2005年NPR美国国家公共电台九月-Tracing a Hurricane at the National Hurri

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When a hurricane heads toward¹ the US coastline, all eyes turn to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It’s the official source for information on how powerful a hurricane is, where it’s heading and when it will hit. Emergency planners depend on the center to decide where to order an evacuation. If the forecasters there get it wrong people may die. NPR’s John Hamilton has been reporting from the center for the past few days. He filed this report on the events there in the final hours before Rita struck the Gulf² Coast this morning.

The Hurricane Center works³ in six-hour’s cycles. The crucial⁴ cycle for Hurricane Rita begins at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. Ed Rappaport/ is the center’s deputy⁵ director, by that time he has already been at the center for nearly 12 hours.

We aren't over time yet.

As Rita gets closer to land, one of Rappaport’s jobs is to make hourly statements to the media.

Good afternoon. This is the 5 p.m. Eastern Time Update on Hurricane Rita, also corresponds⁶ to 4 p.m. Central Time. Rita remains⁷ a very dangerous hurricane still category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum winds remain at 125 miles per hour.

Each forecasting cycle begins with data. These days a lot of it comes from small radio transmitters dropped by airplanes into the hurricane itself. They report their speed and direction as they fall. Tiny changes in these readings can signal that the storm is changing its path or intensity⁸. So far Rita has been heading straight for the Texas-Louisiana border. But sometime after 6 p.m. Rappaport tells the reporter he is worried that could change and expose major cities to a storm surge⁹ of 15 feet or more.

The problem we have of course is that these tracks can shift¹⁰ a little bit left or right. If it goes to west by 50 miles, we would then push that strong surge into the Galveston, Galveston Bay Huston area.

By 7 p.m. Rappaport has turned over media briefings to Max Mayfield, the Hurricane Center's director. Mayfield warns people to stay clear of Rita’s path. But he also lets them know that things won’t be as bad as they have been in New Orleans.

If there is any good news here, it’s a, it’s not as strong as Katrina and it’s not as large as Katrina and it’s cetainly not hitting a populated area like Katrina did. The, the best thing...

It’s approaching 9 p.m. at the Hurricane Center. Max Mayfield divides his time between meteorology and public relations. He knows his words may decide whether someone stays in their house or heads for higher ground.

(Did you hear anything on the levees?
Yeah. Sure.
Yeah. Just. you have, havn't a break until 9 **?
Oh, you're so kind to me.
At the Houston Station I *
Anytime I'll talk to Houston, anytime they wanna talk about it.)

It’s now after 10 p.m. less than an hour before Mayfield will broadcast the Hurricane Center’s last major advisory¹¹ before Rita strikes land. Mayfield consults with his colleagues.

(so I don't understand.
And the light.
it's gonna go Wilbon.That's not good stuff¹², right? Yeah, it's...
That looks just like this. Right? I just feel it very hard.
That's it. I just tell you it's just not that hard.
So Park Arthur is....)

Mayfield has gathered all the information he can. He sits down at a desk surrounded by reporters. Behind him is a huge video screen showing satellite images of Rita approaching the coast. Mayfield turns to the television camera.

Good evening, this is 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time and 10 p.m. Central Daylight Time Update on dangerous Hurricane Rita. The eye of the hurricane / is located about 55 miles southeast of Sabine Pass , near the Texas-Louisiana border, is moving toward the northwest at 12 miles per hour which should get the eye onto the coast in about 4 hours or so.

Mayfield is pretty close. The storm arrives four and a half hours later almost exactly where the forecasters said it would.

John Hamilton, NPR news, Miami.