PBS高端访谈:十月的就业报告仍显示经济利好

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: This month's jobs report was the first one since the government shutdown that captured some of its wider impact. It also came one day after a government report found stronger-than-expected growthin the U.S. economy just before the shutdown.

　　NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman puts some perspective on the latest data, part of his ongoingcoverage on Making Sense of financial news.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: It was a tale of two jobs reports. Employers added 204,000 jobs in October, yet the unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent. How could both happen? Well, first, unemployment is based on a survey of households, the jobs number, on a separate sample of employers, the so- called establishment survey.

　　MICHAEL STRAIN, American Enterprise Institute: The fact that the data come from two different surveys means that it's natural that from time to time you are going to see them telling different stories.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: And surveys, of course, have margins¹ of error. So, any conclusion, we asked Michael Strain of the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

　　MICHAEL STRAIN: There is a tepid² recovery; we are adding jobs, but we're not adding enough jobs. Unemployment rate is -- The unemployment rate is doing OK, but it's not falling nearly fast enough. And we have alot of work left to do before the labor³ market is healed.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Dean Baker⁴ is, if you will pardon us, top dog at the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research. Never trust any one month's numbers, he says, but while not the best of times, October certainly wasn't the worst. In fact:

　　DEAN BAKER, Center for Economic and Policy Research: Over 200,000 jobs being created in October, I think more -- more than I expected, more than most economists⁵ expected, and upward revisions for the priortwo months. So we're averaging over 200,000 the last three months, which is better than what we have seen.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Actually, the 16-day shutdown delayed the jobs report by a week, which, Strain says, warped⁶ the final numbers.

　　MICHAEL STRAIN: The household survey asked households for their employment status during the week that contains the 12th the month. Collection usually begins immediately thereafter. In this case, the governmentwas shut down, so collection efforts were delayed by a week. So you're asking households to remember what they were doing two weeks ago, as opposed to remember what they were doing one week ago.

　　And while that may seem like a minor⁷ change to a lot of people, evidence shows that changes like that can actually have a big impact on the quality of the data.

　　PROTESTER: End the shutdown!

　　PROTESTERS: End the shutdown!

　　PAUL SOLMAN: What's more, explains Baker, temporarily furloughed federal workers were counted as unemployed⁸ in the household survey, since, technically⁹, they weren't working. That hurt the unemployment rate.

　　DEAN BAKER: So the household survey showed a drop in employment, in government employment of about 450,000. So, these are people that were employed by the federal government, presuming mostly employed by the federal government. They're on furlough. They don't -- they're asked, were you working the week of the 12th? Answer, no.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But when it came to the establishment survey, government agencies reported these workers didhave jobs. Regardless, the private sector¹⁰ added far more jobs than expected, even during the shutdown.

　　DEAN BAKER: I was actually surprised. It's hard-pressed to find any evidence of the shutdown in the sectors¹¹ I was looking to. I was looking at places like restaurants, hotels, because I was expecting that you had areas -- the national parks were closed, here in D.C., a lot of the tourist sites. People -- if you wereplanning a trip to D.C., I assume a lot of people canceled.

　　So, I would have expected that there would be some falloff there. In fact, there was very rapid growth, over 50,000 jobs in that amusement-entertainment sector of the economy. So, you're really hard-pressed to find the evidence of the shutdown in the establishment survey.

　　(APPLAUSE)

　　PAUL SOLMAN: During a speech today at the Port of New Orleans, President Obama offered his own framing ofthe report.

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: We added about 200,000 new jobs last month. But there is no question that the shutdown harmed our jobs market. The unemployment rate still ticked up, and we don't yet know all the data for this -- this final quarter of the year. But it could be down because of what happened in Washington.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: The White House's estimate of the shutdown's cost: more than $2 billion in back pay and lots of lost productivity.

　　And, says Michael Strain, the shutdown means the data are even less certain than usual.

　　MICHAEL STRAIN: But I would expect that next month's to be much more reliable than this month's.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: The never-ending story will pick up again on December 6.

1 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

2 tepid   

adj.微温的，温热的，不太热心的

参考例句：

• She bent her mouth to the tap and drank the tepid water.她把嘴伸到水龙头底下去喝那微温的水。
• Her feet firmly planted on the tepid rough brick of the floor.她一双脚稳固地立在微温而粗糙的砖地上。

3 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

4 baker   

n.面包师

参考例句：

• The baker bakes his bread in the bakery.面包师在面包房内烤面包。
• The baker frosted the cake with a mixture of sugar and whites of eggs.面包师在蛋糕上撒了一层白糖和蛋清的混合料。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 warped   

adj.反常的；乖戾的；（变）弯曲的；变形的v.弄弯，变歪( warp的过去式和过去分词 )；使（行为等）不合情理，使乖戾，

参考例句：

• a warped sense of humour 畸形的幽默感
• The board has warped. 木板翘了。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

8 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

9 technically   

adv.专门地，技术上地

参考例句：

• Technically it is the most advanced equipment ever.从技术上说，这是最先进的设备。
• The tomato is technically a fruit,although it is eaten as a vegetable.严格地说，西红柿是一种水果，尽管它是当作蔬菜吃的。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》