经济学人57:Europe’s zombie banks 欧洲的僵尸银行

 　　Europe’s zombie banks

　　欧洲的僵尸银行

　　Blight¹ of the living dead

　　活死人没有黎明

　　Europe’s financial system is in a terrible state, and nothing much is being done about it

　　欧洲金融体系现状极差，也没多少改观

　　Jul 13th 2013

　　2013年7月13日

　　“PROBABLY the most successful monetary²-policy measure undertaken in recent times.” That isMario Draghi’s self-effacing judgment³ on the outright⁴ monetary transactions (OMT) programme,the promise made by the European Central Bank (ECB) last summer to buy the bonds of strugglingeuro-area governments. The ECB’s president deserves credit for bringing calm to bond markets.But in reality the situation is still awful, and Europe’s banks are at the heart of theproblem.

　　欧洲央行行长德拉吉谦虚地作出评价：“也许，直接货币交易是近期最成功的货币政策。” 去年夏季，欧洲央行（ECB）许下诺言，要利用直接货币交易政策来购买欧元区经济困难国家的债券。ECB行长平定了债券市场，值得嘉奖。但是，实际情况还是很糟糕，欧洲各个银行现在处在了问题的中心。

　　The euro-zone economy has contracted for six consecutive⁵ quarters. The IMF this week revisedits 2013 forecast down again: it expects the euro zone to shrink by 0.6% this year. (Just torub things in, the fund adjusted its forecasts for Britain upwards⁶.) The outlook in the coreeuro-zone economies has worsened, thanks in part to a slowdown in China: in May German exportssuffered their sharpest fall for two years. But the brunt of the pain is being borne by theperipheral economies.

　　欧元区经济萎靡的状况已经连续了6个季度了。IMF这周再次重新修订了对2013年度的预计：今年欧元区经济下降0.6%（另外，该组织调整了对英国经济的预测，认为英国今年经济能有所回升）。欧元区核心国家的经济前景进一步恶化了，部分是因为中国经济发展速度降低：今年五月德国向中国的出口量跌至了两年最低。但是，惨剧影响的却是边缘国家的经济。

　　Greece is in its sixth straight year of recession; Spain’s unemployment rate stands at almost27%; Italy’s credit rating was downgraded this week. Beno?t Coeuré, an ECB board member, gotit right on July 10th when he said that the euro zone “is still engulfed⁸ in a severe crisis”. The OMT programme may keep the financial speculators at bay, but pressure can build on thestreets as well as in bond yields. Years of joblessness, economic hardship and edicts fromcreditor countries are straining the political fabric⁹ in Portugal and Greece.

　　希腊的经济衰退已经连续6年了；西班牙的失业率高达27%；本周意大利的信用等级有所下降。ECB执行委员会会员Benoit Coeure在7月10日表示：“欧元区仍陷入严重的危机中”，事实确实如此。直接货币交易正常也许会阻止人们在金融上的投机行为，但是给人们和债券收益也增添了压力。连年失业、经济困难以及债权国的法令都让葡萄牙和希腊的政治岌岌可危。

　　Credit corpses¹⁰

　　信贷不再

　　Banks are central to Europe’s prospects¹¹. The fear, especially in peripheral⁷ economies, is arepeat of Japan’s experience in the 1990s, when “zombie” banks staggered along for years,neither healthy enough to lend to firms nor weak enough to collapse¹². There are the sameunvital signs in Europe. The average price-to-book ratio for European banks remains¹³ below one,suggesting that investors¹⁴ think lenders are worth more dead than alive. In America, wherebanks were recapitalised quickly, the ratio exceeds one. Italy’s two big lenders, UniCreditand Intesa Sanpaolo, have ratios of 0.34 and 0.42 respectively.

