商业报道:雪灾的经济影响

China's economic worries

CNN's Stephen Frazier asks Dong Tao of Credit Suisse what ecomonic impact the winter storms will have on China.

I think in general, the industrial production and agricultural productions are most affected¹ by this. Among all of these things, I think the industrial production probably would recover once the bad weather is over. But I think the agricultural production will be affected and the summer crops in China probably will see a significant damage, given that one tenth of the Chinese farming land were affected by this snow storm.

One tenth of the farming land, I mean, think of the acreage there, and we are also getting reports that it’s not just the crops out in the open, that greenhouses are collapsing² and that smaller barns are buckling³ under the weight of the snow. This is in areas that don’t normally see this kind of weather, isn’t it?

Well, this is not the biggest snow-storm in China, but definitely this is the worst snowstorms in China’s modern history. The reason is that the snowstorms came to southern China, south of Yangtze River area. These areas rarely see any snow and this time we are seeing about 20-60 centimeters of snow coming in, in couple of er, weeks. And the situation is still developing, uh, this might not be the end yet.

What do you think this will mean for the price of food then, especially for vegetable crops, for example?

There are two elements of that. One is the short-term. When the bad weather comes, the food prices go up. We’ve already seen about 7-10 percent of food prices going up in many cities in China. But that’s kind of bad weather induced. The other part of that will be the long-term. In the air with that because of the food supply will be damaged at least for this year so that the food prices which has been a major factor behind China’s inflation will continue to go up. This will add a lot of pressure to the Chinese government and this also might have some implications to the global grain market.

Let’s talk briefly⁴. We are almost out of time about the implications for the economy as a whole. I mean, China has been on a thirty-year reform program to make it this export power house. But it’s really very fragile in some ways and this is another example highlighting that. I can remember the diesel⁵ fuel shortages just a few months ago that pointed⁶ that out. But this seems to be even more dramatic.

Well, bad weather happens here and there. And that alone doesn’t probably, probably doesn’t have anything to do with China’s reform process. So when we have the hurricane in the US, we probably have the similar kind of impact. Whereas this matters is the Chinese economy is in overheating situation, the government's trying to hit the brake. And now with the inflation going up, food supply going down and power shortages, these things could affect the Chinese decision-makers' mindset.

Notes:

Barn: A large farm building used for storing farm products and sheltering livestock⁷.

Buckle⁸: To cause to bend, warp⁹, or crumple¹⁰.

1 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

2 collapsing   

压扁[平]，毁坏，断裂

参考例句：

• Rescuers used props to stop the roof of the tunnel collapsing. 救援人员用支柱防止隧道顶塌陷。
• The rocks were folded by collapsing into the center of the trough. 岩石由于坍陷进入凹槽的中心而发生褶皱。

3 buckling   

扣住

参考例句：

• A door slammed in the house and a man came out buckling his belt. 房子里的一扇门砰地关上，一个男子边扣腰带边走了出来。
• The periodic buckling leaves the fibre in a waved conformation. 周期性的弯折在纤维中造成波形构成。

4 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

5 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

6 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

7 livestock   

n.家畜，牲畜

参考例句：

• Both men and livestock are flourishing.人畜两旺。
• The heavy rains and flooding killed scores of livestock.暴雨和大水淹死了许多牲口。

8 buckle   

n.扣子，带扣；v.把...扣住，由于压力而弯曲

参考例句：

• The two ends buckle at the back.带子两端在背后扣起来。
• She found it hard to buckle down.她很难专心做一件事情。

9 warp   

vt.弄歪，使翘曲，使不正常，歪曲，使有偏见

参考例句：

• The damp wood began to warp.这块潮湿的木材有些翘曲了。
• A steel girder may warp in a fire.钢梁遇火会变弯。

10 crumple   

v.把...弄皱，满是皱痕，压碎，崩溃

参考例句：

• Take care not to crumple your dress by packing it carelessly.当心不要因收放粗心压纵你的衣服。
• The wall was likely to crumple up at any time.墙随时可能坍掉。