万花筒 Kaleidoscope 2007-05-02&05-03, 2010年的伊朗

（单词翻译）

CBS News has learned a new intelligence report says Iran has overcome technical difficulties in enriching uranium and could have enough bomb-grade material for a single nuclear weapon less than three years from now.

U.S. intelligence officials caution that before Iran could meet or beat that 2010 date, it would have to make further technical progress in operating this uranium enrichment plant now under construction. As a result, there is no change in the official estimate. It will take Iran until 2015 to become a nuclear power. But David Albright, a leading expert, thinks that doesn't give Iran's scientists enough credit.

I think Iran can get enough high-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons sooner than that and I think the 2015 number er, reflects too much skepticism about Iran's technical capabilities¹, and they are, they are making progress.

Although U.S. intelligence still considers an Iranian nuclear weapon by 2010 a worst case scenario², Pentagon officials say the new report narrows the window in which Israel might launch a preemptive strike against Iran, as it did in 1981 against an Iraqi nuclear reactor³.

Israel is the country most threatened by the prospect⁴ of an Iranian nuclear weapon. And former CIA officer Bruce Riedel says this latest intelligence will increase the chances of an Israeli strike launched with American-built warplanes.

Israelis have long believed that Iran is closer than the U.S. intelligence community believes it is. If they now hear that the Americans think it's getting closer as well, it puts pressure on Israel to take its own action.

Riedel adds that an Israeli strike could be seen in Iran as no different from an American strike and could involve the U.S. in a war against a much tougher opponent than Iraq.

David Martin, CBS News, the Pentagon.