Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin switches campaign managers in the middle of an election campaign. Is his position as solid as he would like the world to think?
The prime minister was talking tough, telling a nationwide TV audience that the parliamentary elections are over, and it’s time to move on.
普京总理曾措辞强硬地对全国电视观众说，议会选举已经结束，是前进的时候了。
But the tough talk came days after his government announced political reforms in hopes of taking the momentum out of a planned opposition rally. The move seemed to have had little impact. The rally, which took place in Moscow Saturday, drew an estimated 100,000 protesters.
但在普京发表这番措辞强硬的言论几天前，他的政府才宣布进行政治改革，以期削弱反对派计划中的集会的力量。政府这项举动似乎没起什么作用。星期六在莫斯科举行的集会，估计吸引了10万名抗议者。
“The psychological compensation he needs when being forced to make some moves and being afraid that these moves in a positive direction being perceived as his weakness,” said Nikolai Petrov, political analyst for the Carnegie Moscow Center, about the tough talk.
卡内基莫斯科中心的政治分析家佩特罗夫解释了普京姿态强硬的动机。佩特罗夫说：“当他被迫作出一些回应，并害怕这些正面回应被当成他的弱点时，措辞强硬成了他的一种心理补偿。”
A clear sign of problems came Tuesday when Putin decided to switch campaign managers - less than 10 weeks before the presidential election.
问题在星期二浮现。普京星期二决定更换竞选团队，距离总统大选剩下不到10周的时间。
Vladislav Surkov, the sidelined political advisor, helped Putin come to power in 2000. A former advertising man, he worked for a decade in the Kremlin. He created the now ruling United Russia party. He created Nashi, the Putin youth group. And he brought television channels under tight political controls.
苏尔科夫是名局外的政治顾问，曾协助普京在2000年胜选执政。他从前在广告业工作，他为克里姆林宫工作了10年。他一手打造了现在的执政党统一俄罗斯党，以及亲普京的“纳什”青年组织。他还将电视媒体置于严密的政治控制之下。
“This replacement weakens the Kremlin in that Surkov is the founding father of the big political machine which will not work effectively without him,” said Petrov, who worked in the Kremlin before Surkov arrived.
佩特罗夫在苏尔科夫进入克里姆林宫前曾在克里姆林宫工作。佩特罗夫说：“这项人事更换会削弱克里姆林宫，因为苏尔科夫是庞大政治机器的建立者，没有他机器就无法有效运转。”
The new political advisor, Vyacheslav Volodin, was a founder of the Russia Popular Front, a support group of trade unions and professional groups.
新任政治顾问沃洛金是全俄人民阵线的创立者。这个团体是贸易工会和专业团体的支援团体。
This heavily blue collar group may become a key pillar of support for Putin as Russia’s urban middle class tire of him. At a televised meeting of the Front on Tuesday, Putin, nodded sympathetically as a retired metal worker spoke of his outrage at the anti-government postings on Russia’s free-wheeling Internet.
这个蓝领色彩鲜明的团体可能成为支持普京的关键力量，因为俄罗斯城市的中产阶级厌倦了普京。
Legitimacy
Putin seeks to win the March 4 presidential elections on the first round, with over 50 percent of the vote.
普京希望在3月4日总统大选的第一轮投票就获得超过50%得票率而胜选。
Talking to Front members, he called for transparent election, using clear plastic ballot boxes. He stressed his desire that election be perceived - in Russia and overseas - as legitimate.
他在和全俄人民阵线成员讲话时呼吁进行一个透明的选举，使用干净的塑料投票箱。他强调，他希望俄罗斯国内外都认为选举是合法的。
He said he can be elected president without ballot stuffing.
普京说，他不需要靠灌票就能选上总统。
On Wednesday, a Wall Street Journal computerized study of returns from Russia’s nearly 100,000 polling stations concluded that about 40 percent of votes cast for the ruling party were in some way associated with ballot stuffing and other fraudulent practices.
《华尔街日报》星期三用电脑研究俄罗斯将近10万投票站的投票结果，发现40%投给执政党的票在某些方面和灌票及其他舞弊行为有关联。
Putin warned his supporters that they should not tolerate any “independent actions” at polling stations.
普京警告他的支持者，他们不应该容忍在投票站发生的任何“自发性行动”。
Measures against corruption
The opposition has vowed to send dozens of poll watchers to stations where they suspect there was fraud in the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections.
反对派誓言要派遣几十名选举观察员到那些他们怀疑在12月4日议会选举出现舞弊情况的投票站。
Indeed, the new drive for free and fair elections shows no sign of going away.
事实上，新一波要求举行自由公正选举的民意并没有消退的迹象。
In a survey conducted by the All-Russian Public Opinion Center, 89 percent of those polled said they plan to join more rallies after Russia’s mid-winter break, which starts Friday.
全俄罗斯民意调查中心一项调查显示，89%受访者说，他们计划在俄罗斯这星期五开始的寒假结束后加入更多场集会。
This week in Moscow, protesters rallied outside a court where one protest leader, Sergei Udaltsov, was being tried. Dozens got in shoving matches with police inside a courthouse. Hundreds more rallied outside. They chanted “Shame on the corrupt court,” and that the judge was “A servant of Satan.”
这星期在莫斯科，在一名抗议领袖乌达特索夫受审时抗议者聚集在法院外。几十人进到法院和警察发生推挤。还有其他数百人在法院外。他们高呼“以腐败法院为耻”，法官是“撒旦的仆人”。
More, small unsanctioned demonstrations planned for this week in Moscow.
另外，这星期在莫斯科还有更多未获批准的小型示威要举行。
Last Friday, Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and close friend of Putin, met with Putin and discussed the opposition movement. The next day, Kudrin spoke at the mass, opposition rally. He warned that, without dialogue, there could be revolution. |