经济学人44:德国宏观审慎监管改革

 　　Finance and Economics；German macroprudential reforms；Beware Teutonic caution；

　　财经； 德国宏观审慎监管改革；当心条顿的警示；

　　The Bundesbank should not exert its new clout¹ too zealously²；

　　德国央行不应如此热情的展现其新的影响力；

　　The European Central Bank (ECB) decided³ a year ago to hold this week’s monetary⁴-policy meeting in Barcelona, but the timing⁵ turned out to be perfect. Spain is in the crosshairs of the markets, not least because of budgetary overruns by regional governments such as Catalonia’s. And the contrasting economic fortunes of beaten-up Spain, where the jobless rate has reached 24%, and resilient Germany, where it is below 6%, exemplify the difficulty of finding the right monetary policy in a currency union of 17 members.

　　一年前，欧洲央行便以决定这周在巴塞罗那举行货币政策会议，且时机证明是相当成熟。西班牙现是市场的交叉点，至少不是因为类似于加泰罗尼亚地方政府的预算超支。而与之形成鲜明对比的是遭受重创的西班牙经济时运，其失业率已达24%，恢复力强的德国经济也不到6%,也反映出在货币联盟的十七个成员国中很难找到合适的货币政策。

　　The ECB’s meeting on May 3rd (after The Economist⁶ went to press) was not expected to change its monetary stance. Behind the scenes, however, there are acute tensions within its 23-strong governing council, made up of six board members and the heads of the 17 national central banks. In particular Jens Weidmann, the president of the powerful German Bundesbank, opposed the decision to cut interest rates to 1% in December, and frets⁷ about the adequacy of the collateral⁸ against which the ECB has lent so much money to banks in recent months.

　　在五月三日举行的欧洲央行会议上仍没有改变其货币立场。但是，在这种场景之下是23个强硬理事会之间的剑拔弩张，其由6个董事会成员组成并领导着17个国家中央银行，特别是金斯魏德曼 其为资金雄厚的德国银行行长，反对在今年十二月将利率下降到1%，并对欧洲央行在最近数月来借出大量资本的抵押条件的充足性表示担忧。

　　Among other things Germany’s top central banker wants to avoid a home replay of the credit and property boom whose excesses have been so harmful in Spain. Loose monetary policy makes him nervous about the possibility of a property bubble in Germany. After a long period when house prices fell and then stagnated⁹, they have picked up in the past couple of years (see chart). Homebuilding orders are up by a fifth on a year ago.

　　在其它的一些事情中，德国最高央行行长希望阻止住房的重复赊购和房地产的繁荣，这种过度的行为对西班牙的经济造成严重的损害。宽松的货币政策也使得他对德国地产泡沫破灭的可能性倍感忧虑，在相当一段时期内当房价下跌且接连发生滞胀，他们不得不在过去几年中重拾信心（见表）。建造房屋的订单已比去年增长了20%。

　　Such anxiety looks premature¹⁰: house-price rises represent a thawing¹¹ in the property permafrost rather than a market on fire. But if Mr Weidmann is minded to take pre-emptive action, he will soon have the means to do so. At present the Bundesbank can preach about risks to financial stability but it cannot impose counter-measures such as setting higher capital requirements for banks or putting constraints¹² on specific types of lending such as mortgages. The authority for implementing¹³ these steps lies with BaFin, Germany’s bank supervisor¹⁴ (which is assisted on the ground by Bundesbank staff).

　　这样的焦虑看似是不必要的：房价的上涨代表着房地产的冷却的一种缓和而不是火爆，如果魏德曼想采取先发制人的措施，他很快会有相应的对策。当前德国央行宣扬金融稳定的风险性，但其不能施加诸于为银行设置更高的的资本要求，亦或是对类似于抵押贷款的特定类型设限的措施。联邦金融监管局，德国银行的监管机构（现场由德国央行员工协助）拥有实施这些措施的权力。

　　This will change under new proposals to set up a joint¹⁵ committee, which will have representatives from the finance ministry¹⁶ and BaFin, but which will give the Bundesbank the leading role and enable it to push through binding¹⁷ directives. The legislation won’t come into force until next year, but since it is designed to strengthen his hand, Mr Weidmann would probably be able to get his own way before then.

