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电动汽车是否将迎来iPhone时刻?

时间:2016-05-24 23:57来源:互联网 提供网友:mapleleaf   字体: [ ]
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 Is the electric car market about to have its iPhone moment

电动汽车市场是否即将迎来iPhone时刻?
Elon Muskclearly thinks so. The chief executive of Tesla Motors has never been shy when it comes to bragging2 about the wonders of his company’s vehicles. But based on his extravagantly3 ambitious new production plans, he has decided4 that a definitive5 moment is at hand that could turn the global car industry on its head.
埃隆?马斯克(Elon Musk1)显然认为答案是肯定的。这位特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)的首席执行官在夸耀其公司汽车的美妙时从来不会保守。但基于雄心勃勃的新的生产计划,他认为一个决定性的时刻即将到来,有望颠覆全球汽车产业。
电动汽车是否将迎来iPhone时刻?
The Apple-like lines outside Tesla sales outlets6 at the end of March were a clue. That prospective7 customers would queue for hours to put down a $1,000 deposit on a car they had not even seen — and which most of them would not be able to actually buy for more than two years — is testament8 to Mr Musk’s ability to whip up excitement in a way that no one has done since the late Steve Jobs.
3月底,特斯拉销售门店外排起的队伍犹如苹果(Apple)门店那么长,那就是一个线索。这些潜在客户愿意排好几个小时的队,为一款他们甚至还未见到的汽车支付1000美元定金(其中多数人要等上两年多才能真正买到手),这证明了马斯克有本事煽动人们的兴奋心情,自史蒂夫?乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世以来,还没有别的人做得到这一点。
If all those pre-orders turn into sales (a big “if”, since the deposits are refundable) Tesla will bank $14bn in revenues. As the company has already taken to boasting, that will make the debut9 of its new Model 3 the biggest consumer product launch of all time. Even the iPhone did not get to that kind of scale until its third full year of sales.
如果所有这些预购转化成销售额的话(这里存在一个大大的问号,因为定金是可以返还的),特斯拉将斩获140亿美元的营收。(鉴于该公司喜欢夸耀,)那将令新款Model 3的亮相成为史上最大的消费者产品发布。即便是iPhone也是在问世第三年才达到这种规模的。
Based on this, Mr Musk has decided to go for broke. Tesla’s goal of hitting a production target of 500,000 by 2020 — nearly 10 times its 2015 deliveries — always looked a stretch. Now he plans to hit that output by 2018. And his new 2020 target? A cool 1m. At $35,000, but with the sizzle of the Tesla brand and incorporating many of the features of the far more expensive Model S, Mr Musk has decided the 3 represents a breakthrough moment.
基于这点,马斯克决定放手一搏。特斯拉原来的目标是到2020年实现50万辆的产量目标(那是该公司2015年发货量的近10倍),这个目标本来就看起来勉强。现在他计划到2018年就实现这一产量目标。他为2020年设定的新目标?100万辆。Model 3售价3.5万美元,借助特斯拉品牌的热度,再加上纳入了昂贵得多的Model S的很多功能,马斯克认为,Model 3代表着一个突破时刻。
So what is the risk that other disrupters from the tech industry, who have also been circling the automobile10 world, will crash this electric car party?
那么,科技行业的其他颠覆者(它们也在对汽车行业虎视眈眈)是否有可能闯入这场电动汽车派对?
Mr Musk had a succinct11 answer, when asked about that on his company’s quarterly earnings12 call earlier this week: Apple and Google do not make things. They have been circling the automobile world for a while, but have yet to find a way in — though a deal with Fiat13 this week to make 100 self-driving minivans at least represents a toe in the door for Alphabet, Google’s parent, as it tries to put its self-driving technology on the road.
在最近特斯拉的季度财报电话会议上被问及这个问题时,马斯克的回答简明扼要:苹果和谷歌(Google)不从事生产。它们觊觎汽车行业已有一段时间了,但尚未找到突破口,不过最近谷歌与菲亚特(Fiat)的协议(生产100辆无人驾驶小型货车)至少代表着谷歌母公司Alphabet已经有一只脚踏了进来,试图将其无人驾驶技术投入实用。
“Making things” turns out to be a key point here. Contract manufacturers exist in the car business, but there is no global supply chain to dial up instantly, as Apple has been able to do so masterfully with its gadgets14. There is not enough battery capacity in the world to support a mass electric car market. Only Mr Musk will have that — provided he can meet his own goals for Tesla’s “gigafactory”, being constructed in Nevada to support his car plans.
“生产产品”是这里的关键。代工制造商在汽车行业是存在的,但没有一个现成的全球供应链,就像苹果一直能够赖以制造其产品的供应链那样。全球没有足够的电池产能来支撑庞大的电动汽车市场。只有马斯克会拥有这样的产能——如果他能够实现特斯拉的“超级工厂”这个目标,该厂正在内华达修建,将为他的汽车计划提供支持。
Of course, Tesla itself has also yet to prove that it can handle the challenging task of scaling up production to meet the kind of demand Mr Musk dreams of. It has not even been able to hit much lower levels of production for its existing vehicles. 
当然,特斯拉自己还尚未证明,它能够应对扩大产量的挑战,以满足马斯克梦想的那种需求。它甚至尚未达到现有车型的低得多的产量水平。
Mr Musk has blamed production glitches15 with the X on hubris16 — a quality his company has never been short of. Compared to the overambitious SUV crossover vehicle, the 3 has been designed with ease of production in mind, he promises.
马斯克将Model X的生产问题归咎于狂妄——他的公司的确从来不缺这种特质。他承诺,与过于雄心勃勃的SUV跨界汽车相比,Model 3在设计时就考虑到了生产方便。
Even with all this, there is the not inconsequential question of demand. The electric car market has seen many false dawns, though it may finally be turning a corner. Last year sales rose above 500,000, an increase of 70 per cent.
即便如此,还有一个绝非无关紧要的需求问题。尽管最终可能会打开局面,但电动汽车市场出现过多次虚假黎明。去年,电动汽车销量突破50万辆,增长70%。
To imagine that Tesla can match this entire global market single-handedly by 2018 takes a giant leap of faith.
想象特斯拉一家公司到2018年就能达到整个全球市场的规模,那是需要极大信心的。
Mr Musk, though, has concluded that his is the only company that has a shot, and the Model 3 is the car with which to do it.
然而,马斯克得出的结论是,他的公司是唯一有机会脱颖而出的电动汽车制造商,而Model 3就是取得这种突破的那款汽车。
If he is right, comparisons with the iPhone will not be out of place. Like electric cars, smartphones went through many false dawns before Apple broke the market open. To produce a winning formula took a convergence of technology trends — the falling costs of processing power, increasing mobile bandwidth — along with innovations like multi-touch screens and the right packaging. The electric car industry has been waiting for a similar moment.
如果他说对了,把这款汽车与iPhone相提并论并非离谱。与电动汽车一样,在苹果打开市场之前,智能手机也经历过很多虚假黎明。要拿出制胜配方,需要各种科技趋势融合:处理能力成本下滑、移动带宽扩大,以及多点触控屏等创新和正确的包装。电动汽车行业等待着类似时刻的到来。
Mr Musk’s electric car dream always looked like one of the most audacious of technology bets. This week, the stakes got much higher.
马斯克的电动汽车梦本来就看上去像是最冒险的科技赌注之一。最近他进一步加大了赌注。