　　欧洲的未来，都寄托给了银行。欧元区经济体都害怕，特别是欧元区边缘经济体，他们会重复日本90年代的经历——银行“半死不活”，几年来一直摇摇晃晃，死不下去也活不过来，借不出钱也倒不下去。欧洲银行也出现了类似迹象，奄奄一息。欧洲银行的平均市净率低于1，意味着投资商们认为这些借贷银行赖活着不如死了。美国银行迅速进行了资本重组，市净率超过了1。意大利两大借贷银行联合信贷和联合圣保罗的市净率分别是0.34和0.42。

　　The suspicion of European lenders is well-founded. The amount of shaky loans keeps climbing:worryingly, there are more non-performing loans in the Italian banking¹⁵ system than there iscore “Tier-1” capital. Lots of peripheral banks have been loading up on their owngovernments’ bonds: Portugal’s three biggest banks increased their holdings of Portuguesesovereign debt by 16% in the first quarter of the year. Mortgages account for even more bankassets’ and house prices keep falling—at the fastest pace on record in Spain in the firstquarter.

　　怀疑欧洲借贷银行不是没有理由的。不良信贷的数目仍在上升——在意大利银行系统中，不良信贷的数目比核心第一级资本还多，情况非常令人担忧。很多边缘国家的银行都依靠政府债券支撑——葡萄牙的三大银行在今年第一季度买入了更多的葡萄牙国债，持有率增至16%。银行资产中房贷更多了，房价持续下降，西班牙第一季度房价下跌速度达到了历史最快。

　　Weren’t the Europeans supposed to be cleaning up their balance-sheets? Private-equity¹⁶ firmsthat have raised billions to buy up distressed¹⁷ assets from European banks are kicking theirheels while they wait for deals to arrive. Regulators worry that banks, rather than writingoff or selling bad loans, have been fiddling¹⁸ with the models that dictate¹⁹ how much capitalthey need to hold. Danske Bank, a big Danish lender, was abruptly²⁰ ordered by its supervisor²¹ tochange its calculations last month, lowering its capital ratio. Denmark is outside the euro,but even German politicians joke about the nasty surprises in their banks’ balance-sheets.

　　难道欧洲的负债资产表不应该被清除吗？私募公司积攒了数十亿，想从欧洲银行手中收购了不良资产，现在这些公司一直在渴望这笔交易，等得急不可耐。监管部门担心，银行不会清除或者售出不良贷款，他们会动手脚改变模式，让人们不知道他们需要持有多少资金。丹麦大型借贷银行丹斯克上个月突然接到上级命令，要他们换个算法，降低资产比例。丹麦不属于欧元区，但是，德国政客们也在其银行资产负债表中开玩笑，嘲讽这个恶心的“惊喜”。

　　None of this presages²² a full-scale collapse: European banks have more capital than they didbefore the start of the crisis. But lending is being throttled²³. As far as the periphery²⁴ isconcerned, the ECB’s attempts to kickstart growth with ultra-low interest rates is one of theleast successful central-bank policies of recent times. Loans to non-financial firmscontracted in May by 4.1% in Italy, 5.0% in Portugal and 9.7% in Spain. Some of that is causedby the impact of recession. But it also reflects financial fragmentation. Banks in strongcountries are lending less across borders. Lenders in weak countries pay more to borrow thanbanks in strong ones. This divergence²⁵ ripples²⁶ through to customers: the difference in the costof borrowing between German and Spanish firms rose from a mere²⁷ six basis points in summer 2011to 149 basis points earlier this year.

　　所有的预测，都没表示欧洲银行全军覆没——毕竟他们现有的资产比金融危机刚开始时要多。但是贷款却仍受限制。就欧元区边缘而言，ECB试图开始靠超低利率拉动经济增长，然而，这却是央行进来最不成功的政策之一。今年五月，意大利非金融性公司借出的资金减少了4.1%，葡萄牙减少了5.0%，西班牙减少了9.7%。部分是受经济衰退的影响。但是，这也反应了财政的破裂。经济强国的银行向国外贷款的数目减少了。在经济弱国贷款要给的利率比在经济强国的银行贷款更高。这种分歧也波及到了银行客户——在2011年，如果公司在德国贷款，需要支付的利率和在西班牙贷款相比，只相差6个基本点；到了今年早些时候，上涨到了149个基本点。

　　Channel-hopping

　　摇摆不定

　　As long as Europe’s banks are not strong enough to lend, its economy will struggle to grow.Mr Draghi and his fellow policymakers should concentrate on three cures.

