经济学人518:印度新政府 一剂强心剂

　　India's new government
印度新政府
Kick-starting India
一剂强心剂
India's new government must get the economy working again. Here's how
印度新政府必须让国家经济回归正轨，来看看需要怎么做。
INDIA'S mammoth¹, five-week election, involving hundreds of millions of voters, is over. Official results were due as The Economist² went to press. A new government will be formed in the coming days. Exit polls point to the Bharatiya Janata Party swooping³ back to power after a decade in opposition⁴. Narendra Modi, its leader, is set to be prime minister. Investors⁵ are excited by that prospect⁶. They like his past in running the business-friendly state of Gujarat and his talk of vikas in the campaign.
印度为期五周，超过百万人参与投票的国家大选终于落下帷幕。本期经济学人杂志出版正值官方结果出炉。在未来的日子里，印度将组建新的政府。出口民调显示，印度人民党在野十年后将重掌政权，人民党领袖纳伦德拉·莫迪将任总理。投资人深受这一消息的鼓舞。莫迪过去在管理古吉拉特邦时实行的商业友好策略以及在大选进程中发表的关于维卡斯公司发展的言论都受到投资人的欢迎。
Whoever becomes prime minister faces a long to-do list that includes everything from getting along with Pakistan to dealing⁷ with iron-ore mafias. But the priority must be repairing what by some measures is the world's third-largest economy. This is the key to lifting hundreds of millions of people from poverty and creating jobs for India's young and hungry population. It is a huge task.
无论谁当选总理，都面临着一长串的任务清单，这个清单包罗万象，从与巴基斯坦重修旧好到处理操纵铁矿石交易的黑手党。然而首要任务一定是修整这个从某种标准上算是世界第三大经济体的国家，这是解救数以亿计的贫困人口为青年和饥饿人群创造就业岗位的关键。这个任务无比艰巨。
A lost half-decade
失落的五年
印度新政府.jpg
A decade ago India's economy was winning new-found respect as a riot of energy and enterprise, but its performance in recent years has been dismal⁸. Now foreign bosses roll their eyes when you mention India, as they did in the 1980s. Growth has fallen to 5%, half the level at the peak of the 2004-08 boom. Inflation and public borrowing are too high. The rupee slumped⁹ in 2013. Private firms are fed up with red tape and graft¹⁰ and have cut investment from a peak of 17% of GDP to 9%. On some measures the country is going backwards¹¹ in time. Households have been shifting savings¹² away from banks into the ancient refuge of gold. In a country that should be industrialising, the contribution to GDP from industry has been declining while manufacturing jobs have stagnated¹³.
十年前，依附于能源和企业的迅猛发展，印度经济赢得了世界上新鲜目光的瞩目，然而近年来表现却越发不堪。现在，提到印度时，外商会像上世纪八十年代一样翻起白眼。印度的增长率下滑到5%，是它2004-08巅峰时期的一半。通货膨胀和公开借贷双双过高，2013年，卢比遭到严重贬值。私营企业对政府的繁文缛节和贪污受贿厌倦透顶，表现在投资上就是投资额在GDP中占比从17%的高峰下滑到9%。从某些方面来说，印度已经在走下坡路。家家户户都急于从银行提现并把存款转换为古老的黄金以寻求避难。作为一个工业化国家，印度工业对GDP的贡献率已经开始下滑，制造业的就业也陷于停滞。
The last government dithered and was preoccupied¹⁴ with bolstering¹⁵ India's welfare state. India's new rulers must be more strategic and ruthless. Their task has three parts.
上一届政府犹犹豫豫，一心想着把印度变为一个福利国家。新一届政策制定者应当表现的更有战略性和大胆无情。他们的任务有三方面。
First, they must tackle India's rotten banks. That might sound like a technical quibble—it is anything but. Bad debts have soared as the economy has slowed and infrastructure¹⁶ projects have got snared¹⁷ by red tape. Banks have chosen to “extend and pretend” loans to zombie firms. The cost of cleaning up banks' balance sheets could be as high as 4% of GDP—slightly larger, in relative terms, than Wall Street's bail¹⁸ out. But until the banks are fit enough to finance a new cycle of investment, no recovery will happen. Deeper financial reform is vital, too. Banks are forced to buy government bonds, giving politicians a blank cheque to borrow. Limiting that would help end the habit of reckless public deficits¹⁹.
首先需要处理的是的腐朽的银行业。这听起来可能像诡辩，但事实确是如此。经济下滑和基建项目被红头文件搁置导致了坏账的猛增，而银行却假装继续给“僵尸企业”提供贷款。清理银行资产负债表的成本可能达到GDP的4%，比起华尔街的保释要相对多一些。但是，复苏必须等到银行能够进行新一轮的投融资才有可能发生。深入的金融改革也是十分必要的。现在的银行被迫购买国债，这样政客就能够借到空头支票，而限制这个过程能够帮助政府终结轻率产生的赤字。
