The Chicago Board of Trade is the world's oldest futures and options exchange. There, commodities and other financial instruments are traded daily. As the clock ticks towards a deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, traders believe a default on that debt is still highly unlikely, and are more concerned about the consequences of a potential downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
芝加哥商品交易所是世界上最老的期权和期货交易所。在那里，人们每天都在进行各种各样的大宗商品和其它金融工具的交易活动。虽然提高美国债务上限的最后期限在一秒一秒地接近，但那里的交易商们认为，美国发生债务违约的可能性是很小的。他们更关心的是美国的信用评级一旦被下调可能会引起什么样的后果。
In the debate about raising the limit on government borrowing in the United States, lawmakers acknowledge that failure could bring a default on the debts owed by the United States government.
在关于提高美国政府借债限额的争论中，国会议员们承认如果借债限额不能提高的话，美国政府就有可能发生债务违约。
But Scott Shellady, who watches investments for ICAP Energy in Chicago, says a true default is highly unlikely.
不过，芝加哥ICAP能源公司的投资分析师斯考特·舍拉迪(Scott Shelladay)认为，真正的政府违约是根本不可能的。
“I think the downgrade is what we should be talking about rather than default. We’re not going to default. We’ve got enough receipts that are coming in to meet our obligations. We’re using that word to get something done sooner rather than later,” Shellady said.
他说：“我认为我们应该谈论的是美国的信用评级被下调而不是违约。我们不会违约。我们有足够的收入来支付债务。我们只是通过讨论违约的问题来争取把问题早点解决而不是拖下去。”
The United States has had the best possible credit rating, triple-A, since 1917. The main credit rating agencies say they are reviewing the U.S. government debt situation for a potential downgrade. The consequences of a downgrade would be far-reaching.
自1917年以来，美国的信用评级总是最高的，也就是三A级。主要的信用评级公司表示，他们在关注美国政府的债务状况，有可能下调美国的信用评级。如果美国的信用评级真的被下调，后果将是深远的。
“We are going to have to attract buyers for our bonds to continue to pay our debts and run our government. The only way we can really do that is to give them a higher return. So our interest rates are going to have to go up to attract outside investors, and in doing so it’s going to drive everyone else’s interest rates up all the way down the line,” Shellady said.
舍拉迪说：“我们必须吸引人们购买美国的债券，这样我们才能够支付债务，才能够维持政府的运转。我们要吸引买主的唯一方法是给他们提供更高的回报。所以，我们的利率就得提高，这样才能对外国投资者产生吸引力。这样做的时候，大家的利率就只会越来越高了。”
Northwestern University Economics Professor Paola Sapienza says any savings from budget cuts could become irrelevant, if the U.S. defaults on its debt, or receives a credit rating downgrade.
西北大学的经济学教授保拉·萨皮恩扎(Paola Sapienza)表示，如果美国发生债务违约或者信用评级被下调，美国通过削减预算省下来的钱都会失去意义。
“The irony of this is that if the yield [interest rate] goes up, some of the consequences would be spending to service the debt would go up, potentially by a large amount, affecting other types of services that need to be cut,” Sapienza said.
萨皮恩扎说：“具有讽刺意味的是，如果债券收益率上升，出现的后果是，用于支付债务利息的钱就会大幅度增加，从而有可能影响到那些需要削减的服务类别。”
As the debate continues in Washington, traders on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade are watching closely.
华盛顿的辩论还在继续，芝加哥商品交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)交易大厅的交易商们也在密切关注。
“The mood on the trading floor is subdued,” said Matthew Pierce, who analyzes commodity prices for GrainAnalyst.com.
分析师马修·皮尔斯说：“交易大厅的情绪很沉闷。”皮尔斯是GrainAnalyst.com的大宗商品价格分析师。
“We would be extremely bullish right now based on the fundamentals alone, but because of the currency and debt issue, we have to keep that bullishness in check until we found out further information of whether we’re going to reach a deal or not,” he said.
他说：“如果只看基本面的话，我们对市场的看法是牛气冲天。但是由于货币和债务问题，我们只好暂时抑制一下我们的乐观情绪，直到我们看到有关债务上限的谈判是否能够有个结果的消息。”
August 2 is the deadline to reach an agreement. That’s when the U.S. Treasury says it will no longer have the money needed to meet all of its financial obligations.
8月2日是债务谈判的最后期限。这一天也是财政部说的它用于支付所有债务所需要的钱用光的时候。
“The closer we get to that date of having to have something done, it’s going to be a worse deal, and we’re going to have to either go through this in six months time, or eight months time, eighteen months time, or five years time, but we’re going to have to go through this again unless we have something significant as far as the cutting part goes,” Shellady said.
舍拉迪说：“不得不做出某种决定的日子越近，情况可能就越不妙。我们不是再过六个月就是再过八个月、18个月或者五年就得再这样来一次。不过，除非我们在削减赤字方面能够取得重大的进展，否则这样艰难的抉择我们还要再来一次。”
Even if lawmakers do reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoid default, credit rating agencies say the threat of a downgrade still exists without a long-term plan to fix the federal deficit.
既使议员们达成一致提高了债务上限，避免了违约，但信用评级机构还会认为，美国没有拿出一个解决联邦赤字的长期计划，所以信用评级下调的威胁仍然不会消失。 |