[00:02.02]Unit 2 Life in the Future
[00:05.19]Lesson 8
[00:09.59]Exercise 1.2
[00:13.27]Welcome back to the show.
[00:15.28]Our subject today is predictions for the future.
[00:19.03]With me in the studio
[00:20.44]I have Steve Hill and Chris Morgan.
[00:23.70]Steve is an expert in technology and inventions.
[00:27.52]Chris is the other of a book
[00:30.58]called Past ideas of the Future.
[00:33.13]Let's start with you ,Chris.
[00:35.40]Tell us,what is your book about?
[00:38.77]Basically,my book is about past predictions
[00:42.16]for the future.
[00:43.51]That is,
[00:44.34]some people made predictions in the past
[00:47.20]and some of those predictions have come true
[00:50.12]and some have not.
[00:52.13]I see.Where did you get your ideas?
[00:55.38]Well,movies are one place.
[00:57.89]It is very interesting to watch old movies
[01:00.85]that describe a future world.
[01:03.49]But what we often see is very different from
[01:06.25]the way we live now.
[01:13.46]Exercise 1.3
[01:16.36]Why is this?
[01:17.93]It's because some things
[01:19.43]that people predicted in the past
[01:21.66]have not come true ...
[01:24.22]That's true.And,on the other hand,
[01:26.20]other things
[01:27.12]that people did not expect to happen
[01:28.78]have developed so quickly.
[01:31.51]Can you give me some examples?
[01:34.39]Sure,In old movies about the future
[01:37.00]you often see people traveling in flying cars.
[01:40.76]Of course,this hasn't happened yet.
[01:43.17]But maybe this will be possible in the future.
[01:46.21]Hmm...I'm not sure about that.
[01:49.60]Other movies show that
[01:51.45]robots can do all the housework.
[01:53.54]There are robots doing housework,
[01:56.09]washing the clothes,that sort of thing ...
[01:59.05]This may be possible some time in the future.
[02:02.54]but for now..
[02:04.06]For now.
[02:04.91]We have to wash the clothes,right?
[02:07.74]I don't think it will be possible for robots
[02:10.56]to do all the housework--some jobs perhaps...
[02:15.13]Maybe you're right.
[02:16.66]Other things that we often see in old movies
[02:19.11]about the future
[02:20.37]are videophones in everybody's home.
[02:23.43]This might happen soon,
[02:24.61]but ask yourself,"How many people do you know
[02:28.50]with a videophone in their house?"
[02:31.04]Yes,I see your point.
[02:33.21]And what about the things we have now
[02:35.78]but people did not predict so much in the past?
[02:39.35]Well.
[02:39.82]I think the best example of this is the Internet
[02:43.59]Every day,millions of people use e-mail,
[02:46.82]or chat,or buy things or look for information.
[02:51.75]I agree.It's amazing
[02:53.76]how quickly the Internet has grown
[02:55.54]and I don't think anybody predicted this.
[02:58.38]Other things that have developed very quickly
[03:01.23]are cell phones
[03:02.93]-and all the amazing things that they can do.
[03:06.83]You're right,I don't think people expected
[03:09.26]these things develop so quickly
[03:11.28]and become as common as they have.
[03:18.85]Exercise 2.3
[03:21.40]Do you know how to predict the future?
[03:25.33]To make predictions for the future
[03:27.01]is very difficult.
[03:28.99]And in the world of fashion,music,etc,
[03:31.83]It is almost impossible to predict
[03:34.72]which things will be successful
[03:36.90]and which things will not be successful
[03:39.38]or will fail.
[03:41.13]One well-known example is the Beatles.
[03:44.12]At the start of their career,
[03:46.20]the group tried to get a contract
[03:48.64]but many record companies were not interested.
[03:51.78]Finally,
[03:52.61]a small company asked them to sign a contract.
[03:55.96]The rest is history.
[03:58.41]Another example is in the world of fashion.
[04:01.68]Jeans have been popular for more than a century
[04:05.37]In the 1850s,Levi Strauss thought
[04:08.71]people needed strong canvas in California.
[04:12.17]So he brought some there.
[04:14.19]But when he got there,he knew he was wrong.
[04:17.61]He didn't know what to do with the canvas.
[04:20.39]But later he found the workers there
[04:22.52]need strong pants,
[04:24.42]so he used the canvas to make pants,
[04:27.20]At that time,nobody knew that
[04:29.52]his pants would be the fashion all over the
[04:31.89]world for more than a hundred years.
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