经济学人51:就业数据,进展顺利但缓慢

 　　Jobs figures就业数据 A gentle tailwind进展顺利，但缓慢

　　Employment is moving, ever so slowly, in Barack Obama’s direction

　　在奥巴马的指导下，就业率缓慢回升

　　ON APRIL 4th Barack Obama announced, to no one’s surprise, that he would seek a second term in 2012. The timing¹ was auspicious². Three days earlier the job market, a key determinant of his re-election chances, took a turn for the better. On that day the government reported that non-farm payrolls³ rose a hefty 216,000, or 0.2%, in March, led by manufacturers, hotels, restaurants and temporary staffing agencies. Strapped⁴ state and local governments trimmed their payrolls for the fifth month in a row. But private payrolls, a better indicator⁵ of the economy’s animal spirits, have posted their biggest two-month advance since 2006, at 470,000.

　　4月4日，不出众人所料，奥巴马宣布他将争取在2012年连任总统。 当时的时机很有利。 三天之前，决定奥巴马连任的关键性因素-就业市场，开始走向好转。当天的政府报告称，三月份非农业就业人口大幅上升216,000，占总人数的0.2％，这一增长主要来自于制造业，酒店，餐饮业和临时职介所。经济拮据的州和地方政府过去连续五个月的一直削减人数。 但是，但是私营企业的就业人数，这个表示经济扩大投资的优良指标，达到了自2006年以来最大的两个月连续增长，为470,000人。

　　Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 8.8% from 8.9%. It has now plummeted⁶ a full percentage point in four months, a feat⁷ unmatched since early 1984 and a fact Mr Obama made sure to point out. No doubt he hopes it augurs⁸ for him what it did for Ronald Reagan in 1984. Like Mr Obama, Mr Reagan endured a savage⁹ recession early in his first term that crushed his approval ratings and cost his party seats in the mid-terms. But by 1984 job creation was on a roll and Mr Reagan romped¹⁰ to re-election.

　　与此同时，失业率从8.9％下降到8.8％。 如今，它已在四个月下跌了整整一个百分点，这是自1984年年初以来无与伦比的壮举，也是奥巴马一定要指出来的事实。毫无疑问，如奥巴马一样，里根在其第一任期之初经历了严重的经济衰退，这让他的支持率一落千丈，并使得共和党在中期选举中丢失议席。但到1984年创造就业机会滚滚上升，里根轻而易获得举重新选举。

　　A closer look at the data, however, illustrates¹¹ why the economy is less of a tailwind for Mr Obama than it was for the Gipper. Unemployment is falling far faster than the health of the economy can explain. In the four months during which unemployment dropped a percentage point in 1983-84, non-farm payrolls leapt by 1.6m. In the last four months they have advanced a mere¹² 630,000. The survey of households that yields the unemployment tally¹³ shows a much bigger gain in employment than the survey of employer payrolls, but still less than in 1984.

　　但是仔细观察数据就会发现奥巴马执政期间经济不如里根顺利了。失业率下降的速度远远快于经济健康可以解释清楚的速度。1983-1984年间失业率下降一个百分点的四个月间，非农事业人数猛降了160万。但在过去四个月，他们仅仅增长63万。对于失业率的人口普查显示就业率大大增加了，但仍然少于1984年。

　　The reason is that unemployment is falling not just because of job creation but because the pool of people who want to work, the labour force, is not growing. Many people seem to have dropped out of the labour force for good, perhaps to retire, collect disability, or return to education. And their ranks could grow. Typically, those who have been unemployed¹⁴ the longest are the most likely to drop out of the job hunt. But Alan Krueger, an economist¹⁵ at Princeton, says that has changed.

　　失业率下降的原因不是因为创造了就业机会，而是因为愿意工作的人群，也就是劳动力队伍，并没有扩大。 许多人似乎已经永远退出了劳动力群体，也许是退休了，也许领取了残疾证，或接受继续教育。这支队伍的人数可能会增长。一般来说，那些已经很久出于失业状态的人最有可能退出找工作的群体。 但是艾伦克鲁格（普林斯顿大学经济学家）说，这发生了变化。

　　Since 2007, he has found, the share of the long-term unemployed that drop out of the labour force has fallen steadily¹⁶. He attributes this in part to the extension of unemployment benefit to 99 weeks from the normal 26 weeks. People who might have stopped looking for work keep at it to qualify for benefits. When the extended benefits expire at the end of this year, many of the long-term unemployed may simply drop out of the labour force. Meanwhile, those with the shortest spells of unemployment are now more likely to drop out, perhaps to return to college.

