欧元区经济增长疲软
时间：2013-11-12 03:01:14
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欧元区经济增长疲软
LONDON, Nov. 11 (Xinhua) -- The European Bank for Reconstruction1 and Development (EBRD) Monday lowered its forecast for growth in its main area of operations, the transition European and central Asian states, to 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent forecast last May.
The reduction in growth expectations are both cyclical, reflecting continuing weak external demand, and
structural2, reflecting lower growth potential, limited sources of finance for investment and unfinished structural problems.
Erik Berglof, chief
economist3 at EBRD, told a press conference at the bank's headquarters in London that a return to growth in the eurozone was a welcome boost but warned, "The
banking4 system weighs on growth
prospects5 for Europe and there are still very significant internal adjustments going on affecting growth in the eurozone in particular."
Berglof said the latest forecast for growth this year in the EBRD nations was down from 2.3 to 2.0 percent and for 2014 from 3.2 percent forecast in May to 2.8 percent forecast now.
The
pickup6 in the eurozone and advanced economies has helped the EBRD nations, said Berglof, but the slowdown in emerging markets had been a handicap.
Berglof said, "Our countries have become more vulnerable to this -- particularly the central European ones, because of their
integration7 into the value chains of exporters in the eurozone, particularly Germany."
He added that "the most important market in our region is Russia, and there the slowdown continues," amid a
subdued8 investment climate.
Berglof explained that since the 2008 financial crisis, there had been continuing low levels of investment in the region with
ongoing9 long-term effects on growth.
"We need to find new ways of supporting lending into the region," said Berglof.
Berglof explained that the
premium10 that existed from the nations having been centrally planned economies created in the old industrial structures of
socialist11 times is now over.
"That premium has been had and they now have the same problems as other emerging markets," said Berglof.
He added, "We expect lower growth and productivity, so the economies in our region have become more like regular emerging markets."
Greater growth required an increase in structural reforms, though Berglof said there had been very little structural reform in the last decade.
Inflation rates are coming down, which is a positive, said Berglof, but warned that one concern now is deflation coming from the eurozone, those nations most exposed are in southeast Europe because of the economic problems in Greece and Italy.
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