密歇根新闻广播 特朗普竞选让人想起共和党曾经的灾难

If you turn on any of the cable news channels, the odds¹ are you will soon see a studio full of Republican analysts³ wringing⁴ their hands and discussing whether Donald Trump⁵ can be stopped. The answer, as the candidates convene⁶ on Michigan, is very likely not.

Nobody I know really thinks Trump will lose the Michigan primary in five days, though the conventional, or establishment Republicans are talking about holding down his margin⁷.

Their last real hope of stopping him comes in twelve days. Beginning on March 15, most GOP state primaries switch to a winner-take-all system, rather than dividing delegates proportionally.

They hope that Marco Rubio can win his home state of Florida and John Kasich his Ohio, denying Trump any delegates from those two big states, and hopefully preventing him from getting to the convention in Cleveland with a first ballot⁸ majority.

Well, that's mathematically possible. But anytime you have a candidate who wins landslide⁹ primary victories in both Massachusetts and Alabama on the same night, you have a national phenomenon. There is also no candidate who offers countervailing universal appeal. But what many Republicans really fear, however, is not Trump's policies.

They worry he will be defeated in a terrible landslide that will take hundreds of other Republicans in Congress and state legislatures with him. And that may be a legitimate¹⁰ fear. In fact, it happened before, with particularly devastating¹¹ consequences for Republicans in Michigan. The year was 1964, and Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater was moving towards the Republican Presidential nomination¹².

Goldwater was not as crassly¹³ vulgar as Trump. That was not an age when candidates made fun of their opponents' appearances or had to be bleeped. But in other ways, the resemblance is uncannily familiar. Goldwater had policies that frightened people.

He talked about selling off the Tennessee Valley Authority and making Social Security voluntary, something oddly echoed by Trump's proposal to replace Medicaid with block grants to the states. Trump talks about bombing ISIS into oblivion; Goldwater joked about lobbing a nuclear missile into the men's room at the Kremlin.

Goldwater opposed the landmark¹⁴ Civil Rights Bill of 1964, saying it infringed¹⁵ personal freedoms. National Republican leaders reacted to all of that exactly as they are now. But all efforts to stop him were futile¹⁶.

Back then, Michigan governors still had to run every two years. George Romney, running for a second term, angered conservatives by refusing to endorse¹⁷ Goldwater. It was a smart move. Goldwater became the only presidential candidate in history to lose Michigan by more than a million votes. But more than 700,000 people split their tickets to reelect Romney.

But otherwise, Michigan Republicans were devastated¹⁸. They lost five seats in Congress. Democrats¹⁹ won enormous majorities in both houses of the legislature. Nationally, the picture was pretty much the same.

Barry Goldwater lost by sixteen million votes. Democrats ended up with more than twice as many seats as Republicans in both houses of Congress, meaning President Lyndon Johnson could get pretty much anything he wanted, which is how Medicare and Medicaid and Head Start and many other programs came to be born. Republicans soon began to recover.

But that election was a traumatic experience for the GOP. This year, there is increasing fear they may be about to repeat it.

Jack²⁰ Lessenberry is Michigan Radio's political analyst². Views expressed in his essays are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Michigan Radio, its management or the station licensee, The University of Michigan.

1 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 wringing   

淋湿的，湿透的

参考例句：

• He was wringing wet after working in the field in the hot sun. 烈日下在田里干活使他汗流满面。
• He is wringing out the water from his swimming trunks. 他正在把游泳裤中的水绞出来。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 convene   

v.集合，召集，召唤，聚集，集合

参考例句：

• The Diet will convene at 3p.m. tomorrow.国会将于明天下午三点钟开会。
• Senior officials convened in October 1991 in London.1991年10月，高级官员在伦敦会齐。

7 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

8 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

9 landslide   

n.(竞选中)压倒多数的选票；一面倒的胜利

参考例句：

• Our candidate is predicated to win by a landslide.我们的候选人被预言将以绝对优势取胜。
• An electoral landslide put the Labour Party into power in 1945.1945年工党以压倒多数的胜利当选执政。

10 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

11 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

12 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

13 crassly   

adv.粗鲁地，愚钝地

参考例句：

• I know one investment banking boss who penalises underlings for lobbying crassly. 我认识的一位投行老板就会惩罚那些过分游说的下级。 来自互联网

14 landmark   

n.陆标，划时代的事，地界标

参考例句：

• The Russian Revolution represents a landmark in world history.俄国革命是世界历史上的一个里程碑。
• The tower was once a landmark for ships.这座塔曾是船只的陆标。

15 infringed   

v.违反（规章等）( infringe的过去式和过去分词 )；侵犯（某人的权利）；侵害（某人的自由、权益等）

参考例句：

• Wherever the troops went, they never infringed on the people's interests. 大军过处，秋毫无犯。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He was arrested on a charge of having infringed the Election Law. 他因被指控触犯选举法而被拘捕。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 futile   

adj.无效的，无用的，无希望的

参考例句：

• They were killed,to the last man,in a futile attack.因为进攻失败，他们全部被杀，无一幸免。
• Their efforts to revive him were futile.他们对他抢救无效。

17 endorse   

vt.(支票、汇票等)背书，背署；批注；同意

参考例句：

• No one is foolish enough to endorse it.没有哪个人会傻得赞成它。
• I fully endorse your opinions on this subject.我完全拥护你对此课题的主张。

18 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

19 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。