Amid continued global market turmoil, the U.S. Congress' top economic forecaster says he believes the United States is entering a period of slow growth, but that the country will avoid a recession where the head of the Congressional Budget Office testified on Capitol Hill Wednesday.
美国总统布什的首席谈判代表、财政部长保尔森星期三跟国会领袖举行会谈，商讨经济刺激方案。与此同时，美国国会预算办公室的高级经济学家在国会举行的听证会上表示，他相信美国经济正在进入一个缓慢增长的时期，而不会陷入衰退。
According to many economists, the root cause of this week's worldwide market upheaval is the widespread view that the United States is at risk of a recession after four years of moderate-to-robust growth. Such fears have been stoked by recent reports of a slowdown in the economy, rising unemployment, and no end in sight to a credit crunch as well as a weakening U.S. housing market.
在很多经济学家看来，这个星期世界范围内的市场动荡根源在于美国经济在经历了四年稳步强劲的增长之后现在正濒临衰退的边缘，尤其是最近的一系列报告显示经济发展减速、失业人口增加、信贷危机不退、房屋市场滑坡，更进一步加剧了人们对美国经济走软的恐惧。
But are the fears justified? Maybe, but probably not, according to the assessment from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Peter Orszag.
然而这种恐惧真的有道理吗？根据国会预算办公室主任彼得.奥斯扎格的评估，也许有，也许没有，难以断言。
"The bottom line is that the risk of recession is substantially elevated," he said. "But CBO expects a period of unusually weak growth rather than outright recession: growth for the year as a whole of under two percent and a rise in the unemployment rate to an average of 5.1 percent during 2008."
他对国会众议院预算委员会说：“归根结蒂，经济衰退的风险被大大夸张了。不过，国会预算办公室预期，美国经济与其说会彻底陷入衰退，不如说会进入一个不同寻常的疲软增长期：2008年全年的经济增长率估计会低于2%，失业率会上升到平均5.1%。”
Orszag was speaking before the House Budget Committee. Before the committee met, one member, Democratic Representative Jim Cooper, predicted Washington will act soon to boost the economy in the form of a federal stimulus package, with its centerpiece likely to be rebate checks for U.S. taxpayers.
星期三，国会众议院议长佩洛西和少数党领袖博纳带领民主、共和两党领袖跟财政部长保尔森进行磋商，争取早日制定出一个包括退税在内的一揽子经济刺激计划。这个计划预计会在两个星期内出台。国会议员吉姆.库珀表示，华盛顿正在行动起来，齐心协力振兴经济。
"I think you are going to see Democrats and Republicans, the White House and Congress putting about a one percent [of GDP] stimulus into this economy," he explained. "Hopefully the checks can be in people's hands by the spring [coming months], at the latest by June."
他说：“我想你们将会看到，民主党人、共和党人、白宫和国会将一致决定拿出国内生产总值的1%来刺激经济。这笔钱可望在今年春天、最迟在6月份就可以分发到人民手中。”
Recent days have seen a flurry of discussions between congressional leaders and White House officials in an attempt to craft the package, with a current estimated price tag of about $150 billion.
美国国内生产总值的1%相当于1500亿美元。
But some on Capitol Hill are raising concerns about the plan. Paul Ryan is the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee.
但是，也有一些国会议员对于这个拟议中的经济刺激计划感到担心。
"I am concerned that, in our rush to help, we will talk ourselves into a quick feel-good hit [plan] today that will leave us with a bigger budgetary hangover tomorrow," he explained. "We need to understand that we simply cannot spend our way to prosperity. I am particularly concerned that Congress will use the excuse of fiscal stimulus to push through a wish list of new spending, further worsening our budget outlook and our nation's economic future."
保罗.瑞安是众议院预算委员会的资深共和党议员。他说：“我担心的是：我们今天这样匆忙救急，拿出一个使我们马上感觉良好的刺激计划，可是到了明天，我们却将背上一个更大的预算包袱。我们需要懂得，我们不能只是通过多花钱来制造繁荣。我特别担心的是：国会将以财政刺激为借口罗列出一整套新的开销，结果使我们的预算前景更加恶化，使我们国家的经济前途更加暗淡。”
To date, there appears to be bipartisan consensus that any package should be quickly implemented and brief in duration, a quick financial jolt to spur consumer and business spending.
迄今为止，民主、共和两党似乎都同意刺激经济的措施应该立即实施，但持续的时间要短，也就是说，给经济打一剂强心针，只要让消费者和工商企业增加开支就行了。
But will it work? CBO Director Orszag says the economic bounce resulting from the last stimulus package, enacted in 2001 as the United States was slipping into recession, proved to be greater than many economists had predicted. He added that lower-income Americans are more likely to quickly spend any tax rebate, while the wealthy are more likely to save or invest the extra cash.
然而这种做法会起作用吗？国会预算办公室主任奥斯扎格指出，过去的经验证明，这种刺激措施行之有效，比如，在2001年，正当美国经济一步步走向衰退的时候，联邦政府拿出的刺激方案使美国经济起死回生，效果之好超过了很多经济学家的预期。他认为，低收入的美国人大多会把退税得来的钱全部花出去，而比较富裕的家庭则会把钱存起来或用于投资。
The larger question of whether a recession can be avoided, with or without a stimulus package, is a matter of debate. Eric Schurenberg is managing editor of Money Magazine.
然而，经济学家对于联邦政府的刺激措施是否能再次使美国经济避免衰退仍然争论不休。埃里克.舒伦伯格是货币杂志的主编。
"It is really hard to know what will happen. A lot depends on whether financial institutions can work themselves out of this credit crunch and begin lending again and put money to work in the economy," he noted.
他说：“的确很难说到底会发生什么情况。从很大程度上讲，要看金融机构能否摆脱信贷危机，重新开始发放贷款，把资金投入到经济活动中去。”
Already the U.S. Central Bank has acted to make it easier for consumers and businesses to secure loans. Tuesday, the Federal Reserve lowered a key interest rate by three-quarters of one percent, and many economists predict further rate cuts will be forthcoming.
美国的中央银行已经通过大幅度降低利率来使消费者和企业更容易得到贷款。这个星期二，美联储把联邦基金利率削减了0.75%。很多经济学家预期美联储今后还会进一步降低利率。
But if a global economic downturn is to be averted, some believe central banks in Europe and elsewhere will have to follow the Fed's lead.
不过，很多人认为，要想使全球经济避免滑坡，欧洲和世界其他地区的中央银行都应该像美联储一样削减利率。
Art Hogan is chief market strategist at the global investing house Jefferies and Company.
杰佛里投资公司的首席市场策略师霍根就持有这种观点。
''When you see the Fed getting aggressive, you hope that is something that will be in a synchronized fashion with other [central banks of] industrialized nations, in particular the European Central Bank and the Bank of England," he noted. "That not happening yet has been a disappointment in the marketplace, and we seeing some [stock] selling pressure because of that."
他说：“当你看到美联储如此敢做敢为的时候，你会希望其他工业化国家的中央银行也都能跟美联储同步行动，尤其是欧洲央行和英格兰银行。然而我们至今没有看到他们协调行动，这使市场感到非常失望，结果，市场上的卖压仍然不轻。”
For a second straight day, U.S. markets opened sharply lower, with oil prices down.
连续两天华尔街股市在油价下滑中开盘急剧下跌。 |