美国国家公共电台 NPR U.S. Economy Slows: Trump's 3% Growth Pledge Now In Rearview Mirror

 

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

The U.S. economy is slowing. The Commerce Department says the annual rate of growth went from about 3% last year into about 2% in recent months. Most analysts¹ do not predict calamity², but many do see a trend of slower growth. And that's different from the Trump³ administration's promise of economic boom times. NPR's Chris Arnold reports.

CHRIS ARNOLD, BYLINE⁴: Part of what appears to be happening is that those Republican tax cuts from a year and a half ago, if they were giving the economy a boost, that's wearing off. That wasn't what was supposed to happen, according to President Trump. Here he is talking before boarding an aircraft back in 2017 when he was pushing for those tax cuts.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: The economy now has hit 3%. Nobody thought it would be anywhere close. I think we can go to four, five and maybe even 6% ultimately. Each percentage point is two and a half trillion dollars. We are back. We're really going to start to rock.

ARNOLD: Each percentage point of GDP growth is actually way less than that. That number isn't right. But the promise was clear.

BETSEY STEVENSON: What Donald Trump was talking about there is he believed that the tax cuts would unleash⁵ unprecedented⁶ investment by businesses that would set forth⁷ a stream of growth well into the future.

ARNOLD: That's Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan economist⁸ who was an adviser⁹ in the Obama White House. She says this wave of business investment sparking a new era of remarkable¹⁰ growth, that didn't happen. And in this latest report, spending by businesses actually was particularly weak.

STEVENSON: And that's where the tax cuts have been really disappointing.

ARNOLD: Now, in 2018, the economy did manage about 3% growth. That was better than most of the prior decade, which averaged closer to around 2%. But now, many economists¹¹ say the trend is heading back down, and they're predicting a return to that more ho-hum rate of growth. Now, 2% versus¹² 3% growth, is that even such a big deal?

STEVENSON: Two to 3%, that sounds like, oh, that's just small.

ARNOLD: Stevenson says, though, it's actually a huge difference. Three percent growth is 50% faster than 2% growth, right?

STEVENSON: Fifty percent faster growth.

ARNOLD: I see. So it's like, you know, driving down the freeway at 40 miles an hour or driving at 60. You're getting where you're going a lot quicker.

STEVENSON: Yeah, that's a great analogy. If you look back over 10 years, you're going to be in a very different place if we were growing at 3% than if we were growing at 2%.

ARNOLD: Meaning more money flowing into businesses, which could lift wages, standard of living. But again, that burst of 3% growth appears to be fizzling. Still, all this is not to say that the economy is terrible. In fact, most analysts agree that these latest GDP numbers were reassuring¹³, given all the headwinds - slower growth in Europe, trade fights and tariffs¹⁴. Randy Kroszner is a former governor of the Federal Reserve Board.

RANDY KROSZNER: The GDP report shows that the U.S. economy is growing pretty solidly. There have been lots of concerns that we're about to go off the cliff. No evidence that we're going off the cliff.

ARNOLD: Consumer spending was strong. And even if we are returning to slower growth, Betsey Stevenson says what most people probably care most about is their jobs.

STEVENSON: The labor¹⁵ market is still really strong. Unemployment is low and has been low for a long time. We're starting to see some wage gains. And what's clear is it's a really good time for workers to be finding a job, asking for a raise.

ARNOLD: For his part, President Trump tweeted out, quote, "USA set to zoom¹⁶." That's probably not the word most economists would use, but the economy appears at least to be in pretty good shape. Chris Arnold, NPR News.

1 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

2 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

3 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

6 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

7 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

10 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

13 reassuring   

a.使人消除恐惧和疑虑的，使人放心的

参考例句：

• He gave her a reassuring pat on the shoulder. 他轻拍了一下她的肩膀让她放心。
• With a reassuring pat on her arm, he left. 他鼓励地拍了拍她的手臂就离开了。

14 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

15 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

16 zoom   

n.急速上升；v.突然扩大，急速上升

参考例句：

• The airplane's zoom carried it above the clouds.飞机的陡直上升使它飞到云层之上。
• I live near an airport and the zoom of passing planes can be heard night and day.我住在一个飞机场附近，昼夜都能听到飞机飞过的嗡嗡声。