2022年经济学人 通货膨胀：战时的世界经济（2）

Things could get much worse should sanctions expand in scope to cover energy purchases or if Russia retaliates¹ against them by reducing its exports.

如果制裁的范围扩大到能源采购，或者如果俄罗斯通过减少出口来报复制裁，情况可能会变得更糟。

JPMorgan Chase projects that a sustained shut-off of the Russian oil supply might cause prices to rise to $150 per barrel, a level sufficient to knock 1.6% off global gdp while raising consumer prices by another 2%.

摩根大通预计，俄罗斯石油供应的持续中断可能导致油价升至每桶150美元，这种价格足以使全球GDP下降1.6%，同时消费者价格将再上涨2%。

The stagflationary shock would carry echoes of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, which sparked the first of the two energy crises of that decade.

滞胀冲击会让人想起1973年的赎罪日战争，那场战争引发了那十年中两次能源危机中的第一次。

It greatly worsened an existing inflation problem caused in part by the collapse² earlier that year of the Bretton Woods system of fixed³ exchange rates.

它极大地恶化了已有的通货膨胀问题，部分原因是当年早些时候布雷顿森林固定汇率体系的崩溃。

Today much pricier energy would be layered atop the inflation caused by the pandemic and the associated stimulus⁴.

今天，价格高得多的能源会被置于疫情和相关刺激措施造成的通胀之上。

If the oil and gas keep flowing, the existing increases in their respective prices will still make life uncomfortable for central banks, who were anyway raising or preparing to raise interest rates.

如果石油和天然气可以继续供应，它们现有的价格涨幅仍然会让央行坐立难安，因为央行无论如何都会加息或准备加息。

They usually tolerate inflation caused by expensive energy. It tends to quickly dissipate, or even go into reverse.

央行通常会容忍由昂贵的能源引起的通货膨胀。这种通胀往往会迅速消散，甚至逆转。

But recently they have worried that the persistence⁵ of high inflation since last summer might lead companies to think they should continue to increase prices at a rapid pace and workers to continue to ask for higher wages.

但最近，央行担心，自去年夏天以来持续存在的高通胀可能会让企业认为，它们应该继续快速提高物价，工人们也会继续要求加薪。

Inflation, in other words, may have taken on a momentum⁶ of its own. Further increases in energy prices can only heighten that danger—while adding to the squeeze on growth that higher interest rates bring about.

换句话说，通货膨胀可能已经呈现出了一种势头。能源价格的进一步上涨只会加剧这种危险——同时还会进一步挤压高利率带来的经济增长。

At present markets are priced for a fairly conventional policy response.

目前，市场是根据相当常规的政策回应做出的定价。

Since February 1st investors⁷’ inflation expectations, as revealed by the price of swaps⁸, have risen sharply at a one-year horizon for Britain, America and the euro zone.

从2月1日起，投资者对英国、美国和欧元区的通货膨胀预期，跟一年前相比急剧上升，正如互换价格所显示的那样。

Yet expectations for longer-term inflation, as measured by long-dated forward swaps, have not changed much.

然而，用远期互换来衡量的长期通胀预期并没有多大变化。

Projections⁹ of the ecb’s policy rate at the end of the year have barely changed.

人们对欧洲央行年底政策利率的预测几乎没有改变。

Investors have priced in another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rise in interest rates this year in both Britain and America.

投资者已经消化了英国和美国今年利率将再次上升0.25个百分点的预期。

On March 2nd Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal reserve, indicated that it would still raise rates.

3月2日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储仍将加息。

There have, however, been sharp movements in bond yields at longer horizons.

然而，长期来看，债券收益率出现了剧烈波动。

In mid-February yields on five-year German government bonds had been in positive territory for the first time since 2018. They have since fallen to about -0.25%.

2月中旬，五年期德国政府债券收益率自2018年以来首次处于正区间。自那以来，收益率已降至-0.25%左右。

On March 1st and 2nd the yield on an American ten-year Treasury¹⁰ bond fell from nearly 2% to 1.7%, a greater fall than in any two-day trading period since March 2020, before recovering slightly to 1.9% the next day.

3月1日和2日，美国十年期国债收益率从近2%跌至1.7%，跌幅超过2020年3月以来的任何两日交易时段，次日略有回升至1.9%。

In other words, investors are betting that today’s inflation, even once exacerbated¹¹ by the war in Ukraine, will be temporary—and that over the long term interest rates are likely to be a bit lower than on past projections. But that hardly means markets are sanguine¹².

换句话说，投资者正在押注眼下的通货膨胀(即便曾因乌克兰战争而加剧)只是暂时的，而且长期利率可能会比过去的预测略低。但这并不意味着市场是乐观的。

In recent years some scholars have argued that low long-term real interest rates reflect in part the impulse to hoard¹³ safe assets as tail risks—rare but highly costly¹⁴ events—grow more likely.

近年来，一些学者认为，长期的低实际利率在一定程度上反映了人们囤积安全资产的冲动，因为尾部风险发生的可能性更大了，尾部风险是很少发生，但代价高昂的事件。

After two years of a pandemic and with war raging in Europe, that thesis has never seemed so apposite.

在欧洲经历了两年的疫情和战争肆虐之后，这一论点似乎从未如此贴切。

1 retaliates   

v.报复，反击( retaliate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Lincoln suggests Si Tan pauses, the letter that writes acrimonious of a content retaliates that fellow. 林肯建议斯坦顿，写一封内容尖刻的信回敬那家伙。 来自互联网
• If it does not, and the US imposes tariffs and China retaliates, what then? 如果它不让步，而美国开征关税，中国加以报复，接下来会怎样？ 来自互联网

2 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

3 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

4 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

5 persistence   

n.坚持，持续，存留

参考例句：

• The persistence of a cough in his daughter puzzled him.他女儿持续的咳嗽把他难住了。
• He achieved success through dogged persistence.他靠着坚持不懈取得了成功。

6 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 swaps   

交换( swap的名词复数 )； 交换物，被掉换者

参考例句：

• He swaps his old car for a new motorcycle. 他用旧车换了一辆新摩托车。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语
• Swaps the anchor and end points of the current selection. 交换当前所选内容的定位点和结束点。

9 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

10 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

11 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 sanguine   

adj.充满希望的，乐观的，血红色的

参考例句：

• He has a sanguine attitude to life.他对于人生有乐观的看法。
• He is not very sanguine about our chances of success.他对我们成功的机会不太乐观。

13 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

14 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。