　　在建立联合委员会这一新提议下，这一切将发生改变，联合委员将会拥有从财政部和联邦金融监管局的代表，并给与德国央行主导地位使具有法律效应的指示得以通过。明年这项立法将生效，而联合委员会的设置之初是为了加强其行使权力的目的，魏德曼也许会在那之前达到他的目的。

　　The reform is part of a general move to add “macroprudential” instruments to the toolkit of central banks, allowing them to choke off credit excesses while monetary policy is set for the economy as a whole. If anything, Germany is treading less far down this path than some other countries—in Britain, for example, the Bank of England will call the shots through a powerful new Financial Policy Committee, which has already started work. Such powers should be particularly useful in the euro area, providing countries with a national lever to pull if their banks are getting too festive¹⁸ (though Spain’s pre-crisis policy of “dynamic provisioning”, designed to get local banks to set aside more provisions in the good times, cautions against investing too much hope in macroprudential tools).

　　这项改革是整体行动的冰山一角目的就为了是将宏观审慎监管改革的方法加入到央行的整体体系中，允许他们阻止超额赊购并且货币政策的设置是为了整个经济的需求，若有事发生，德国走这条路会比其它一些国家稍显谨慎，例如在英国，英格兰银行会通过一个强大的新的金融政策委员会来解决事态，并已发挥效应。此类权力在欧洲地区尤为有用，如果他们的银行盈利过多其会提供国家间的相互扶持（尽管西班牙的危机前动态供给政策的设计是让当地银行在时机恰当的时候将一些条条框框至于一旁，并谨慎将太多的希望置于宏观审慎监管工具中）

　　But in the current climate there is also the danger that such regulations may be used in bigger economies to grab back power from the ECB. By reducing credit availability national central banks can contravene¹⁹ the euro zone’s wider monetary stance. Speaking in New York in late April Mr Weidmann said that if monetary policy becomes too expansionary for his home country, “Germany has to deal with this using other, national instruments.” If Mr Weidmann does use his new powers overzealously that could dash one of the few remaining hopes for the hard-hit peripheral²⁰ economies: a strong recovery in the euro area, led by Germany.

　　但在当前这种环境下，这些条款在更大经济体里的使用是为了从欧洲央行获取权力，但这存在着一定的风险，通过减少住房赊销的途径，国家中央银行违背欧元区更广货币立场。四月末，魏德曼在纽约时说道：‘若货币政策在他的祖国扩张太快，德国那边不得不采用其他的国家政策’。如果魏德曼过分使用他刚赋予的权力，这将会对难以影响到的外围经济所仅有的少数希望带来冲击：在欧元区一个强大的经济将会在德国的带领下复苏。

1 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

2 zealously   

adv.热心地；热情地；积极地；狂热地

参考例句：

• Of course the more unpleasant a duty was, the more zealously Miss Glover performed it. 格洛弗小姐越是对她的职责不满意，她越是去积极执行它。 来自辞典例句
• A lawyer should represent a client zealously within the bounds of the law. 律师应在法律范围内热忱为当事人代理。 来自口语例句

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 frets   

基质间片； 品丝（吉他等指板上定音的）( fret的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The river frets away the rocks along its banks. 河水侵蚀了两岸的岩石。
• She frets at even the slightest delays. 稍有延误她就不满。

8 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

9 stagnated   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
• His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句

10 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

11 thawing   

n.熔化，融化v.（气候）解冻( thaw的现在分词 )；（态度、感情等）缓和；（冰、雪及冷冻食物）溶化；软化

参考例句：

• The ice is thawing. 冰在融化。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• It had been snowing and thawing and the streets were sloppy. 天一直在下雪，雪又一直在融化，街上泥泞不堪。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

12 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 implementing   

v.实现( implement的现在分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• -- Implementing a comprehensive drug control strategy. ――实行综合治理的禁毒战略。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• He was in no hurry about implementing his unshakable principle. 他并不急于实行他那不可动摇的原则。 来自辞典例句

14 supervisor   

n.监督人，管理人，检查员，督学，主管，导师

参考例句：

• Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说，我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
• He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。

15 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

16 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

17 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

18 festive   

adj.欢宴的，节日的

参考例句：

• It was Christmas and everyone was in festive mood.当时是圣诞节，每个人都沉浸在节日的欢乐中。
• We all wore festive costumes to the ball.我们都穿着节日的盛装前去参加舞会。

19 contravene   

v.违反，违背，反驳，反对

参考例句：

• The moves contravene the peace plan agreed by both sides.这些举措违反了双方同意的和平方案。
• He said the article did not contravene the industry's code of conduct.他说这一条款并未违反行业的行为准则。

20 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。