托福听力短文 II-02-1

(MA) Now, you've been reading articles about the tremendous damage done to life and property by earthquakes. That's why seismologists have been working so hard to develop methods of earthquake prediction. We can now predict earthquake [assertively] fairly well, but the predictions only locate potential areas of danger. They don't predict the specific time and location at which an earthquake is likely to occur. Today I want to introduce to you three prediction models that have been developed.

The first prediction model looks along earthquake fawlts, those cracks in the Earth's crust, to find what are known as seismic¹ gaps. Seismic gaps are places where the fault has shown little or no seismic activity for a long time. This theory postulates² that such places are due for a major shock.

The second model relies on phenomena³ --- like ground flit. Using long cylindrical⁴ tubes containing water, observers noted⁵ that ground tilt⁶ tended to occur before major earthquakes. That led them to correctly predict the big Haicheng [HI CHUNG] quake of 1975 --- the first successful earthquake prediction scientists have ever made. A million people were evacuated⁷ from that Chinese city before the earthquake struck. Unfortunately, this method hasn't worked consistently, so we can't say it's been perfected.

The third model is based on the theory that major earthquakes closely follow a series of minor⁸ ones. Starting with the measurements and timing⁹ of the smaller quakes, a complex formula calculates the "times of increased probability" of a much larger quake. Right now, this method, like the first method, cannot predict specific times and places, but that may change as it is further developed.

For the moment, none of these models can predict with reasonable levels of confidence.

1 seismic   

a.地震的，地震强度的

参考例句：

• Earthquakes produce two types of seismic waves.地震产生两种地震波。
• The latest seismic activity was also felt in northern Kenya.肯尼亚北部也感觉到了最近的地震活动。

2 postulates   

v.假定，假设( postulate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They proclaimed to be eternal postulates of reason and justice. 他们宣称这些原则是理性和正义的永恒的要求。 来自辞典例句
• The school building programme postulates an increase in educational investment. 修建校舍的计画是在增加教育经费的前提下拟定的。 来自辞典例句

3 phenomena   

n.现象

参考例句：

• Ade couldn't relate the phenomena with any theory he knew.艾德无法用他所知道的任何理论来解释这种现象。
• The object of these experiments was to find the connection,if any,between the two phenomena.这些实验的目的就是探索这两种现象之间的联系，如果存在着任何联系的话。

4 cylindrical   

adj.圆筒形的

参考例句：

• huge cylindrical gas tanks 巨大的圆柱形贮气罐
• Beer cans are cylindrical. 啤酒罐子是圆筒形的。

5 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

6 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

7 evacuated   

撤退者的

参考例句：

• Police evacuated nearby buildings. 警方已将附近大楼的居民疏散。
• The fireman evacuated the guests from the burning hotel. 消防队员把客人们从燃烧着的旅馆中撤出来。

8 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

9 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。