　　自2007年以来，他已经发现，退出劳动力群体的长期事业群体的人数已稳步下降。他将此部分归因于失业救济金从正常的26个星期延长到99周。 已经失业的人，为了领取失业救济，并不急于工作。 当延长的福利在今年年底期满，与此同时，同时那些失业期限最短的人群现在更可能退出劳动力市场，也许他们重回校园深造去了。

　　As for those lucky enough to have jobs, pay is stagnating¹⁷. Hourly earnings¹⁸ rose just 1.7% in the year to March, a paltry¹⁹ raise that will soon be eaten up by the rising cost of petrol and grocery bills. This is ominous²⁰ for Mr Obama, because it is the growth in overall income that seems most closely to predict a president’s re-election chances. That means pay as well as payrolls. His re-election is far from in the bag.

　　至于那些幸运得到工作的人来说，工资却停滞不前。 到今年三月份每小时工资将仅上升1.7%——这点微不足道的提高将很快被上涨的汽油和杂货帐单费用抵消掉。这对奥巴马是不祥的预兆， 因为总收入的上涨似乎是总统连任机会的最好预测。这意味着工资和就业人数的同时增长。他还不能十拿九稳的获得重新选举。

1 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

2 auspicious   

adj.吉利的；幸运的，吉兆的

参考例句：

• The publication of my first book was an auspicious beginning of my career.我的第一本书的出版是我事业吉祥的开始。
• With favorable weather conditions it was an auspicious moment to set sail.风和日丽，正是扬帆出海的黄道吉日。

3 payrolls   

n.（公司员工的）工资名单( payroll的名词复数 )；（公司的）工资总支出，工薪总额

参考例句：

• Indices of employment, payrolls, and production steadied in February 1931931年2月，就业、工资额和生产指数稳定。 来自辞典例句
• Wall Street responded to the payrolls figures with gusto. 华尔街对就业数据作出了积极的反应。 来自互联网

4 strapped   

adj.用皮带捆住的，用皮带装饰的；身无分文的；缺钱；手头紧v.用皮带捆扎(strap的过去式和过去分词)；用皮带抽打；包扎；给…打绷带

参考例句：

• Make sure that the child is strapped tightly into the buggy. 一定要把孩子牢牢地拴在婴儿车上。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The soldiers' great coats were strapped on their packs. 战士们的厚大衣扎捆在背包上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

6 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 feat   

n.功绩；武艺，技艺；adj.灵巧的，漂亮的，合适的

参考例句：

• Man's first landing on the moon was a feat of great daring.人类首次登月是一个勇敢的壮举。
• He received a medal for his heroic feat.他因其英雄业绩而获得一枚勋章。

8 augurs   

n.（古罗马的）占兆官( augur的名词复数 )；占卜师，预言者v.预示，预兆，预言( augur的第三人称单数 )；成为预兆；占卜

参考例句：

• This augurs well for the harvest. 这是丰收的好兆头。 来自辞典例句
• Higher pay augurs a better future. 工资高了，前程会更美好。 来自辞典例句

9 savage   

adj.野蛮的；凶恶的，残暴的；n.未开化的人

参考例句：

• The poor man received a savage beating from the thugs.那可怜的人遭到暴徒的痛打。
• He has a savage temper.他脾气粗暴。

10 romped   

v.嬉笑玩闹( romp的过去式和过去分词 )；（尤指在赛跑或竞选等中）轻易获胜

参考例句：

• Children romped on the playground. 孩子们在操场上嬉笑玩闹。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• John romped home well ahead of all the other runners. 约翰赛马跑时轻而易举地战胜了所有的选手。 来自辞典例句

11 illustrates   

给…加插图( illustrate的第三人称单数 )； 说明； 表明； （用示例、图画等）说明

参考例句：

• This historical novel illustrates the breaking up of feudal society in microcosm. 这部历史小说是走向崩溃的封建社会的缩影。
• Alfred Adler, a famous doctor, had an experience which illustrates this. 阿尔弗莱德 - 阿德勒是一位著名的医生，他有过可以说明这点的经历。 来自中级百科部分

12 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

13 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。

14 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

15 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

16 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

17 stagnating   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得，干这份工作我没有长进。
• ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时，国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句

18 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

19 paltry   

adj.无价值的，微不足道的

参考例句：

• The parents had little interest in paltry domestic concerns.那些家长对家里鸡毛蒜皮的小事没什么兴趣。
• I'm getting angry;and if you don't command that paltry spirit of yours.我要生气了，如果你不能振作你那点元气。

20 ominous   

adj.不祥的，不吉的，预兆的，预示的

参考例句：

• Those black clouds look ominous for our picnic.那些乌云对我们的野餐来说是个不祥之兆。
• There was an ominous silence at the other end of the phone.电话那头出现了不祥的沉默。