美国国家公共电台 NPR How Closing The Border Would Affect U.S. Economy, From Avocados To Autos

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

President Trump¹ says Mexico and Central American countries are not doing enough to stop the flow of migrants. So he has issued this threat.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: If they don't stop them, we're closing the border. They'll close it. And we'll keep it closed for a long time. I'm not playing games.

MARTIN: This is not the first time President Trump has sounded that warning. The border in San Diego was shut down for a few hours last year. This time, though, the president hasn't followed through on the threat. Stopping cross-border traffic with one of the nation's biggest trading partners could do serious damage to the U.S. economy. NPR's Scott Horsley reports.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE²: Retailers³ in San Diego got a small taste of what a border shutdown might look like last November, when members of a migrant caravan⁴ charged the border and U.S. officials closed one border crossing in response. While that shutdown lasted only a few hours, it came on what should have been one of the busiest shopping days of the year, and fallout for local merchants was severe.

LOUIE SALOUMI: I easily, easily lost between $3,500 to $4,500 just that day.

HORSLEY: Louie Saloumi runs a churro stand in a large outlet⁵ mall just north of the border. Nine out of 10 customers there walk or drive over from Mexico. When that traffic was cut off for less than a day, the hit to the local economy topped $5 million. Saloumi says if the border were closed for a full week, he'd be out of business.

SALOUMI: That mall would be a ghost town.

HORSLEY: Closing the entire U.S. border with Mexico would also put the brakes on more than $1.5 billion in goods crossing back and forth⁶ every day, including 50 million pounds of produce from Mexico that now fills 100 warehouses⁷ in Nogales, Ariz. One importer warned the U.S. would run out of avocados in three weeks. But guacamole is the least of it. Lance Jungmeyer, who heads the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, says fresh tomatoes, peppers, melons and eggplant for the whole country would soon be in short supply.

LANCE JUNGMEYER: Probably over half of what most consumers put in their shopping bag when it comes to fresh produce, they would find reduced quantities and higher prices.

HORSLEY: Jungmeyer says the administration's already planning to halt truck traffic through Nogales on Sundays as customs officers, who typically staff the border crossing there, are reassigned to deal with the influx⁸ of Central American migrants. If that shutdown extends to other days of the week, Jungmeyer worries some people will be out of work.

JUNGMEYER: There's jobs that depend on moving goods back and forth every day. And if that's not moving, those people are laid off. And that means those people are not able to keep the lights on in their own homes and put groceries in their own refrigerator. So it gets really dicey really quick.

HORSLEY: And those effects are not limited to the border region. Mexico's a critical supplier for companies throughout the U.S., especially in the highly integrated auto⁹ industry.

KRISTIN DZICZEK: We don't just trade with each other. We're making things together.

HORSLEY: Kristin Dziczek of the Center for Automotive Research says Mexico supplies 37 percent of all imported car parts in the U.S. and more than 70 percent of some critical components¹⁰. Dziczek says because some of those parts are central to a car's assembly, without them, factories would soon grind to a halt. And that, in turn, would idle domestic parts makers¹¹.

DZICZEK: We'll see auto production in the U.S. shut down pretty quickly. Some within hours, and certainly, the whole industry within days.

HORSLEY: Dziczek says the fallout from a complete border shutdown would be so fast and so sweeping¹², it's hard to take the president's threat seriously. But White House counselor¹³ Kellyanne Conway insisted on "Fox News Sunday" it's a real possibility.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "FOX NEWS SUNDAY")

KELLYANNE CONWAY: It certainly isn't a bluff¹⁴. You can take the president seriously.

HORSLEY: Companies throughout the U.S. routinely make contingency¹⁵ plans for supply disruptions, but it's impossible to prepare for something like a complete border shutdown. If the worst does happen, Dziczek jokes she does have one consolation¹⁶, a stockpile of tequila that can last for a while.

Scott Horsley, NPR News, Washington.

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

4 caravan   

n.大蓬车；活动房屋

参考例句：

• The community adviser gave us a caravan to live in.社区顾问给了我们一间活动住房栖身。
• Geoff connected the caravan to the car.杰弗把旅行用的住屋拖车挂在汽车上。

5 outlet   

n.出口/路；销路；批发商店；通风口；发泄

参考例句：

• The outlet of a water pipe was blocked.水管的出水口堵住了。
• Running is a good outlet for his energy.跑步是他发泄过剩精力的好方法。

6 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

7 warehouses   

仓库，货栈( warehouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee. 威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• Row upon row of newly built warehouses line the waterfront. 江岸新建的仓库鳞次栉比。

8 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

9 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

10 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

11 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

13 counselor   

n.顾问，法律顾问

参考例句：

• The counselor gave us some disinterested advice.顾问给了我们一些无私的忠告。
• Chinese commercial counselor's office in foreign countries.中国驻国外商务参赞处。

14 bluff   

v.虚张声势，用假象骗人；n.虚张声势，欺骗

参考例句：

• His threats are merely bluff.他的威胁仅仅是虚张声势。
• John is a deep card.No one can bluff him easily.约翰是个机灵鬼。谁也不容易欺骗他。

15 contingency   

n.意外事件，可能性

参考例句：

• We should be prepared for any contingency.我们应该对任何应急情况有所准备。
• A fire in our warehouse was a contingency that we had not expected.库房的一场大火是我们始料未及的。

16 consolation   

n.安慰，慰问

参考例句：

• The children were a great consolation to me at that time.那时孩子们成了我的莫大安慰。
• This news was of little consolation to us.这个消息对我们来说没有什么安慰。