President-elect Barack Obama has said that very soon after his inauguration on Tuesday he will meet with top U.S. military leaders to discuss priorities. During the election campaign he said he would give the military a new mission in Iraq. But priorities have changed since then and now the meeting may focus more on Afghanistan, where Mr. Obama is expected to implement a troop increase that President Bush promised.
美国当选总统奥巴马说，星期二就职之后，他将很快会见美国军事负责人，讨论首要任务。在竞选过程中他曾经表示，将给驻伊拉克美军新的任务。不过从那时到现在，一些优先事项已经改变，现在讨论的重点可能更多是阿富汗问题。奥巴马预计将会履行布什总统的承诺，向阿富汗增兵。
The president-elect had said he wanted most U.S. combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months of his inauguration. But late last year, the Bush administration signed an agreement with Iraq that takes a different approach, requiring the removal of U.S. combat troops from Iraqi cities by June, and the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the entire country by the end of 2011.
奥巴马曾表示，希望大部分美军作战部队在他就职之后16个月内从伊拉克撤出。但去年底布什政府与伊拉克签署的一项协议与此不同，协议要求美军作战部队今年6月前撤出伊拉克城市，在2011年底前全部撤出伊拉克。
It is not clear exactly what orders Obama will give, but he has said he will listen to the concerns of top military officers before making any final decisions.
目前还不清楚奥巴马将下达什么样的命令，但他说过他将会聆听军方高层官员所关切的问题，然后再作出最后决定。
One of the main concerns he will hear relates to Afghanistan, where the U.S. commander has asked for 14,000 more combat troops and several thousand more support troops. The new president's appointee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy, was asked about that at her Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday. "I actually think the intent of both President-elect Obama and (Defense) Secretary (Robert) Gates is to move as quickly as possible. I have not yet been briefed on the details in terms of what would be required to do that. But I do believe that in principle we should be moving as quickly as possible," she said.
他将听到军方关切的一个主要问题涉及阿富汗。美军指挥官已经要求在阿富汗增加1万4000名作战部队以及数千名支援部队。新总统提名的主管政策的国防部副部长米歇尔·弗卢努瓦在星期四的参议院任命听证当中，被问到这个问题。她说：“实际上，我认为当选总统奥巴马以及国防部长盖茨希望尽快快行动。我还没有听取有关行动细节的简报。但我相信，在原则上，我们应该越快行动越好。”
But Pentagon officials say moving quickly to add troops in Afghanistan means reducing troop numbers in Iraq. General David Petraeus, the former U.S. commander in Iraq who now has responsibility for the entire Middle East and Central Asia region, says he, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and the new U.S. Iraq commander, General Ray Odierno, believe the United States needs to be careful about removing troops from Iraq too quickly. "The ambassador and General Odierno and I have reminded everyone, it is our view that the progress does remain fragile. It does remain reversible," he said.
但五角大楼官员说，快速在阿富汗增军，意味着减少驻伊拉克部队的人数。前驻伊美军司令、现在掌管整个中东与中亚地区的彼得雷乌斯将军说，他、美国驻伊拉克大使克罗克，以及现任驻伊美军最高指挥官奥迪耶诺，都认为美国在迅速从伊拉克撤军问题上应当谨慎行事。彼得雷乌斯说：“大使、奥迪耶诺将军和我提请所有人注意，我们现在取得得进展还很脆弱，依旧有可能被逆转。”
And some experts warn against adding too many foreign troops to Afghanistan. Among them is Zbigniew Brzezinski, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who was President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser in the 1970s when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan. "This runs the risk of gradually turning the Afghan population against our efforts. The enterprise thus, paradoxically, is turning in the direction painfully reminiscent of what the Soviets experienced," he said.
有些专家则对向阿富汗增派太多外国部队提出警告，其中包括约翰霍普金斯大学教授布热津斯基。1970年代前苏联侵占阿富汗期间，他是卡特总统的国家安全顾问。布热津斯基说：“这有可能使阿富汗人逐渐转为反对我们的努力。矛盾的是，这种冒险的做法有可能让我们重蹈当年苏联的痛苦覆辙。”
Brzezinski says any troop increases should be relatively small, and focused on particular problem areas in Afghanistan, where Taliban insurgents who support the country's former government have been particularly active in recent months.
