经济学人511:经济战场 天然气和巧克力

　　The economic battleground
经济战场
Gas and chocolate
天然气和巧克力
Supporting Ukraine's economy will not be easy or cheap
支持乌克兰的经济怕是既不容易也不廉价
THE Ukrainian economy is a mess.
乌克兰的经济现在是一片混乱。
Its currency, the hryvnia, has lost almost 20% of its value in the past month.
过去的一个月，其货币格里夫纳已经贬值将近20%。
Foreign-exchange reserves have tumbled to $15 billion, despite the imposition of capital controls.
尽管实行资本管制, 外汇储备还是已跌至150亿美元。
Bank deposits fell by more than 3% in the first half of February and, since the revolution, the government has imposed limits on further withdrawals¹.
二月上旬，银行存款下跌超过3%，自革命以来, 政府进一步限制提款。
乌克兰经济.jpg
Tax revenues have collapsed² and pension payments have been delayed.
税收收入已经崩溃, 养老金也被推迟。
The country was in poor-enough economic shape before all this: it was one of the reasons why Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed³ president, chose $15 billion in Russian loans over a deal with the European Union—the decision that led to his downfall.
此前，乌克兰的经济就已经很是贫困:这也是被废黜的总统亚努科维奇选择了俄罗斯150亿美元的贷款而不是与欧洲联盟的原因之一，此决定导致了他的垮台。
Having propped⁴ up the Ukrainian economy, Russia seems to have the power, as energy provider, trading partner and creditor⁵, to cripple it.
作为乌克兰的能源供应商, 贸易伙伴和债权人，俄罗斯支持过乌克兰的经济, 俄罗斯似乎也有能力削弱它。
The most obvious economic attack would be to cut off the Ukraine's gas.
最明显的经济攻击将是切断乌克兰的天然气。
That need not have huge effects either on western customers whose gas comes via Ukraine or on Russian gas earnings⁶.
这需要不会对天然气运输途经乌克兰的西方客户或俄罗斯天然气收入产生较大影响。
Other Russian pipelines⁸ could handle much of the gas.
其他俄罗斯管道可以处理大部分的天然气。
But it would still be a costly⁹ tactic¹⁰, and one to which the Ukrainians are not as vulnerable as they might seem.
但这仍将是一个昂贵的策略, 乌克兰人也没有他们看起来那么脆弱。
They have large gas-storage facilities conveniently situated¹¹ in the west of the country. How much gas the stores contain is unclear, and its ownership is murky—but after a mild winter there is probably a buffer¹² of several months.
该国西部地区，他们有大型油气储备设施。天然气存储到底有多少还不清楚, 其所有权也很模糊，冬季之后能支撑几个月来缓冲。
Moreover, Ukraine should be able to import gas from Slovakia, reversing the flow of a main east-west pipeline⁷.
此外, 乌克兰还能从斯洛伐克进口天然气,扭转一条重要的东西方管道的流动。
It has twice done this on smaller pipelines during previous disputes with Russia.
之前与俄罗斯发生过纠纷，他们两次就修建好了一些较小的管道。
Trade is also a weapon which imposes costs on the aggressor, but an easier one to wield¹³ with precision.
贸易也是一种武器, 把成本强加于侵略者,更容易而且精确行使。
A quarter of Ukraine's exports head east and Vladimir Putin is not shy about messing with them; Russian restrictions¹⁴, like those placed on Ukrainian chocolate last year, could cost the country billions, with the losses targeted on particular sectors¹⁵, even particular oligarchs.
乌克兰四分之一的出口是往东方出口，弗拉基米尔普京并不羞于干扰;俄罗斯对其进行限制,去年曾搁置乌克兰出口的巧克力造成了上十亿的损失,损失针对特定的行业,甚至特定的寡头。
This week Russia banned pork from Ukraine, saying political instability had undermined safety inspections¹⁶.
本周俄罗斯禁止从乌克兰进口猪肉，声称乌克兰的政治不稳定已经破坏了安全检查。
Though Mr Putin says he wants to strengthen trade, instability is unlikely to be in short supply over the coming months.
尽管普京先生表示, 他希望加强贸易，在未来的几个月不太可能出现供应不足。
As a creditor, Russia has given itself room for mischievous¹⁷ manoeuvre¹⁸.
作为债权人,俄罗斯已经给自己恶意操纵的空间。
The way its bail-out to Mr Yanukovych, $3 billion of which was delivered before the revolution, was structured gives Mr Putin leverage¹⁹ that could scupper any attempts to reach agreements with other creditors²⁰ in advance of forthcoming payments.
其对亚努科维奇的纾困,革命之前, 就已给了30亿美元，普京目的是破坏乌克兰与其他债权人事先达成协议。
And some fine print stipulates²¹ that if Ukraine's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% it would automatically be in default.
一些细则规定, 如果乌克兰的债务占国民生产总值的比率超过60%, 俄罗斯可以不履行协议。
Russia's legal poison pills could make dealing²² with Ukraine's debts harder at a time when they are sure to grow; without loans from the West the government will run out of money.
俄罗斯的法律毒丸可以让让乌克兰因此债务交易更加困难; 但没有从西方政府贷款，钱还是会用光。
If Ukraine had sensible economic policies such loans would be easily made, since the country's current debt burden, at 47% of GDP, is not excessive.
如果乌克兰有明智的经济政策, 这种贷款会很容易, 因为这个国家目前的债务负担占GDP的47%, 并不过多。