Second, a destabilising cycle of stagflation must be broken. High public borrowing has fuelled inflation, which stands at 9%. To protect their savings, households have bought gold from abroad, blowing a hole in the balance of payments. The new government must cut wasteful²⁰ spending on subsidies²¹ of food and fuel. But the main reason why India has not run a budget surplus since independence in 1947 is that its tax base is puny²². So the government must bring more of the economy into the tax net in order to repair the public finances.
第二点，必须打破不稳定的滞涨循环。高公债刺激了通货膨胀，当前已经达到9%。家庭为了保护存款从国外购买黄金，这样就在收支平衡表上留下了一个漏洞。新政府必须削减不必要的食品和燃料补贴。但是印度自1947年独立以来就没有过预算盈余的主要原因在它薄弱的课税基础。因此，政府应当将更多的经济活动纳入税网来恢复公共财政。
Slaying²³ stagflation also requires tough action from the central bank. Its chief, Raghuram Rajan, wants an inflation targeting regime. The government should back him and try to persuade him to stay in the job. To cut high food prices, it should abolish the state-run agricultural markets that are often in the hands of powerful locals who hoard²⁴ farmers' produce.
遏制滞涨还需要央行采取强硬行动。央行行长拉加恩希望有一个针对通货膨胀的机制，政府应当给予支持并把他稳定在行长的位子上。考虑到国营农产品市场通常都被从农民手中积聚农产品的有财力的当地人操控，政府应当废除这一市场来降低过高的食品价格。
India's not working
印度的不作为
Creating more decent jobs is the new government's third and most important task. Over the past half century most East Asian countries have prospered²⁵ by employing unskilled farmworkers in factories. India should be doing that right now. Over 10m people a year will enter the workforce²⁶ for the next decade. Labour costs are rising in China, leading firms to shift production elsewhere. Japanese companies are scrambling²⁷ to diversify²⁸ away from China as military tensions crackle. The rupee has fallen by a third against the yuan since 2010, making India's workers more competitive.
新政府第三个也是最重要的任务是制造更多体面的就业岗位。过去的半个世纪以来多数东亚国家都是通过在工厂里雇佣无需技能的农场工人来致富，印度也应当这么做。接下来的十年里会有超过千万人加入劳动力大军。中国的劳动力成本的升高导致企业纷纷另觅厂房；随着军事紧张的局势破表，日本企业争相逃离中国；2010年以来，卢比兑人民币已经贬值了三分之一，这种情况下印度的劳动力将更有竞争力。
So far India has blown it. For firms wanting to invest, access to the ingredients of production—energy, labour and land—is uncertain and expensive. The taxation²⁹ of foreign companies is a lottery³⁰. As a result, firms such as Li & Fung, which sources textiles and toys for America's supermarkets, say that factories are shifting to Bangladesh, South-East Asia and Africa, not India.
然而到目前为止，印度都搞砸了。对于想投资的企业来说，包括能源、劳力和土地在内的产品原料都太贵和太不确定。加上对外资公司的课税模式捉摸不定，造成的结果就是，像利丰集团这样为美国超市提供纺织品和玩具外包的企业把工厂转移到了孟加拉、东南亚和非洲，而不是印度。
If India is to be in the running as a manufacturing centre, the new government must restore the country's reputation as a place to do business. In some areas less government is needed: archaic³¹ labour laws should be abolished. In others a stronger state is required to supply reliable electricity or enforce contracts to let firms buy land. Through both, there needs to be a big drive to create clusters of manufacturing.
如果印度真想做制造中心，新政府就一定要重新建立起该国是个做生意的好地方的名声。在某些领域上，政府可以减少参与，比如陈旧的劳动法应当被废除。在其他领域里，政府需要扮演强大的角色，提供可靠的电力并巩固合约，以此鼓励企业买地。双管齐下的同时还需要有强劲的驱动力来牵引出一个个制造业集群。
India can go in one of two directions. It can watch its position in the world decline as its infrastructure lags further behind and its army of underemployed people grows. Or it can stabilise its finances and build a productive private sector³² that creates the jobs its young people need and turns it into a serious global power. The choice is the new government's.
印度有两条路可走。它可以忍受基础设施远远落后、失业人群不断增长，并亲眼目睹自身的世界地位渐渐没落，或者它可以稳定财政并建造一个富有成效的私营部门来为年轻人创造就业岗位，从而变成一个正经的全球性大国。选择权在新政府。

