pbs高端访谈:人才市场复苏,就业形势及收入将如何变化

 　　RAY SUAREZ:Overall, it was the best jobs report since 2009.

　　To help us look at developments big and small behind the numbers, we turn to Diane Swonk, senior managing director and chief economist¹ for Mesirow Financial, a diversified² financial services firm based in Chicago, and Daniel Gross, global business editor and a columnist³ for Newsweek and The Daily Beast.

　　Diane Swonk, what does it tell you that even amidst all the Washington crises and the deadlines and the cliffhangers, job growth remains⁴ solid?

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　　DIANE SWONK, Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc.: Well, it is certainly welcome news to see, particularly the private sector⁵ generating almost 250,000 jobs during the month, and, as you noted⁶ earlier, the increase in jobs in the construction sector, some fall-over on the imprint⁷ of housing there, also on manufacturing and the manufacturing sector.

　　Lumber⁸ production was up, employment, along with construction materials. So you are seeing that spillover of the housing market finally showing signs of healing after being dormant⁹ so long. We're also seeing some of the aftermath of superstorm Sandy in there as well.

　　But I think it's important that we're seeing really more broad-based gains in the private sector than we have seen in the past. And that's encouraging. The problem is, it is amidst all this uncertainty¹⁰. And we have yet to see the other shoe to drop in terms of the cuts in spending, particularly in defense¹¹ and health care going forward.

　　RAY SUAREZ:Dan Gross, again, through all these things, even through the election, even through the aftermath, job growth has remained pretty consistent.

　　DANIEL GROSS, Newsweek/ The Daily Beast Yes.

　　Well, I think the political system in the last year-and-a-half has really vastly overstated its impact on the job market and the economy at large.

　　People thought when we had that debt crisis in Aug. of 2011, that we were going to go into another recession. We didn't.

　　A lot of pundits¹² kept saying, oh, no one is going to hire because there is an election. No one is going to hire because there is a fiscal¹³ cliff. No one is going to hire because of Obamacare. No one is going to hire because of the sequester¹⁴.

　　None of that turns out to be true. When you get rising demand—we have had sustained growth in this economy going on almost four years now. So when more customers show up, you hire people to do the work. Our exports remain at quite high levels. They have bounced back very sharply.

　　And you add what Diane was talking about, the housing market, which is becoming a pretty substantial contributor to economic growth, not just through the hiring of people for construction jobs. But the higher volume of sales is more work for brokers¹⁵ and insurance agents and mortgage brokers and that whole industry.

　　And, of course, rising home prices, which we are getting, makes people feel better and in a better position to consume.

　　RAY SUAREZ:Diane Swonk, behind those two big aggregated¹⁶ numbers, 236,000 and 7.7 percent, the monthly report includes a lot of other data. What would you turn us to, to look at -- to get a bigger picture of the job market overall?

　　DIANE SWONK:Well, again, it gets us to this issue of good, but not good enough.

　　I do agree that the economy is in a recovery, and I think we could be at a turning point where we see more substantial job growth if we don't have some of the cuts that we have hanging out there. That said, I think it's really important to understand the sort of ongoing¹⁷ pain in the economy as well. The 7.7 percent, we got there in part by some—the wrong ways to get there, not the right ways.

　　And that is that people weren't throwing their hat in the ring as much. Participation¹⁸ rates fell. You noted the number of people who gave up, who didn't look for work. The labor¹⁹ force actually shrunk. And what you would like to see for a more sustained recovery—and it might have just been the weather. It could have been anything. Consumers actually said they were more hopeful and optimistic about the job market when they were asked about it in the attitude surveys in the month of February.

　　But they didn't actually put that perception into reality, throw their hat in the ring and actually look for a job. And that's what you really want to see for a more sustained and substantial recovery and one that really brings down the unemployment rate more fundamentally.

　　One of the other issues is the persistence²⁰ of the long-termed unemployed²¹. We have been sort of eroding²² away at that. It's been a sticking point for the last couple months, the number of people that are employed more than 27 weeks. And that's something that the Federal Reserve has brought up as a particular concern to them, because they are worried that those people have been unemployed for so long could become permanently²³ unemployed.