But Ukraine has almost never had sensible policies; it has profligate²³ ones, and the investors²⁴ who used to support that profligacy²⁵ when Ukraine offered high interest rates and a stable currency are now nowhere to be seen.
但乌克兰几乎从来没有明智的政策, 挥霍无度，曾经支持 挥霍的投资者们所支持乌克兰的高利率和稳定的货币政策现在也不可行了。
Time for the IMF, which has ample experience with this kind of balance-of-payments crisis.
国际货币基金组织行动的时候了,它有足够的经验处理这种国际收支平衡危机。
The standard remedy includes tough reforms—in Ukraine's case, a large depreciation²⁶, slashed²⁷ energy subsidies²⁸ and big budget cuts—in return for funds to tide the country over until it can once again borrow from private markets.
规范的补救措施包括艰难的改革，对于乌克兰的这种情况, 需要一次货币大贬值, 削减能源补贴和大幅削减财政预算来换取资金,直到这个国家渡过难关, 直到能再一次实行私人市场。
Ukraine probably needs $3 billion to $4 billion in budgetary finance to last until after the May election.
乌克兰可能需要30亿美元到40亿美元财政预算将持续到5月大选之后。
A larger loan of $15 billion would allow it to meet its external financial obligations for the next year.
150亿美元更大的贷款, 将可能会让其完成外部金融义务。
America is keen for the IMF to negotiate a big package of loans and reforms as soon as possible, arguing that Ukraine's transitional government not only needs the support, but also can make progress where others have failed.
美国希望国际货币基金组织协商尽快提供大的贷款和改革方案, 认为乌克兰的过渡政府不仅需要支持, 也可以在别人失败的地方取得进展。
Alexander Turchinov, the interim²⁹ president, has already said he would accept all the IMF's terms, including draconian³⁰ spending cuts.
Alexander Turchinov临时总统已经表示, 他将接受所有国际货币基金组织的条件, 包括严厉的削减开支。
But many of the IMF's technocrats³¹, and its member countries, dislike the idea of America using the fund as a geopolitical tool—worries given a bitter edge by the fact that America's Congress recently refused to approve an expansion of the fund's coffers.
但国际货币基金组织的许多技术专家, 和它的成员国,不喜欢美国的想法，把基金作为地缘政治工具-担心最近美国国会拒绝批准扩大基金的资金是给定了一个痛苦的边缘。
They would prefer that the IMF chip in $1 billion, with few strings³² attached, under its Rapid Financing Instrument.
货币基金采取快速的融资，给其10亿美元 并附加一些条件。
Other short-term help is available.
他们更希望国际其他短期帮助也可以。
On March 5th the EU offered 1.6 billion in short-term macroeconomic assistance, as well as a lot of development aid in the longer term.
3月5日欧盟提供16亿作为短期宏观经济援助, 以及大量的长期发展援助。
Add in the $1 billion loan guarantee announced by John Kerry this week and Ukraine can probably stumble along until May, at which point a newly elected government could negotiate a long-term package.
约翰克里在本周宣布了10亿美元贷款担保，到5月乌克兰可能会踉跄前行 , 那时新当选的政府可以协商一个长期计划。
The politics of the rescue may get harder when it becomes clear where some of the money will end up.
我们很清楚，随着钱的用完，救援举措也会变得困难。
Using Western taxpayer's money to pay off Mr Putin or the hedge funds that bought high-yielding Ukrainian debt is an ugly prospect³³.
用西方纳税人的钱来偿还普京或者高收益债券的对冲基金是一个丑陋的前景。
So Ukraine may try to renegotiate terms with its bondholders, which would be where Mr Putin's leverage could come into play.
所以乌克兰可能尝试与债券持有人重新谈判合同条款, 普京也会利用杠杆作用做文章。
But it would also be where a reform plan with solid Western support would yield dividends³⁴.
这也将是一个西方支持的改革计划，会产生红利。
If Ukraine's economy is being transformed and the IMF is satisfied, Russian bloody-mindedness need not slow the country's return to the market, even if it forces a form of default.
如果乌克兰的经济转变了, 国际货币基金组织对其满意, 需要俄罗斯不找茬阻碍乌克兰重返市场, 即便是它迫使违约。
But if Ukraine's reform commitment wobbles, Russia has room to cause yet more trouble.
但如果乌克兰改革承诺一旦晃动, 俄罗斯会有机会制造更多的麻烦。
1.deal with 与…交易；应付
Or do you deal with the challenge?
还是你会去处理这个挑战？
How should policy makers³⁵ deal with this ambiguity³⁶?
决策者应该怎样应付这种模糊不明？
2.lead to 通向,导致
Osteoporosis may also lead to tooth loss.
骨质疏松可能会导致牙齿脱落。
Salary differences between countries can lead to resentment³⁷.
不同国家间的薪酬差异会引起相互的敌视。
3.cut off 切除；切断
All bail-out funds would be cut off.
所有的救济资金将被切断。
He also supplied the north when america cut off energy aid.
当美国切断了能源援助的时候，他还为朝鲜提供了能源。
4.situate in 位于
I always thinking, why do I make myself to situate in this position now, for what?
我常在想，为什么我要把自己搞得那么辛苦呢？到底为的是什么？
We will try to situate it in the history of art, comparing it to other artworks in various genres³⁸.
我们会试图把它安置在艺术史中，拿它与各种流派的其他艺术品做比较。