1 mammoth   

n.长毛象；adj.长毛象似的，巨大的

参考例句：

• You can only undertake mammoth changes if the finances are there.资金到位的情况下方可进行重大变革。
• Building the new railroad will be a mammoth job.修建那条新铁路将是一项巨大工程。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 swooping   

俯冲，猛冲( swoop的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The wind were swooping down to tease the waves. 大风猛扑到海面上戏弄着浪涛。
• And she was talking so well-swooping with swift wing this way and that. 而她却是那样健谈--一下子谈到东，一下子谈到西。

4 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

7 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

8 dismal   

adj.阴沉的，凄凉的，令人忧郁的，差劲的

参考例句：

• That is a rather dismal melody.那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
• My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal.我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。

9 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

10 graft   

n.移植，嫁接，艰苦工作，贪污；v.移植，嫁接

参考例句：

• I am having a skin graft on my arm soon.我马上就要接受手臂的皮肤移植手术。
• The minister became rich through graft.这位部长透过贪污受贿致富。

11 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

12 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

13 stagnated   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
• His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句

14 preoccupied   

adj.全神贯注的，入神的；被抢先占有的；心事重重的v.占据（某人）思想，使对…全神贯注，使专心于( preoccupy的过去式)

参考例句：

• He was too preoccupied with his own thoughts to notice anything wrong. 他只顾想着心事，没注意到有什么不对。
• The question of going to the Mount Tai preoccupied his mind. 去游泰山的问题盘踞在他心头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 bolstering   

v.支持( bolster的现在分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• Why should Donahue's people concern themselves with bolstering your image? 唐纳休的人为什么要费心维护你的形象？ 来自辞典例句
• He needed bolstering and support. 他需要别人助他一臂之力。 来自辞典例句

16 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

17 snared   

v.用罗网捕捉，诱陷，陷害( snare的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He snared a job with IBM. 他以巧妙的手段在 IBM 公司谋得一职。 来自辞典例句
• The hunter snared a skunk. 猎人捕得一只臭鼬。 来自辞典例句

18 bail   

v.舀（水），保释；n.保证金，保释，保释人

参考例句：

• One of the prisoner's friends offered to bail him out.犯人的一个朋友答应保释他出来。
• She has been granted conditional bail.她被准予有条件保释。

19 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

20 wasteful   

adj.（造成）浪费的，挥霍的

参考例句：

• It is a shame to be so wasteful.这样浪费太可惜了。
• Duties have been reassigned to avoid wasteful duplication of work.为避免重复劳动浪费资源，任务已经重新分派。

21 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 puny   

adj.微不足道的，弱小的

参考例句：

• The resources at the central banks' disposal are simply too puny.中央银行掌握的资金实在太少了。
• Antonio was a puny lad,and not strong enough to work.安东尼奥是个瘦小的小家伙，身体还不壮，还不能干活。

23 slaying   

杀戮。

参考例句：

• The man mimed the slaying of an enemy. 此人比手划脚地表演砍死一个敌人的情况。
• He is suspected of having been an accomplice in the slaying,butthey can't pin it on him. 他有嫌疑曾参与该杀人案，但他们找不到证据来指控他。

24 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

25 prospered   

成功，兴旺( prosper的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The organization certainly prospered under his stewardship. 不可否认，这个组织在他的管理下兴旺了起来。
• Mr. Black prospered from his wise investments. 布莱克先生由于巧妙的投资赚了不少钱。

26 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

27 scrambling   

v.快速爬行( scramble的现在分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Scrambling up her hair, she darted out of the house. 她匆忙扎起头发，冲出房去。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• She is scrambling eggs. 她正在炒蛋。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

29 taxation   

n.征税，税收，税金

参考例句：

• He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。

30 lottery   

n.抽彩；碰运气的事，难于算计的事

参考例句：

• He won no less than ￡5000 in the lottery.他居然中了5000英镑的奖券。
• They thought themselves lucky in the lottery of life.他们认为自己是变幻莫测的人生中的幸运者。

31 archaic   

adj.(语言、词汇等)古代的，已不通用的

参考例句：

• The company does some things in archaic ways,such as not using computers for bookkeeping.这个公司有些做法陈旧，如记账不使用电脑。
• Shaanxi is one of the Chinese archaic civilized origins which has a long history.陕西省是中国古代文明发祥之一，有悠久的历史。

32 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。