According to three former senior U.S. government officials, one of the central foreign policy questions facing the incoming Obama administration will be how to deal with a resurgent Russia.
即将上任的奥巴马政府面临的一个主要外交政策问题是如何应对重新崛起的俄罗斯。三位前美国政府高级官员讨论了美国和俄罗斯之间的关系。
Most experts agree that relations between Washington and Moscow are not good. Some analysts use words such as "poor," "strained" and "at a low point" to describe the relationship.
大部分专家都同意，美国和俄罗斯之间的关系并不好。一些分析人士用“糟糕”“紧张”和“处于低谷”来形容两国间的关系。
Former National Security Adviser [1974-77; 1989-93; retired Air Force] General Brent Scowcroft says the relationship is tense despite meetings over the years between President George Bush and then Russian President - now prime minister - Vladimir Putin.
曾担任美国国家安全事务顾问的空军退休将军斯考克罗夫特说，虽然布什总统和原来担任俄罗斯总统、现在担任总理的普京在过去几年中举行了多次会晤，但是两国的关系依然紧张。
"Nothing really has ever resulted from it. I think we are in part talking past each other," he said. "I think we have never really sat down and developed a strategy for dealing with Russia following the end of the Cold War. The collapse of the Soviet Union has sort of liberated Russia from its history. Now I think it's struggling, in a way, to figure out who it is, what it is, where it's going. I think they feel that we have taken advantage of them in their period of weakness and confusion."
他说：“两人的这些会晤其实没有产生任何实质性的结果。我认为，从某种意义上说，我们在会谈中忽略了彼此。美国从来没有认真坐下来制定一个处理冷战后同俄罗斯关系的战略。苏联的解体把俄罗斯从自己的历史中解放出来。我认为，目前的俄罗斯在挣扎着确定自己是谁，要走向何方。俄罗斯人觉得美国在俄罗斯虚弱和迷惑的时期占了俄罗斯的便宜。”
Former Secretary of Defense [1973-75] James Schlesinger agrees.
曾在1973年到1975年担任美国国防部长的施莱辛格同意这种观点。
"The United States has tended to, in the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, ignore Russian sensitivities," he said. "But the Russians have of late demonstrated a degree of brutality that is not conducive to pleasant conversations. Whether that will change is unclear."
他说：“自从苏联解体以来，美国一直忽略了俄罗斯感到敏感的一些问题。不过，俄罗斯最近也展示了一定程度的野蛮，这不利于展开健康的对话。这种情况是否会改变目前还不清楚。”
Schlesinger was referring to the August five-day war between Russia and Georgia - a conflict that cooled relations between the United States and Russia even further. Washington strongly criticized Moscow's massive military incursion into Georgia in response to Tbilisi's abortive attempt to take over the capital of the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
施莱辛格所说的“野蛮”是去年8月俄罗斯同格鲁吉亚之间进行的5天交战。那次冲突进一步使美俄关系降温。在格鲁吉亚夺取分离省份南奥赛梯首府的企图失败后，俄罗斯大举军事入侵格鲁吉亚，遭到美国的强烈批评。
Experts say there are other major disagreements between Washington and Moscow. One of those is the Bush administration's backing of Georgia and Ukraine to become members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Moscow is against that. President-elect Barack Obama has indicated he favors NATO membership - but only when those two countries are ready.
有关专家说，美国和俄罗斯之间还存在其它重大分歧。其中之一是布什政府支持格鲁吉亚和乌克兰加入北约，而俄罗斯对此表示反对。美国当选总统奥巴马表示，他支持格鲁吉亚和乌克兰加入北约，但是只有在这两个国家具备条件后才能加入。
Another point of disagreement is the U.S. plan - also strongly opposed by Moscow - to put an anti-missile defense shield in Eastern Europe - 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic. Mr. Obama's advisers say he supports the missile defense system, but only when the technology is proven to be workable.
另一个分歧是美国计划在东欧部署导弹防御系统，即在波兰设置10个导弹拦截器，在捷克共和国建立一个雷达站。俄罗斯对此表示强烈反对。奥巴马的顾问们说，奥巴马支持建立导弹防御系统，不过前提是要证明这些防御技术能发挥作用。
"From my perspective, and I know everyone will be horrified now, particularly my conservative friends - but I do think we bear some responsibility for the less friendly relationship we now have with them," said Former Secretary of State [1992] Lawrence Eagleburger. "If you are going to bring about alliances along Russia's border and you end up putting anti-ballistic missile launchers and so forth, it seems to me what the Russians have to take away from that is that we intend to isolate them. And our eastern European friends and allies, which used to be puppets to the Soviet Union - they are happy to go along with this as well because they see this as protection from the monster that governed them for so long. But the Russians have to, I think, look at that as an attempt at isolation."
曾在1992年担任美国国务卿的伊格尔伯格说：“我知道我的想法会让很多人吃惊，特别是一些保守主义者，不过，我的确认为美国要为不太友好的美俄关系负一定责任。如果你要沿俄罗斯边界建立联盟，最后还在那里放一批反弹道导弹发射器，我认为，俄罗斯一定会把这理解为美国要孤立它。而我们在东欧的朋友和盟国曾经是苏联的傀儡，他们愿意支持美国的做法，因为他们觉得这样可以保护他们，使他们逃离统治他们多年的俄罗斯的魔爪。不过俄罗斯一定会觉得这是美国孤立俄罗斯的企图。”
Analysts say despite the bad relations, Washington and Moscow are cooperating in such areas as fighting terrorism, energy security and nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.
分析人士说，虽然美俄关系不佳，但是在反恐、能源安全、核武器控制和核不扩散等领域双方正在进行合作。
Former National Security Adviser General Brent Scowcroft says he is encouraged by President-elect Barack Obama's willingness to discuss issues with friends and foes alike.
前美国国家安全事务顾问斯考克罗夫特说，美国当选总统奥巴马愿意同朋友和敌人都进行谈判的态度让他受到鼓舞。
"That's one of the reassuring aspects of his approach to foreign policy, for me, that you maximize your chances of making progress if you're talking to people," he said. "In the deepest, darkest days of our conflict with the Soviet Union - or our confrontation with the Soviet Union - we talked to them. We had talks on the most sensitive issue of all and that is nuclear arms - and I think it helped a lot."
他说：“我认为，这是奥巴马处理外交政策方法中的一个积极方面，那就是，如果你和别人谈判，你就能有最大的机会取得进展。在我们同苏联的冲突最深、最黑暗的日子里，也就是我们同苏联对峙的时期，我们还是和他们进行了谈判。我们谈判的内容是所有问题中最敏感的，那就是核武器问题。我认为，那些谈判发挥了很大作用。”
Many experts are calling for a summit meeting between President Obama and Russian leader Dmitri Medvedev in the early months of the new U.S. administration. They say such a meeting would provide a solid basis for improving a relationship that needs a positive jolt.
许多专家呼吁奥巴马和俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫在美国新政府上任后不久就举行首脑会议。他们说，美俄关系需要积极的推动，而这样的首脑会议能为改善两国关系提供坚实的基础。 |