1 withdrawals   

n.收回，取回，撤回( withdrawal的名词复数 )；撤退，撤走；收回[取回，撤回，撤退，撤走]的实例；推出（组织），提走（存款），戒除毒瘾，对说过的话收回，孤僻

参考例句：

• He has made several withdrawals from his bank account. 他从银行账户上提了几次款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is not the bank's policy to deduct interest on withdrawals. 提款需扣除利息这并非是本银行的政策。 来自辞典例句

2 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

3 deposed   

v.罢免( depose的过去式和过去分词 )；（在法庭上）宣誓作证

参考例句：

• The president was deposed in a military coup. 总统在军事政变中被废黜。
• The head of state was deposed by the army. 国家元首被军队罢免了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 propped   

支撑，支持，维持( prop的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He sat propped up in the bed by pillows. 他靠着枕头坐在床上。
• This fence should be propped up. 这栅栏该用东西支一支。

5 creditor   

n.债仅人，债主，贷方

参考例句：

• The boss assigned his car to his creditor.那工头把自己的小汽车让与了债权人。
• I had to run away from my creditor whom I made a usurious loan.我借了高利贷不得不四处躲债。

6 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

7 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

8 pipelines   

管道( pipeline的名词复数 )； 输油管道； 在考虑（或规划、准备） 中； 在酿中

参考例句：

• The oil is carried to the oil refinery by pipelines. 石油通过输油管输送到炼油厂。
• The oil carried in pipelines. 石油用管道输送。

9 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

10 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

11 situated   

adj.坐落在...的，处于某种境地的

参考例句：

• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。
• She is awkwardly situated.她的处境困难。

12 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

13 wield   

vt.行使，运用，支配；挥，使用(武器等)

