万花筒 2013-07-12&07-16 金价下跌何时休？

 Gold is up more than one percent, doesn't sound so much, but xxx the best session in seven, so is it finally finding a base?  Bernard Dahda, who is the precious metal analyst¹ of xx Texas. 

Dahda, thanks for joining us. As I said, gold is finding some support here, but you think it's going to be short lived. 

Yes, basically I don't think we are gonna see again the rebound² we saw back in April when the gold price dropped on the back of the Cyprus story, fear that the Europe central bank, the rest of Europe, the Brussels central bank and rest of the Europe will be selling. Initially³ went down and the price rebounded⁴ because of the strong retail⁵ demand. We saw the premiums⁶ in countries like Singapore and China more than doubling, in Dubai and in Turkey. But soon after the prices went back down. I think what's happened is that when the retail demand the money already bought in April, I think, also they've burned their finger once already. I am not sure they are as keen to go back into the market . 

So maybe they are waiting for the prices to go back low before coming back in. Or to be stabilized⁷, go more sideways, just to see there is less volatilities maybe in the market. 

But there is always a retail demand, it is not as if evaporated, like, for example, the investment demand seems to be driving up. 

Yes the investment demand is dropping quite a bit. I mean in 2012 the investment demand was 3200 tons, this was equivalent of 29% of total demand for gold. So far this year, I think, we've seen a big freeze. Not only that , this investment demand is turning into source of supply. We seen that since mid⁸ February the supply from gold, the ECB xx product, physically⁹ backed ones, has dropped by 650 tons, this equivalent of adding 11%,  13%, excuse me, to the total supply of the gold. So there is a imbalance now in the supply demand equation.

That's bound to drive low of course. 

The is driving the price of gold lower. 

You think gold is going lower still a thousand dollar lower by the end of the year. 

That will not be very surprising, I mean. As I mentioned earlier this supply demand imbalance. As the gold price goes down, we have what we call it an automatic stabilizers. So the price of the gold goes down, yes we have higher demand for jewelry¹⁰. yes we have a lower scrap¹¹ supply. But nevertheless, I don't that is going to be enough because of the strong overflow¹² from the investment demand. What's gonna to happen is we will go down the supply curve, we'll go down all the way to balance this equation, is where the miners are gonna have to reduce the amount of gold they are mining, new mining output. We will not be surprised to see this around lowest case scenario¹³ 850 to 1,000. We need to reduce the mining supply by 20% to re-equilibrate the supply demand equation. 

So your base case is a 1000 dollar lower by the end of the year, but you think it could go as low as to 800. 

That's like our really worst case scenario. 

So what chance is, what's the likelihood of that?

If we continue to see this strong investment demand, this investment supply, more ECB demand outflow. If we get even better news from the US in terms of re-established strong stabilizing¹⁴ from the Feds, and maybe some improvement from the Europe, that would the drive of gold price lower. 

1000 dollar lower, that is quite the number. 

Yeah. It is, I suppose. But, I mean, we're still putting a close, watching, a close eye on the US and the quantitative¹⁵ easing. This sounds like this stabilizing is going to, leading to a high interest rates. High interest rates are strengthening the dollar, which is a very bad news for gold. It also gives, increased costs to hold the gold. So why would you want to hold the gold which gives you zero yield, which actually cost you money to store it, while actually you can put your money if interests go higher, in the bank to earn interest on it. 

Okay thanks, that's Bernard DaDah from Texas. 

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

3 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

4 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

5 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

6 premiums   

n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价

参考例句：

• He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 stabilized   

v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
• His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

8 mid   

adj.中央的，中间的

参考例句：

• Our mid-term exam is pending.我们就要期中考试了。
• He switched over to teaching in mid-career.他在而立之年转入教学工作。

9 physically   

adj.物质上，体格上，身体上，按自然规律

参考例句：

• He was out of sorts physically,as well as disordered mentally.他浑身不舒服，心绪也很乱。
• Every time I think about it I feel physically sick.一想起那件事我就感到极恶心。

10 jewelry   

n.（jewllery）（总称）珠宝

参考例句：

• The burglars walked off with all my jewelry.夜盗偷走了我的全部珠宝。
• Jewelry and lace are mostly feminine belongings.珠宝和花边多数是女性用品。

11 scrap   

n.碎片；废料；v.废弃，报废

参考例句：

• A man comes round regularly collecting scrap.有个男人定时来收废品。
• Sell that car for scrap.把那辆汽车当残品卖了吧。

12 overflow   

v.(使)外溢，(使)溢出；溢出，流出，漫出

参考例句：

• The overflow from the bath ran on to the floor.浴缸里的水溢到了地板上。
• After a long period of rain,the river may overflow its banks.长时间的下雨天后，河水可能溢出岸来。

13 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

14 stabilizing   

n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The disulfide bridges might then be viewed primarily as stabilizing components. 二硫桥可以被看作是初级的稳定因素。 来自辞典例句
• These stabilizing design changes are usually not desirable for steady-state operation. 这些增加稳定性的设计改变通常不太符合稳态工作的要求。 来自辞典例句

15 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。