好的形态。
Both run current-account surpluses and have built up a much larger reserve buffer⁹ relative to short-run external obligations.
两者都有了往来账户盈余，并相对于短期外债已建立一个更大的储备缓冲，
Yet credit growth has also been zesty¹⁰.
而且信贷增长也一直很灿烂。
Countries in the red zone are most at risk.
在红色区域是最危险的国家。
South Africa,Ukraine and a clutch of Latin American countries all look vulnerable, but Turkey tops the list.
南非，乌克兰和拉美的很多国家都显得很脆弱，但土耳其名列榜首。
It is running a current-account deficit¹¹ of over 6% of GDP, its short-term external debt and debt payments amount to over 150% of available reserve assets, and since 2009 credit has grown faster there than it has in any other emerging market in the index.
它的往来账户的运行赤字超过GDP的6%，短期外债和债务款项可用的储备资产超过150%，并且自2009年以来信贷增长速度比其在任意其他新兴市场中都快。
The Turkish lira has already fallen by 13% against the dollar since the start of the year, but it may yet sink further.
今年年初以来，土耳其里拉兑换美元汇率已经下跌了13%，而且它还可能进一步下沉。
1.be vulnerable to 易受……的伤害
So, without formal protection for the Coral Sea we're afraid it might be vulnerable to that in the future.
所以，对于未经正式保护珊瑚海，在未来我们担心它可能会很脆弱的。
The information harvested can then be used to allocate¹² resources and identify machines that may be vulnerable to attack by rogue¹³ users and programs.
然后，收集到的信息可以用来分配资源和识别那些可能易受恶意的用户和程序攻击的机器。
2.in the long run 从长远来看， 终究；一来二去
Bigger changes are possible in the long run.
长远来看，更大的变革是可能的。
Besides, stocks are cheap enough for investors¹⁴ to make money in the long run.
此外，目前股票价格非常便宜足以让投资者最终赚钱。
3.combine into 结合成
In this step, identify the ranges of data you want to combine into one report.
在这一步中，请识别需要合并到以表中的数据区域。
In this step, identify the ranges of data you want to combine into one report, and then assign the ranges to page field item labels.
在这一步中，请识别要合并到报表中的数据区域，然后将这些区域分配给页字段数据项标志。
4.build up 逐步建立；增进
They actually remove toxins¹⁵ from our body that build up courtesy of stress.
眼泪事实上排除我们体内由于压力积聚而成的毒素。
It is triggered when electrical charges build up in storm clouds.
电荷在积雨云中聚积起来就会触发闪电。

1 abrupt   

adj.突然的，意外的；唐突的，鲁莽的

参考例句：

• The river takes an abrupt bend to the west.这河突然向西转弯。
• His abrupt reply hurt our feelings.他粗鲁的回答伤了我们的感情。

2 presage   

n.预感，不祥感；v.预示

参考例句：

• The change could presage serious problems.这变化可能预示着有严重问题将要发生。
• The lowering clouds presage a storm.暗云低沉是暴风雨的前兆。

3 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

6 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

7 amber   

n.琥珀；琥珀色；adj.琥珀制的

参考例句：

• Would you like an amber necklace for your birthday?你过生日想要一条琥珀项链吗？
• This is a piece of little amber stones.这是一块小小的琥珀化石。

8 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

9 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

10 zesty   

adj.引起极大的快乐或兴奋的，有兴趣的

参考例句：

• Macaroni Parmesan Cheese Topping, and Sage Gravy will appeal to their zesty personalities. 意大利的通心面、士和美味肉汁一定很合他们的口味。 来自互联网
• This zesty and refreshing wine offers a freshly cut grass nose, herbaceous green bean. 这款爽口的葡萄酒引出绿豆般清新的香气。 来自互联网

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 allocate   

vt.分配，分派；把…拨给；把…划归

参考例句：

• You must allocate the money carefully.你们必须谨慎地分配钱。
• They will allocate fund for housing.他们将拨出经费建房。

13 rogue   

n.流氓；v.游手好闲

参考例句：

• The little rogue had his grandpa's glasses on.这淘气鬼带上了他祖父的眼镜。
• They defined him as a rogue.他们确定他为骗子。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 toxins   

n.毒素( toxin的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The seas have been used as a receptacle for a range of industrial toxins. 海洋成了各种有毒工业废料的大容器。
• Most toxins are naturally excreted from the body. 大部分毒素被自然排出体外。 来自《简明英汉词典》