美国国家公共电台 NPR James Hansen: What Makes A Scientist Take A Stand?

 

GUY RAZ, HOST:

It's the TED¹ Radio Hour from NPR. I'm Guy Raz. And on the show today, Speaking Up, ideas about what it takes and when you know it's time to say something.

JAMES HANSEN: As the ocean gets warmer that melts the ice shelves that come out from Antarctica and Greenland into the ocean.

RAZ: This is climate scientist James Hansen.

HANSEN: So if you once get the ocean to warm, there's practically no way to stop it.

RAZ: And the impact of climate change on the planet was why he testified in front of Congress back in 2014.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

HANSEN: The statement that you just made is blatantly² false. We do know...

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: How do you explain climate change has occurred 10,000 years ago before man had a carbon print? All those...

HANSEN: No one said it is all manmade. There are natural...

UNIDENTIFIED MAN: Well, that's the - kind of the attack that environmentalists take.

HANSEN: However, the manmade effect is now dominant³. This decade is going to be warmer than the last one, and the following one will be still warmer.

RAZ: But here's the thing. This wasn't the first time James was speaking up on Capitol Hill because back in the 1980s, he was one of the first scientists to warn Congress and the world, really, about climate change.

HANSEN: Actually, my first testimony⁴ was after my first major paper on climate which was published in Science in 1981.

RAZ: And at the time, James was a leading scientist at NASA. And his article in Science magazine was kind of a big deal.

HANSEN: This paper pretty much told the story that you can't burn all the fossil fuels and still keep a planet that looks like the one that civilization developed on.

RAZ: James Hansen picks up the story from the TED stage.

HANSEN: In 1981, we published an article in Science magazine concluding that Earth would likely warm in the 1980s, and warming would exceed the noise level of random⁵ weather by the end of the century. We also said that the 21st century would see shifting climate zones, creation of drought-prone regions in North America and Asia, erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels and opening of the fabled⁶ Northwest Passage.

That paper led to me testifying to Congress in the 1980s testimony in which I emphasized that global warming increases both extremes of the Earth's water cycle - heatwaves and droughts on one hand directly from the warming, but also because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor⁷ with its latent energy, rainfall will become more extreme events. There will be stronger storms and greater flooding. All of these impacts have since either happened or are now well underway.

RAZ: OK. So this might all sound normal now, but that testimony which was in 1988 was really important because James and a few other scientists did something that was kind of frowned upon in the scientific community. In Congress, they spoke⁸ up, and they said climate change is real.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

HANSEN: Altogether, this evidence represents a very strong case in my opinion that the greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now.

Yeah. Yeah that's what we said, but it's - things haven't changed.

RAZ: But when you made that testimony, was it risky⁹ for you? Were there people who said, you know, like what are you doing?

HANSEN: The 1988 testimony was risky in the sense of the scientific community was likely to have some backlash about that because the scientific community is reticent¹⁰ to speak out until things are so certain that there's no possibility of having something wrong.

RAZ: And there was backlash. Some people said James Hansen was crying wolf. There were even calls to have him fired. And the strange thing was, it wasn't really what he said, but that he said it at all.

HANSEN: They said if there were a secret ballot¹¹, we would probably agree that the global warming is there. But we don't like a scientist stepping out and saying that in public.

RAZ: And even though James Hansen was one of the few scientists to speak out on this issue, in the years after his testimony, the body of overwhelming scientific evidence around climate change obviously grew.

(SOUNDBITE OF TED TALK)

HANSEN: By 15 years later, evidence of global warming was much stronger. Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper were facts. I had the privilege to speak twice to the president's climate task force, but energy policies continued to focus on finding more fossil fuels. By then, we had two grandchildren - Sophie and Connor. I decided¹² that I did not want them in the future to say opah understood what was happening, but he didn't make it clear. So I decided to give a public talk criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.

I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004 and at that 2005 meeting of the American Geophysical Union. This led to calls from the Whitehouse to NASA headquarters, and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media without prior explicit¹³ approval. After I informed The New York Times about these restrictions¹⁴, NASA was forced to end the censorship. How did I get dragged deeper and deeper into an attempt to communicate the gravity and the urgency of this situation? More grandchildren helped me along. Jake is a super positive, enthusiastic boy. Here at age 2 and a half years, he thinks he can protect his two and a half day old little sister. It would be immoral¹⁵ to leave these young people with the climate system spiraling out of control.