参考例句：

• They wield enormous political power.他们行使巨大的政治权力。
• People may wield the power in a democracy.在民主国家里，人民可以行使权力。

14 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

15 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 inspections   

n.检查( inspection的名词复数 )；检验；视察；检阅

参考例句：

• Regular inspections are carried out at the prison. 经常有人来视察这座监狱。
• Government inspections ensure a high degree of uniformity in the standard of service. 政府检查确保了在服务标准方面的高度一致。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 mischievous   

adj.调皮的，恶作剧的，有害的，伤人的

参考例句：

• He is a mischievous but lovable boy.他是一个淘气但可爱的小孩。
• A mischievous cur must be tied short.恶狗必须拴得短。

18 manoeuvre   

n.策略，调动；v.用策略，调动

参考例句：

• Her withdrawal from the contest was a tactical manoeuvre.她退出比赛是一个战术策略。
• The clutter of ships had little room to manoeuvre.船只橫七竖八地挤在一起，几乎没有多少移动的空间。

19 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

20 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 stipulates   

n.（尤指在协议或建议中）规定，约定，讲明（条件等）( stipulate的名词复数 )；规定，明确要求v.（尤指在协议或建议中）规定，约定，讲明（条件等）( stipulate的第三人称单数 )；规定，明确要求

参考例句：

• The trade contract stipulates for the settlement of balances in RMB. 贸易合同规定余额以人民币结算。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The contract stipulates for the use of seasoned timber. 合同上订明用干透的木料。 来自辞典例句

22 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

23 profligate   

adj.行为不检的；n.放荡的人，浪子，肆意挥霍者

参考例句：

• This young man had all the inclination to be a profligate of the first water.这个青年完全有可能成为十足的浪子。
• Similarly Americans have been profligate in the handling of mineral resources.同样的，美国在处理矿产资源方面亦多浪费。

24 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

25 profligacy   

n.放荡，不检点，肆意挥霍

参考例句：

• Subsequently, this statement was quoted widely in the colony as an evidence of profligacy. 结果这句话成为肆意挥霍的一个例证在那块领地里传开了。 来自辞典例句
• Recession, they reason, must be a penance for past profligacy. 经济衰退，他们推断，肯定是对过去大肆挥霍的赎罪。 来自互联网

26 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

27 slashed   

v.挥砍( slash的过去式和过去分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Someone had slashed the tyres on my car. 有人把我的汽车轮胎割破了。
• He slashed the bark off the tree with his knife. 他用刀把树皮从树上砍下。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

30 draconian   

adj.严苛的；苛刻的；严酷的；龙一样的

参考例句：

• You can't expect the people to obey such draconian regulations.你不能指望人民服从如此严苛的规定。
• The city needs a draconian way of dealing with robbers.这个城市需要一个严苛的办法来对付强盗。

31 technocrats   

n.技术专家，专家政治论者( technocrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Few business barons remained. They were replaced by "technocrats," who became the heads of corporations. 企业巨头所剩无几，大多已被“技术专家”所代替，这些人成了公司的领导。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• However, bankers called the technocrats' bluff and proceeded to lend with gusto. 但是，银行家们称技术专家官员不过在虚张声势，并且还会乐观的继续借贷业务。 来自互联网

32 strings   

n.弦

参考例句：

• He sat on the bed,idly plucking the strings of his guitar.他坐在床上，随意地拨着吉他的弦。
• She swept her fingers over the strings of the harp.她用手指划过竖琴的琴弦。

33 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

34 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

35 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

36 ambiguity   

n.模棱两可；意义不明确

参考例句：

• The telegram was misunderstood because of its ambiguity.由于电文意义不明确而造成了误解。
• Her answer was above all ambiguity.她的回答毫不含糊。

37 resentment   

n.怨愤，忿恨

参考例句：

• All her feelings of resentment just came pouring out.她一股脑儿倾吐出所有的怨恨。
• She cherished a deep resentment under the rose towards her employer.她暗中对她的雇主怀恨在心。

38 genres   

（文学、艺术等的）类型，体裁，风格( genre的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Novel and short story are different genres. 长篇小说和短篇小说是不同的类别。
• But confusions over the two genres have a long history. 但是类型的混淆，古已有之。 来自汉英文学 - 散文英译