布热津斯基认为，任何增兵都应该是小规模的，并且专注于阿富汗境内特别有问题的地区，也就是近几个月来，支持前政府的塔利班激进分子特别活跃的地区。
Michele Flournoy says the Obama Administration will be careful in implementing the expected troop increase. "The key principle is to shift the emphasis, but to do so in a very responsible manner," she said.
弗卢努瓦表示，奥巴马政府在增军问题上会谨慎行事。她说：“主要原则是改变重点，但以非常负责任的态度来这样做。”
Aside from troop numbers, civilian and military officials agree there needs to be a strong parallel effort to improve Afghanistan's economy and the quality of its government, and to end corruption and fight the narcotics trade. And many experts, including Zbigniew Brzezinski and General Petraeus have called for local political accommodation, perhaps even with reconcilable elements of the Taliban.
除了部队的规模，文职与军方官员一致同意，应当同步改善阿富汗的经济和政府质量，杜绝腐败，打击毒品交易。包括布热津斯基以及彼得雷乌斯将军在内的许多专家，都呼吁当地各政治派别之间实现妥协，甚至与塔利班当中的温和派合作。
That kind of strategy worked in Iraq, where General Petraeus engineered a series of agreements with previously hostile tribal leaders. Petraeus is quick to point out that Iraq and Afghanistan are very different, but he also says many of the approaches he used successfully in Iraq will likely work in Afghanistan. Among them are the needs to establish better security, provide government services, put military and police posts out among the people and to get local residents involved in providing for their own security. "The lines of operation exist. The question is how to achieve greater unity of effort among all of the different partners in this effort, and with our Afghan partners as well," he said.
这种策略在伊拉克取得了效果。彼得雷乌斯将军当时推动好几个原本相互敌对的部落领导人签订一连串的协议。但他很快指出，伊拉克与阿富汗非常不同，不过许多他在伊拉克用过、并且成功的方法，可能在阿富汗也行得通，其中包括需要建立更好的安全环境，提供政府服务，把军方与警方驻点在民众当中，以及让当地民众参与提供自身安全。彼得雷乌斯说：“行动方向是有的。问题在于如何使所有不同伙伴、包括阿富汗伙伴的努力更加协调一致。”
That concept of "unity of effort" is frequently mentioned but difficult to implement, particularly in Afghanistan, where more than 40 nations provide troops and assistance.
“行动一致”这个概念经常被提及，但实施起来很困难，尤其在阿富汗，因为那里有超过40多个国家提供的军队与援助。
The White House and the Pentagon recently completed reviews of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, and delivered them to the Obama Transition Team. The top U.S. military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, said in December he did not expect any major strategy change. "At this point, anyway, I don't expect any radical changes. I think emphasis is going to be important. Clearly, we'll see where we go with a new administration with respect to that, and clearly part of the discussion will be how the strategy gets resourced," he said.
白宫和五角大楼最近完成了对美国在阿富汗战略的审议，并且审议报告提交给了奥巴马的过渡班子。美国最高军事官员麦克.马伦去年12月曾表示，他不认为会出现重大的战略改变。马伦说：“在现阶段，我并不期待任何重大的改变。重点很重要。显然，在这个问题上，我们要看新政府将如何去做，很明显，讨论的部分内容将是如何为这个策略划拨资金。”
Like other military officers and civilian officials, Admiral Mullen says the Afghanistan war will not be won by military power alone, adding that Afghanistan also needs a variety of civilian aid and advice. And the admiral also says the United States and NATO need a regional approach, taking into account the situation in Pakistan, where Afghan insurgents take refuge, and the role of other nearby countries, including Iran.
就像其他军方和文职官员一样，马伦将军也指出，阿富汗战争无法仅靠军事力量获胜，阿富汗人也需要各种非军事援助和咨询服务。马伦还谈到，美国与北约需要采取地区性的做法，考虑阿富汗激进分子藏匿的巴基斯坦的现实，以及包括伊朗在内的周边国家的作用。
That kind of regional approach is what General Petraeus is working on in his own Afghanistan strategy review, and he has a 200-member team working on it. His report is expected in February.
彼得雷乌斯将军在他对阿富汗战略的审议当中也涉及这种地区性做法，他有一个200人的团队正在研究这种做法。彼得雷乌斯的报告预计将于2月完成。 |