点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 musk v6pzO     
n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物,香猫
参考例句:
  • Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
  • She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。
2 bragging 4a422247fd139463c12f66057bbcffdf     
v.自夸,吹嘘( brag的现在分词 );大话
参考例句:
  • He's always bragging about his prowess as a cricketer. 他总是吹嘘自己板球水平高超。 来自辞典例句
  • Now you're bragging, darling. You know you don't need to brag. 这就是夸口,亲爱的。你明知道你不必吹。 来自辞典例句
3 extravagantly fcd90b89353afbdf23010caed26441f0     
adv.挥霍无度地
参考例句:
  • The Monroes continued to entertain extravagantly. 门罗一家继续大宴宾客。 来自辞典例句
  • New Grange is one of the most extravagantly decorated prehistoric tombs. 新格兰奇是装饰最豪华的史前陵墓之一。 来自辞典例句
4 decided lvqzZd     
adj.决定了的,坚决的;明显的,明确的
参考例句:
  • This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
  • There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。
5 definitive YxSxF     
adj.确切的,权威性的;最后的,决定性的
参考例句:
  • This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
  • No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样,还没有人给出明确的答复。
6 outlets a899f2669c499f26df428cf3d18a06c3     
n.出口( outlet的名词复数 );经销店;插座;廉价经销店
参考例句:
  • The dumping of foreign cotton blocked outlets for locally grown cotton. 外国棉花的倾销阻滞了当地生产的棉花的销路。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • They must find outlets for their products. 他们必须为自己的产品寻找出路。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
7 prospective oR7xB     
adj.预期的,未来的,前瞻性的
参考例句:
  • The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
  • They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。
8 testament yyEzf     
n.遗嘱;证明
参考例句:
  • This is his last will and testament.这是他的遗愿和遗嘱。
  • It is a testament to the power of political mythology.这说明,编造政治神话可以产生多大的威力。
9 debut IxGxy     
n.首次演出,初次露面
参考例句:
  • That same year he made his Broadway debut, playing a suave radio journalist.在那同一年里,他初次在百老汇登台,扮演一个温文而雅的电台记者。
  • The actress made her debut in the new comedy.这位演员在那出新喜剧中首次登台演出。
10 automobile rP1yv     
n.汽车,机动车
参考例句:
  • He is repairing the brake lever of an automobile.他正在修理汽车的刹车杆。
  • The automobile slowed down to go around the curves in the road.汽车在路上转弯时放慢了速度。
11 succinct YHozq     
adj.简明的,简洁的
参考例句:
  • The last paragraph is a succinct summary.最后这段话概括性很强。
  • A succinct style lends vigour to writing.措辞简练使文笔有力。
12 earnings rrWxJ     
n.工资收人;利润,利益,所得
参考例句:
  • That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
  • Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。
13 fiat EkYx2     
n.命令,法令,批准;vt.批准,颁布
参考例句:
  • The opening of a market stall is governed by municipal fiat.开设市场摊位受市政法令管制。
  • He has tried to impose solutions to the country's problems by fiat.他试图下令强行解决该国的问题。
14 gadgets 7239f3f3f78d7b7d8bbb906e62f300b4     
n.小机械,小器具( gadget的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Certainly. The idea is not to have a house full of gadgets. 当然。设想是房屋不再充满小配件。 来自超越目标英语 第4册
  • This meant more gadgets and more experiments. 这意味着要设计出更多的装置,做更多的实验。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
15 glitches 31481b5bf9faeb6896293dd2946b8104     
n.小过失,差错( glitch的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Manufacturing glitches have limited the factory's output. 生产中的故障影响了该厂的产量。 来自辞典例句
  • Another kind of period variation,\"Glitches,\" are seen in several pulsars. 在几个脉冲星中还看到了周期的另一种变化,即“自转突快”现象。 来自辞典例句
16 hubris 8y8y0     
n.傲慢,骄傲
参考例句:
  • There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。
  • The very hubris of French claims alarmed the other powers.法国贪婪的胃口使其他大国惊恐不安。
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