　　RAY SUAREZ:Daniel, along with the low labor force participation rate that Diane mentioned and also the stubbornly high long-term unemployment rate, hourly wages hardly budged²⁴, four cents an hour from the previous report. And it's wages that drive more spending, that drives more employment, doesn't it?

　　DANIEL GROSS:Absolutely.

　　I think on the year wages were up by 2.1 percent. One of the big—it's a story that has been covered, but I don't think with sufficient detail, is that, you know, companies have really distinguished²⁵ themselves in this recovery since 2009 in their ability to increase profits, find new markets, boost their sales and especially boost their profits.

　　Corporate²⁶ profits are really at a record high. They have a record amount of cash on hand. They have been able to do that in part because they're finding new markets in places like China and India. But they have also been able to do that by really sort of beating up on their workers in the sense that they're getting them to work harder, more productively, more hours, do more work without really paying them much more.

　　And over the long—you know, that is a real issue in our economy, because most people, you know, they spend almost all of what they earn. Their ability to enjoy a quality of life and to invest is based on their wages. And we are going to get to a point in this recovery where companies are going to have to sort of give it up.

　　In other words, they're going have to voluntarily pay a little more and make a conscious effort to pay their workers a little more in order to keep giving them the tools to consume a little more.

　　RAY SUAREZ:Diane Swonk, do you agree?

　　DIANE SWONK:I do.

　　And, in fact, I would go a little further on that and say that unfortunately that point in time is not likely to come for some time to come. We still have a lot of excess workers out there looking for work, more workers than we have jobs to employ them. And even though it is whittling²⁷ away at the unemployment rate, really not taking it to down substantially, and that is the real problem.

　　The wage gains that we're seeing, too, there is really unevenness²⁹ within sectors³⁰. Even the health care sector, which has been the star of the labor market for some years now, you're seeing a lot of hiring by lower-wage personnel, technicians replacing higher-wage nurses in some cases.

　　This month, nursing employment did increase, but that wasn't where the bulk of the employment gains were in health care. A lot of it was in lesser³¹-paid, lower-tech people. And what you are seeing is many health care providers, for justifiable³² reasons, because they are being squeezed as well, are trying to squeeze cost out of the system. But it is hurting some of those workers that have been doing so well, like nurses.

　　Some nurses are seeing as much as 20 percent in their pay cut as well, and so all of those things add up to be very uneven²⁸ for the economy and leads to the sort of, you know, we are gaining jobs, which is increasing income after a big drop in the month of January. But we're not gaining wages. So for the individual, it feels like they're sort of spinning their wheels a bit.

　　RAY SUAREZ:You know, when we came out of the deepest part of the trough during the last four years, there would be the occasional good monthly report, and people like you, Diane, and people like you, Dan, would say we're not out of the woods yet.

　　Before we go tonight, what does out of the woods or at least coming out of the woods look like? What should people be looking for, Dan Gross?

　　DANIEL GROSS:Well, I think a few more reports like this—250,000 jobs is pretty good. You annualize that over the course of a year, it's three million.

　　Over the past 12 months, we got two million. And I would actually look, you know, drilling down, we have had the situation the last few years where the private sector adds jobs every month, but the public sector, which is federal, state and local government, cuts them, 10,000 here, 20,000 there. Over the past three years, the public sector has cut 1.1 million jobs.

　　So if government had managed to maintain its employment levels, we would have a much different unemployment rate and a much different jobs picture. We like to think the Europeans are doing austerity, and that's kind of self-destructive. But at the state level, at the local level, and to a lesser degree at the federal level, we have really been having austerity policies in terms of cutting spending by cutting employment.

　　If that finally lifts, if governments are in a position where they are not firing teachers and are hiring construction workers and cops and firefighters again, that would add to the labor growth that we're having, and it wouldn't just be the private sector doing it.

　　RAY SUAREZ:And, Diane, quick final thoughts.

　　DIANE SWONK:Final thought is, I really want to see that participation rate come back. Some of it is because people are aging, but that's not all the reason we have seen the decline in it.

　　You want to see a sign of hope out there. The best sign that the recovery in the labor market is sustainable is that people really believe they can put their hat in the ring and get a job when they are looking for a job.