　　只要欧洲银行没能力向外贷款，欧洲的经济就会上升得很艰难。德拉吉及其他ECB决策人应该全力于以下三个解决方法。

　　The first is to unclog the lending channels. There are mechanisms²⁸ for the ECB to try to lowerbank-lending rates in the periphery. But it could also usefully weaken the dependence²⁹ of smalland medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) on banks by helping³⁰ prise open the capital markets—by,for instance, buying up securities backed by SME loans. That would mean helping some countriesmore than others, something that makes the ECB uneasy. But this horse has bolted: the centralbank’s policies are already having an uneven³¹ effect across the euro zone. The EuropeanInvestment Bank could also ease credit by taking a “first-loss” position in SME-backedsecurities. There has been a lot of talk about this sort of thing, but too little action.

　　一，清除借贷中的障碍。ECB中存在相关机制，可以试着降低边缘国家的银行贷款利率。但是，这样做同时也会有效减少中小型企业对银行的依赖性，他们有助于打开资本市场，比如，收购中小型企业贷款支撑的证券。如此一来，部分国家得到的帮助会多一些，如果出现这种情况，ECB会十分担忧。但是ECB却像头受惊的小马驹，他们已经出台了会导致欧元区国家享受不同待遇的政策。同时，在中小型企业支撑的证券中，欧洲投资银行也可以有损失时首当其冲，从而放松信贷。不过，大家都是语言的巨人，行动的矮子。

　　The second cure involves lifting the cloud of suspicion over European banks. The ECB willundertake an “asset-quality review” before it takes up the role of euro-zone bankingsupervisor next year. Previous stress tests by national supervisors³² were not tough enough—andconvinced nobody. The asset-quality review is the ECB’s first and best chance to establishits credibility. Banks that fall short must be recapitalised—by raising fresh equity fromprivate investors, by bailing³³ in creditors³⁴ and, in some cases, by bringing in public money.

　　二，消除对欧洲银行的疑虑。ECB会做一个资产质量评估，然后在明年，担当欧元区银行监管的角色。之前，国际监管机构也做个压力测试，不过力度不够，也没说服力。这次的资产质量评估是ECB建立信誉的第一个也是唯一一个机会。落后的银行必须进行资本重组，重组的方法可以是从私人投资者那里筹集新的资产净值，可以是债权人纾困，在某些情况下，还可以引进公款。

　　That raises the familiar spectre of the Spanish and Italian governments worsening their ownfinances by borrowing to prop³⁵ up domestic lenders. That is a reminder³⁶ of the importance of thethird cure: a proper banking union, supervised by the ECB, with a common resolution fund(proposed this week by the European Commission) and a joint³⁷ deposit-guarantee scheme. The eurozone will not work without a banking union. Here Germany is the block: it hints that it mightconsider taking on such mutual³⁸ obligations in the future, but not now. The problem is that nowis when the banks are half-dead. Waiting for zombies to come back to life is a fool’s game.

