美国国家公共电台 NPR What Just Happened Also Occurred Before The Last 7 U.S. Recessions. Reason To Worry?

 

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We'd like to talk about the economy now. With a campaign for the upcoming presidential election already underway, you can expect the state of the economy to get a lot of attention. And one of the tools economists¹ use to predict whether a recession is coming is the yield curve, so we want to tell you what that is and why it matters.

We've called Campbell Harvey for that. He's a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, and he was the first to demonstrate that the yield curve can predict a recession. Professor Harvey also says he only considers the indicator² definitive³ if the inverted⁴ yield curve lasts for an entire quarter. And, well, the quarter ends today, so here to give us his thoughts about what's to come is professor Campbell Harvey.

Welcome. Thank you so much for joining us.

CAMPBELL HARVEY: Great to be on the show.

MARTIN: All right. So let's get the headline, and then we'll work backwards⁵. Are we going into a recession?

HARVEY: The yield curve has inverted for a full quarter, and that has been associated with predicting a recession for the last seven recessions. So from 1960s, this indicator has been reliable in terms of foretelling⁶ a recession. And also, importantly, it has not given any false signals yet.

MARTIN: So that would mean yes (laughter).

HARVEY: That means yes.

MARTIN: OK. So let me break down - let me ask you to break down what that means. What is the yield curve, and what does it mean when it's inverted?

HARVEY: So the yield curve represents interest rates at different maturities⁷. So usually, it's the case that a longer-term interest rate has a higher rate than a short-term interest rate. So think of a certificate of deposit at your bank. If you lock your money up for five years, you expect to get a higher rate than, let's say, locking it up for six months.

But in certain rare situations, things get backwards, and it turns out that the long-term interest rate is lower than the short-term rate. And that's called an inverted yield curve. That's exactly the situation we've got right now. And it is a harbinger of bad news.

MARTIN: So unemployment is at a 50-year low. The GDP is growing. Does that have an effect on the yield curve?

HARVEY: So what happens to GDP in the first quarter - that is the past. Corporate⁸ earnings⁹, whatever they are - that's the past. Unemployment is a classic lagging indicator. So yes, the economy looks good right now, but the yield curve - the beauty of the yield curve is that it's about the future. It reflects the future, and it captures the expectations of the broad market in terms of what might happen in the future.

MARTIN: So before we let you go - and I apologize if this is kind of reductionist, but this is something that journalists are always accused of all the time, so I'm going to ask. Is there any risk of this being a self-fulfilling prophecy? Is there any validity to the idea that if you, you know, believe that a recession is coming that you could actually in some way influence that it will? Is there any validity to that at all? Not that it's going to change our reporting on what - the facts. But I have to ask.

HARVEY: Sure. And it's a great question. When I originally published my research, nobody much noticed the yield curve. But then it got a considerable profile in predicting the global financial crisis. So now it's on the radar¹⁰ screen. My model is not a model that says the yield curve causes a recession. It is a model that says, well, there's information in the yield curve that can help you forecast a recession. But the idea of self-fulfilling prophecy essentially¹¹ perhaps makes it causal - that people see this red flag. They know its reliability¹², and they are more cautious.

So think of a company - major expansion, need to borrow money to build a new plant. The yield curve inverts¹³, and they say, well, let's wait. Or a consumer going on a big vacation where you know that you need to borrow on the credit card. Yield curve inverts - well, maybe we should defer¹⁴ that expensive vacation.

So I look at it more in terms of risk management. This is an important piece of information that helps people plan. It helps corporations plan. And if you can be prudent¹⁵, you avoid the situation where, oh, you go ahead and build that plant, you borrow the money, we go into recession, and you're out of business, and people are laid off. So I believe that this indicator gives people the ability to do prudent risk management and enhances the possibility that we have a soft landing, not a hard landing like the global financial crisis.

MARTIN: That was Campbell Harvey. He is a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. You heard the man.

Professor Harvey, thank you so much for talking to us.

HARVEY: Thank you.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

3 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

4 inverted   

adj.反向的，倒转的v.使倒置，使反转( invert的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Only direct speech should go inside inverted commas. 只有直接引语应放在引号内。
• Inverted flight is an acrobatic manoeuvre of the plane. 倒飞是飞机的一种特技动作。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

6 foretelling   

v.预言，预示( foretell的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Are you calling or foretelling? 你是否在召唤或者预言？ 来自互联网
• If the conclusion is right, there will be an important complement for the novel's foretelling ways. 这一结论如果成立，将是对《红楼梦》预示手法的一个重要补充。 来自互联网

7 maturities   

n.成熟（maturity的复数形式）

参考例句：

• Maturities of commercial paper range from three days to nine months. 商业票据的期限从3天到9个月不等。 来自互联网
• German federal government bonds issued with maturities of up to 30 years. 指期限可长达30年的德国联邦政府债券。 来自互联网

8 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 radar   

n.雷达，无线电探测器

参考例句：

• They are following the flight of an aircraft by radar.他们正在用雷达追踪一架飞机的飞行。
• Enemy ships were detected on the radar.敌舰的影像已显现在雷达上。

11 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

12 reliability   

n.可靠性，确实性

参考例句：

• We mustn't presume too much upon the reliability of such sources.我们不应过分指望这类消息来源的可靠性。
• I can assure you of the reliability of the information.我向你保证这消息可靠。

13 inverts   

v.使倒置，使反转( invert的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Inverts the current field dominance of a selected clip. 反转被选择片段的当前场优势。 来自互联网
• DSTINVERT Inverts the destination rectangle. 将目标矩形反色。 来自互联网

14 defer   

vt.推迟，拖延；vi.(to)遵从，听从，服从

参考例句：

• We wish to defer our decision until next week.我们希望推迟到下星期再作出决定。
• We will defer to whatever the committee decides.我们遵从委员会作出的任何决定。

15 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。