　　RAY SUAREZ:Diane Swonk and Daniel Gross, thanks for joining us.

　　DANIEL GROSS:Thank you.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Online, economics correspondent Paul Solman breaks down the numbers using his unique measurement of unemployment. That's on our Making Sen$e page.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 diversified   

adj.多样化的，多种经营的v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的过去式和过去分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• The college biology department has diversified by adding new courses in biotechnology. 该学院生物系通过增加生物技术方面的新课程而变得多样化。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Take grain as the key link, develop a diversified economy and ensure an all-round development. 以粮为纲，多种经营，全面发展。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 columnist   

n.专栏作家

参考例句：

• The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
• She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。

4 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

5 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

7 imprint   

n.印痕，痕迹；深刻的印象；vt.压印，牢记

参考例句：

• That dictionary is published under the Longman imprint.那本词典以朗曼公司的名义出版。
• Her speech left its imprint on me.她的演讲给我留下了深刻印象。

8 lumber   

n.木材，木料；v.以破旧东西堆满；伐木；笨重移动

参考例句：

• The truck was sent to carry lumber.卡车被派出去运木材。
• They slapped together a cabin out of old lumber.他们利用旧木料草草地盖起了一间小屋。

9 dormant   

adj.暂停活动的；休眠的；潜伏的

参考例句：

• Many animals are in a dormant state during winter.在冬天许多动物都处于睡眠状态。
• This dormant volcano suddenly fired up.这座休眠火山突然爆发了。

10 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

11 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

12 pundits   

n.某一学科的权威，专家( pundit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The pundits disagree on the best way of dealing with the problem. 如何妥善处理这一问题，专家众说纷纭。 来自辞典例句
• That did not stop Chinese pundits from making a fuss over it. 这并没有阻止中国的博学之士对此大惊小怪。 来自互联网

13 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

14 sequester   

vt.使退隐，使隔绝

参考例句：

• Everything he owned was sequestered.他的所有财产都被扣押了。
• This jury is expected to be sequestered for at least two months.预计这个陪审团将至少被隔离两个月。

15 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

16 aggregated   

a.聚合的，合计的

参考例句：

• He aggregated her to a political party. 他吸收她参加一政党。
• The audiences aggregated a million people. 观众总数达100万人。

17 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

18 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

19 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

20 persistence   

n.坚持，持续，存留

参考例句：

• The persistence of a cough in his daughter puzzled him.他女儿持续的咳嗽把他难住了。
• He achieved success through dogged persistence.他靠着坚持不懈取得了成功。

21 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

22 eroding   

侵蚀，腐蚀( erode的现在分词 )； 逐渐毁坏，削弱，损害

参考例句：

• The coast is slowly eroding. 海岸正慢慢地被侵蚀。
• Another new development is eroding the age-old stereotype of the male warrior. 另一个新现象是，久已形成的男人皆武士的形象正逐渐消失。

23 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

24 budged   

v.（使）稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）改变主意，（使）让步

参考例句：

• Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动，他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
• Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句

25 distinguished   

adj.卓越的，杰出的，著名的

参考例句：

• Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
• A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。

26 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

27 whittling   

v.切，削（木头），使逐渐变小( whittle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Inflation has been whittling away their savings. 通货膨胀使他们的积蓄不断减少。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He is whittling down the branch with a knife to make a handle for his hoe. 他在用刀削树枝做一把锄头柄。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 uneven   

adj.不平坦的，不规则的，不均匀的

参考例句：

• The sidewalk is very uneven—be careful where you walk.这人行道凹凸不平—走路时请小心。
• The country was noted for its uneven distribution of land resources.这个国家以土地资源分布不均匀出名。

29 unevenness   

n. 不平坦，不平衡，不匀性

参考例句：

• This unevenness comes about because topics are developed in a logical order. 所以出现这种不平衡，是因为课题是按逻辑顺序展开的。
• I sanded the corners to take away any unevenness in the joints. 我用砂纸磨边边角角的地方，去除接头处的不均。

30 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

31 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

32 justifiable   

adj.有理由的，无可非议的

参考例句：

• What he has done is hardly justifiable.他的所作所为说不过去。
• Justifiable defense is the act being exempted from crimes.正当防卫不属于犯罪行为。