So now you know what I know that is moving me to sound this alarm. Imagine a giant asteroid¹⁶ on a direct collision course with Earth. That is the equivalent of what we face now, yet we dither taking no action to divert the asteroid. If we'd started in 2005, it would have required emission¹⁷ reductions of 3 percent per year to restore planetary energy balance and stabilize¹⁸ climate this century. If we start next year, it is 6 percent per year. If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year - extremely difficult and expensive, perhaps, impossible. But we aren't even starting.

RAZ: Why do you think it's important for scientists to speak out?

HANSEN: Because scientists are trained to be objective, and that's the critical factor. And it's a difficulty I have with both political parties because their decisions are influenced so much by their politics and other things. So I think the objectivity of science is really needed in issues like this.

RAZ: So what are the consequences if if scientists don't speak up?

HANSEN: Well I think the greatest threat that civilization faces - because if you wait too long, the system can be out of control. With regard to ice sheets and sea level rise, there's practically no way to stop it. And it's amazing how many of our large cities in the world - more than half - are located on coastlines. The migration¹⁹ that would be forced by large sea level rise from Bangladesh in the Netherlands and Florida - so we really can't let that happen. And that's the big danger that we may lock that in. So I did have to speak out.

RAZ: Dr. James Hansen - he retired²⁰ from NASA after 32 years. He now heads up the Climate Science Awareness²¹ and Solutions program at Columbia University's Earth Institute. You can find his full talk at ted.com.

1 ted   

vt.翻晒，撒，撒开

参考例句：

• The invaders gut ted the village.侵略者把村中财物洗劫一空。
• She often teds the corn when it's sunny.天好的时候她就翻晒玉米。

2 blatantly   

ad.公开地

参考例句：

• Safety guidelines had been blatantly ignored. 安全规章被公然置之不顾。
• They walked grandly through the lobby, blatantly arm in arm, pretending they were not defeated. 他们大大方方地穿过门厅，故意炫耀地挎着胳膊，假装他们没有被打败。

3 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

4 testimony   

n.证词；见证，证明

参考例句：

• The testimony given by him is dubious.他所作的证据是可疑的。
• He was called in to bear testimony to what the police officer said.他被传入为警官所说的话作证。

5 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

6 fabled   

adj.寓言中的，虚构的

参考例句：

• For the first week he never actually saw the fabled Jack. 第一周他实际上从没见到传说中的杰克。
• Aphrodite, the Greek goddness of love, is fabled to have been born of the foam of the sea. 希腊爱神阿美罗狄蒂据说是诞生于海浪泡沫之中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 vapor   

n.蒸汽，雾气

参考例句：

• The cold wind condenses vapor into rain.冷风使水蒸气凝结成雨。
• This new machine sometimes transpires a lot of hot vapor.这部机器有时排出大量的热气。

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

10 reticent   

adj.沉默寡言的；言不如意的

参考例句：

• He was reticent about his opinion.他有保留意见。
• He was extremely reticent about his personal life.他对自己的个人生活讳莫如深。

11 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

12 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

13 explicit   

adj.详述的，明确的；坦率的；显然的

参考例句：

• She was quite explicit about why she left.她对自己离去的原因直言不讳。
• He avoids the explicit answer to us.他避免给我们明确的回答。

14 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

15 immoral   

adj.不道德的，淫荡的，荒淫的，有伤风化的

参考例句：

• She was questioned about his immoral conduct toward her.她被询问过有关他对她的不道德行为的情况。
• It is my belief that nuclear weapons are immoral.我相信使核武器是不邪恶的。

16 asteroid   

n.小行星；海盘车(动物)

参考例句：

• Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.天文学家还没有目击过小行星撞击其它行星。
• It's very unlikely that an asteroid will crash into Earth but the danger exists.小行星撞地球的可能性很小，但这样的危险还是存在的。

17 emission   

n.发出物，散发物；发出，散发

参考例句：

• Rigorous measures will be taken to reduce the total pollutant emission.采取严格有力措施，降低污染物排放总量。
• Finally,the way to effectively control particulate emission is pointed out.最后，指出有效降低颗粒排放的方向。

18 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

19 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

20 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

21 awareness   

n.意识，觉悟，懂事，明智

参考例句：

• There is a general awareness that smoking is harmful.人们普遍认识到吸烟有害健康。
• Environmental awareness has increased over the years.这些年来人们的环境意识增强了。