PBS高端访谈:在新的政策下,中国家庭会选择二胎么?

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Joining me now to discuss the change is Mei Fong, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist with over a decade of experience covering Asia. She's the author of the upcoming book "One Child: The Story of China's Most Radical¹ Experiment."Mei Fong, welcome to the program.

　　So, just how significant a shift in policy is this for China's communist leadership?

　　MEI FONG, "One Child": Well, your segment mentioned too little too late, and that's really kind of what it is.

　　For the past 15 years now, a lot of experts of demographics, economists², demographers³, have been asking for this change to happen. They have all warned of the aging tsunami⁴ that's going to happen. They have warned of the gender⁵ imbalances. But the Chinese government has been very, very slow to change it, so actually the question is not why it happened now, but why has it taken so long to happen.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, why do you think they decided⁶ now? I mean, we heard some of the reasons there, but what — what do you think has led them to do this right now?

　　MEI FONG: Well, it's a looming⁷ crisis that's affecting the economic growth of the future.

　　Right now, there are about five working adults to support one retiree in China. That's a pretty good ratio. But in 20 years' time, that's going to be 1.6 working adults to one elderly retiree. That's a huge difference. And there's not going to be enough people to pay in for all these pension imbalances and support an aging population that, if it were its own country, would be the third largest country in the world after China and India.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: How representative, Mei Fong, is the story we just saw of that family? They had two daughters. And one of the daughters is basically a non-person.

　　MEI FONG: They call them heihaizi, black children, because they don't exist. They're non-people.

　　There are about, estimated, between 13 to 15 million of these children that — not necessarily children. Now some of them are adults. But for all intents and purposes, they just don't exist in China. They can't register to buy a house. They can't go to school.

　　That girl that she interviewed, I spoke⁸ to her. Her name is Sno. She is 20 years old. She's never been to school. She can't even get so much as a library card, because she has no registration⁹ rights.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Will the government now make some sort of attempt to redress¹⁰ that because they're changing the policy?

　　MEI FONG: It's really difficult, because one of the big issues that they fear is places like Beijing and Shanghai. Beijing and Shanghai already have something like 18 to 20 million people, city residents.

　　They are very afraid of changing the household registration to enable everybody to have those rights, because they fear this flood of people and there won't be enough resources to service 20 million people in the city.

　　So it's going to be very thorny¹¹. A lot of people have actually been suing to have these rights. This girl, for example, she has been spending the last three to four years fruitlessly trying to sue the government to give her those rights, which legally she's entitled to, but she's still not able to get it.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: What difference is it thought this is going to make in China's — in the decisions families make? I mean, is it thought that many families will now decide to have a second child?

　　MEI FONG: It's doubtful. Here's the thing.

　　Every country that's tried to put in place population controls have found it much more easier to turn off the baby tap, but when it comes time to turn on the baby tap, there's been virtually no country that's been able to succeed.

　　Singapore, for example, which China has emulated¹² for many things, Singapore tried to do something like this, although with a much less onerous¹³ kind of population planning policy. And now Singapore is saying, please, please, have more children. And the Singaporean women don't and can't and won't.

　　And I think China will face similar problems. You know, right now — a couple years ago, they loosened the policy a little bit, but they found the take-up amongst people who are eligible¹⁴ to have the second child was very, very low. And I think this will be more of the same.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we will certainly see.

　　Mei Fong, who is coming out with a new book, China's one-child policy, we thank you.

　　MEI FONG: Thank you.

 

1 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网

4 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

5 gender   

n.（生理上的）性，（名词、代词等的）性

参考例句：

• French differs from English in having gender for all nouns.法语不同于英语，所有的名词都有性。
• Women are sometimes denied opportunities solely because of their gender.妇女有时仅仅因为性别而无法获得种种机会。

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 registration   

n.登记，注册，挂号

参考例句：

• Marriage without registration is not recognized by law.法律不承认未登记的婚姻。
• What's your registration number?你挂的是几号？

10 redress   

n.赔偿，救济，矫正；v.纠正，匡正，革除

参考例句：

• He did all that he possibly could to redress the wrongs.他尽了一切努力革除弊端。
• Any man deserves redress if he has been injured unfairly.任何人若蒙受不公平的损害都应获得赔偿。

11 thorny   

adj.多刺的，棘手的

参考例句：

• The young captain is pondering over a thorny problem.年轻的上尉正在思考一个棘手的问题。
• The boys argued over the thorny points in the lesson.孩子们辩论功课中的难点。

12 emulated   

v.与…竞争( emulate的过去式和过去分词 )；努力赶上；计算机程序等仿真；模仿

参考例句：

• The havoc that months had previously wrought was now emulated by the inroads of hours. 前几个月已经使他垮下来，如今更是一小时一小时地在恶化。 来自辞典例句
• The key technology emulated by CAD and the circuit is showed. 对关键技术进行了仿真，给出了电路实现形式。 来自互联网

13 onerous   

adj.繁重的

参考例句：

• My household duties were not particularly onerous.我的家务活并不繁重。
• This obligation sometimes proves onerous.这一义务有时被证明是艰巨的。

14 eligible   

adj.有条件被选中的；(尤指婚姻等)合适(意)的

参考例句：

• He is an eligible young man.他是一个合格的年轻人。
• Helen married an eligible bachelor.海伦嫁给了一个中意的单身汉。