美国国家公共电台 NPR Betting On Artificial Intelligence To Guide Earthquake Response

 

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

Planning for natural disasters involves dealing¹ with a lot of uncertainty², but advances in artificial intelligence may allow computers to take some of the guesswork out of the planning process. NPR's science correspondent Joe Palca traveled to Palo Alto, Calif. That's where a startup company is using machine learning and artificial intelligence to advise fire departments on how best to respond in an earthquake.

JOE PALCA, BYLINE³: Computers may play a role in preparing for and responding to natural disasters like earthquakes, but Nicole Hu knows they'll never play the most important role.

NICOLE HU: The true heroes on the ground are the ones who actually know how to respond in terms of a disaster.

PALCA: Hu is chief technology officer for a startup called One Concern. Her company is trying to make the job of first responders easier when an earthquake hits. I met Hu at her well-appointed, open-plan office in Palo Alto. We sat in her conference room as she sketched⁴ out how she is using artificial intelligence to do this. The key is providing computers with mountains of data relevant to predicting what's at risk in an earthquake - for example, data about the built environment, things like homes and buildings.

HU: We have almost every information about most buildings in the United States.

PALCA: What they're made of, when they were built, how likely they are to collapse⁵ when the ground starts shaking. There's also a lot of data about the natural environment.

HU: What is the soil like? What's the elevation⁶ like? What's the general humidity like?

PALCA: What's the underlying⁷ geology in an area like? All this data lets you build maps of what regions are most vulnerable in an earthquake.

HU: Machine learning does help you do that.

PALCA: Here's basically how it works. The computer takes all this data and makes a prediction about what will happen in an earthquake. It then uses data from past earthquakes to see whether its predictions are any good and then revises its predictive models. In other words, it learns as it goes. Stanford University earthquake engineer Gregory Deierlein is an adviser⁸ for One Concern. He says one of the most remarkable⁹ things about the company's software is it can incorporate data from an earthquake as it's happening and adjust its predictions in real time.

GREGORY DEIERLEIN: Those sort of things used to be research projects where after an event, we would collect data, and a few years later we'd produce new models.

PALCA: Now the new models appear in a matter of minutes. Still, even though he's an adviser to One Concern, Deierlein says he doesn't know all the details of their approach.

DEIERLEIN: Like many kind of startup companies, they're not fully¹⁰ transparent¹¹ in everything they're doing. I mean, (laughter) that's their kind of proprietary¹² knowledge that they're bringing to it.

PALCA: Even if their methods are a bit opaque¹³, some first responders are already convinced the software will be useful. I went to visit Fire Chief Dan Ghiorso of the Woodside Fire Protection District just up the road from Palo Alto. Ghiorso's district is about 32 square miles.

DAN GHIORSO: So it's quite a large district. And we have the San Andreas fault running a couple hundred feet behind us.

PALCA: Ghiorso says in the past when an earthquake hit, he'd have to make educated guesses about what parts of his district might have suffered the most damage and then drive out and have a look. The software changes that. He calls up a map of how his fire district might look if a 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck nearby.

GHIORSO: Instead of all of it being blue where there's no damage, we have some of what they call level two and then level three.

PALCA: Level three are areas predicted to have bad damage. They show up as red on the map.

GHIORSO: So what I would do is, if this was a live scenario¹⁴, I would look at this and say, hey, we need to get some people out into those red areas and see, what is the damage? Is there really damage?

PALCA: Now, these are just computer-generated predictions. But Ghiorso says he's sure they'll be extremely useful in a real disaster for showing where help is needed the most.

GHIORSO: Instead of me taking my educated guess, they're putting science behind this. So I'm very confident.

PALCA: Unfortunately, it's going to take a natural disaster to see if his confidence is fully justified¹⁵. Joe Palca, NPR News.

1 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

2 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 sketched   

v.草拟（sketch的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The historical article sketched the major events of the decade. 这篇有关历史的文章概述了这十年中的重大事件。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He sketched the situation in a few vivid words. 他用几句生动的语言简述了局势。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

5 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

6 elevation   

n.高度；海拔；高地；上升；提高

参考例句：

• The house is at an elevation of 2,000 metres.那幢房子位于海拔两千米的高处。
• His elevation to the position of General Manager was announced yesterday.昨天宣布他晋升总经理职位。

7 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

8 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

9 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

10 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

11 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

12 proprietary   

n.所有权，所有的；独占的；业主

参考例句：

• We had to take action to protect the proprietary technology.我们必须采取措施保护专利技术。
• Proprietary right is the foundation of jus rerem.所有权是物权法之根基。

13 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

14 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

15 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。