VOA常速英语2013--美国政府关门引发全球担心（在线收听）

Global Fears Grow Over US Shutdown 美国政府关门引发全球担心

There are new worries about the consequences of the U.S. government shutdown.  The Treasury Department says failure to reach a deal on the country’s financial obligations, including the debt ceiling, could plunge the U.S. economy into a recession.  On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund said that, without a deal soon, the ongoing fiscal problems of the United States could drag the rest of the world with it.

The economic cost of the country’s first government shutdown in 17 years is staggering. One estimate pegs the daily losses to businesses, tourism and lost wages at $300 million a day - or $1.6 billion each week..

美国政府17年来首次关门的经济成本令人吃惊，有人估计商业、旅游业损失和工资损失为每天3亿美元，即每周16亿美元。

And that’s just the shutdown.  The bigger worry is a possible impasse over the government's debt ceiling.  

这还只是关门的后果，更大的担心是涉及政府债务限额可能带来的僵局。

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde:

IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德：

“The government shutdown is bad enough, but failure to raise the debt ceiling would be far worse and could very seriously damage not only the U.S. economy but also the entire global economy," she said.

“政府关门够糟糕了，但未能提高借债限额将更糟，可能不仅影响美国经济，还影响全球经济。”

If lawmakers don’t reach a deal to raise the country’s $16.7 trillion debt limit, the Treasury Department says the U.S. will run out of money to pay its obligations by October 17.  

如果议员们不能达成协议以提高美国16.7万亿的债务限额，财政部称美国将在10月7日无钱支付债务。

If that happens, investors would lose faith in the U.S. economy, the value of the dollar would plunge, interest rates would soar and unemployment would rise.

一旦这一情况发生，投资者将失去对美国经济的信心，美元的价值将大幅下跌，利率将上涨，失业率将上升。

That's the worst case scenario - but one that grows more probable each day the shutdown continues.  

这是最糟糕的情况，但关门继续持续下去的可能进一步增加。

Tony Crescenzi is an investment manager at Pimco.

太平洋投资管理公司投资经理托尼·克里森斯：

“It is a serious matter, defaulting.  And markets, while they assign a very low probability and so would we, are starting to worry a little bit because of the lack of getting together, the acrimony that exists in Washington," said Crescenzi.

“违约是个严重问题，他们给市场提供了低概率，由于缺少团结和华盛顿目前存在的争执，我们开始有点担心。”

On Wall Street, the stock sell-off intensified Thursday, after Republicans and Democrats emerged from a White House meeting no closer to an agreement than when they started.

周四华尔街纷纷抛售股票，此前，共和党和民主党在白宫会谈中未能达成协议。

Adding to the frustration,  the Labor Department says monthly job numbers,  an important indicator of U.S. economic health, will not be released as planned on Friday.

更糟糕的是，劳工部称，衡量美国经济健康度的重要指标月就业人数不会如期在周五发布。

Without that data, Stan Collender, the head of the financial communications firm Qorvis, says the Federal Reserve is now more likely to delay plans to scale back its monetary stimulus.

Qorvis财经公关公司负责人斯坦·科伦德说，没有这个数据，联邦储备现在更可能推迟减少货币刺激的计划。

“The lack of a jobs report probably freezes the Fed in place, unless they’ve got their own information and they may very well have what would indicate what the jobs report might have been," said Collender.

“缺少就业报告使得联邦政府无能为力，除非他们获得自己的信息，他们原本会有有关就业报告的信息。”

Given the likely financial impact of the shutdown, Collender says keeping the stimulus in place is a good thing.  But the daily uncertainty carries a heavy price for U.S. businesses. Retailers are worried that a prolonged shutdown could make consumers anxious.  Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s economic output.

考虑到关门可能带来的金融影响，科伦德说保持刺激措施是正确的。但每日的不确定给美国商业带来了沉重的代价，零售商担心持久的关门会令消费者担忧。消费者开支占美国经济产出的近70%。