　　如此一来，人们熟悉的噩梦又出现了——西班牙和意大利政府靠借钱来支持其国内的借贷银行，进一步恶化了其经济形势。这就提醒了人们，第三个解决方法的重要性：在ECB监管下，成立一个适当的银行联盟，并达成一致的重组基金（由欧洲委员会本周提出），建立一个联合存款保险体制。如果没有银行联盟，欧元区肯定解决不了经济危机。现在，德国成了拦路石——德国暗示人们，也许将来会考虑采用类似的相互债务责任制度，但现在不会。现在的问题是银行处于濒死状。等待尸体复活可不是个明智的选择。

1 blight   

n.枯萎病；造成破坏的因素；vt.破坏，摧残

参考例句：

• The apple crop was wiped out by blight.枯萎病使苹果全无收成。
• There is a blight on all his efforts.他的一切努力都遭到挫折。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

4 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

5 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

6 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

7 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

8 engulfed   

v.吞没，包住( engulf的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was engulfed by a crowd of reporters. 他被一群记者团团围住。
• The little boat was engulfed by the waves. 小船被波浪吞没了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 fabric   

n.织物，织品，布；构造，结构，组织

参考例句：

• The fabric will spot easily.这种织品很容易玷污。
• I don't like the pattern on the fabric.我不喜欢那块布料上的图案。

10 corpses   

n.死尸，尸体( corpse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The living soldiers put corpses together and burned them. 活着的战士把尸体放在一起烧了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Overhead, grayish-white clouds covered the sky, piling up heavily like decaying corpses. 天上罩满了灰白的薄云，同腐烂的尸体似的沉沉的盖在那里。 来自汉英文学 - 中国现代小说

11 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

12 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

13 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

17 distressed   

痛苦的

参考例句：

• He was too distressed and confused to answer their questions. 他非常苦恼而困惑，无法回答他们的问题。
• The news of his death distressed us greatly. 他逝世的消息使我们极为悲痛。

18 fiddling   

微小的

参考例句：

• He was fiddling with his keys while he talked to me. 和我谈话时他不停地摆弄钥匙。
• All you're going to see is a lot of fiddling around. 你今天要看到的只是大量的胡摆乱弄。 来自英汉文学 - 廊桥遗梦

19 dictate   

v.口授；(使)听写；指令，指示，命令

参考例句：

• It took him a long time to dictate this letter.口述这封信花了他很长时间。
• What right have you to dictate to others?你有什么资格向别人发号施令？

20 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

21 supervisor   

n.监督人，管理人，检查员，督学，主管，导师

参考例句：

• Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说，我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
• He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。

22 presages   

v.预示，预兆( presage的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• This sign presages rains. 这种迹象是下雨的预兆。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• And each presages the bigger pivots ahead in China's course. 每一件也都预示着中国今后路线的更大转机。 来自互联网

23 throttled   

v.扼杀( throttle的过去式和过去分词 )；勒死；使窒息；压制

参考例句：

• He throttled the guard with his bare hands. 他徒手掐死了卫兵。
• The pilot got very low before he throttled back. 飞行员减速之前下降得很低。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。

25 divergence   

n.分歧，岔开

参考例句：

• There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
• In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之，这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。

26 ripples   

逐渐扩散的感觉( ripple的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The moon danced on the ripples. 月亮在涟漪上舞动。
• The sea leaves ripples on the sand. 海水在沙滩上留下了波痕。

27 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

28 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

30 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

31 uneven   

adj.不平坦的，不规则的，不均匀的

参考例句：

• The sidewalk is very uneven—be careful where you walk.这人行道凹凸不平—走路时请小心。
• The country was noted for its uneven distribution of land resources.这个国家以土地资源分布不均匀出名。

32 supervisors   

n.监督者，管理者( supervisor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I think the best technical people make the best supervisors. 我认为最好的技术人员可以成为最好的管理人员。 来自辞典例句
• Even the foremen or first-level supervisors have a staffing responsibility. 甚至领班或第一线的监督人员也有任用的责任。 来自辞典例句

33 bailing   

（凿井时用吊桶）排水

参考例句：

• Both fountains were going furiously and both pumps bailing with might and main. 两个人的口水只管喷泉似地朝外涌，两个抽水机全力以赴往外抽水。
• The mechanical sand-bailing technology makes sand-washing operation more efficient. 介绍了机械捞砂的结构装置及工作原理，提出了现场操作注意事项。

34 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

35 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

36 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

37 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

38 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。