VOA常速英语2013--专家分析：世界困惑地注视着美国的危机（在线收听）

Analyst: World Watches US Crisis With Bewilderment 专家分析：世界困惑地注视着美国的危机

As the U.S. government budget crisis enters a second week, there are concerns that the rivalry between Democrats and Republicans in Congress may bring the United States to default, which would cause domestic and global economic woes. The world is observing developments in the U.S. capital with bewilderment, as well as concern.

美国政府预算危机进入第二个星期之际，中国要求及时解决国债上限争执。中国财政部副部长朱光耀还说，一旦发生债务违约，美国应首先确保国债利息的支付。在美国方面，很多人担心国会民主共和两党间的对立可能导致美国出现的债务违约，会造成美国国内以及全球经济灾难。

Republicans may allow default

The top Republican leader in the U.S. House of Representatives has signaled that he may allow the United States to default for the first time in history if President Barack Obama refuses a compromise on federal spending. The United States must increase its debt ceiling by October 17 to be able to pay for government debt already accrued.

国会众议院共和党最高领导人已经表明，假如奥巴马总统拒绝在联邦开支问题上妥协，他可能会让美国出现历史上第一次债务违约。美国为了支付已有政府债务，必须在10月17日之前提高债务上限。

The president, a Democrat, said he is open to negotiation with the Republicans on any issue, but not amid such threats. "We're not going to negotiate under the threat of further harm to our economy and middle class families. We're not going to negotiate under the threat of a prolonged shutdown until Republicans get 100 percent of what they want," Obama said. "We're not going to negotiate under the threat of economic catastrophe that economists and CEOs increasingly warn would result if Congress chose to default on America's obligations.

而奥巴马总统则坚称，他可以就任何问题同共和党谈判，但是不能在共和党的威胁情况下谈。奥巴马说：“我们不会在进一步伤害美国经济和中产阶级家庭的威胁下谈判；我们不会在共和党扬言，除非百分之百得到他们所要的东西，否则将长期关闭政府的情况下谈判；我们不会在经济灾难的威胁声中谈判，经济学家和工商领导人不断警告说，假如国会决意让美国出现债务违约，就会导致这种灾难。”

Devastating consequences

One analyst warned that a prolonged shutdown could have harmful effects on the U.S. economy. But he said the U.S. defaulting on its debt would be worse.

分析人士警告说，政府长期关闭将对美国经济产生有害影响。不过他们同时表示，美国债务违约的影响将更加糟糕。

Klaus Larres, a professor of international relations at the University of North Carolina, said the consequences would be disastrous for the world still recovering from a major financial crisis. "I think the Great Recession would be back with a vengeance, and we would be back in severe economic and financial difficulties. So I can only warn that the debt ceiling problem should not be mixed up with the shutdown of the government," he stated.

北卡罗来纳大学国际关系系教授克劳斯·拉里斯说，美国债务违约对仍处于严重金融危机恢复阶段的国际社会将是灾难性的。他说：“我认为，大萧条将卷土重来，我们将再次陷入严重经济和金融困境。因此我只能这样警告，债务上限不应和政府关闭扯在一起。”

Larres said a default on the U.S. debt would have immediate consequences that would reverberate around the world. For example, it could undermine the U.S. dollar's position as the global reserve currency and even the U.S. role as the world's strongest economy.

拉里斯认为，美国债务违约所产生的后果，将会立即引发全球性反应。例如，这将破坏美元作为全球储备货币地位，甚至破坏美国作为全球最强大国家的地位。

"It has never happened before that such a big country as the United States, a leading superpower of the day, is defaulting on its debts for technical reasons - because the United States is still a very rich and wealthy country; the money is there," noted Larres.

他说：“美国这样的大国，一个当今主要超级大国因技术性原因出现债务违约，这样的事情前所未有，因为美国依然是一个非常富裕和有钱的国家，资金就在美国。”

International effects

But other economies also could be affected. China is concerned about more than $1 trillion it has invested in the United States and is urging the United States to raise its debt ceiling.

不过，其他经济体也会受到影响。中国对投资美国的一万多亿美元资产非常担心，正在敦促美国提高债务上限。

Larres said much of the world has difficulty understanding this U.S. crisis, especially countries with authoritarian governments, such as China and some other East Asian states.

拉里斯说，世界大部分国家很难理解美国的这场危机，特别是中国等东亚地区集权国家政府。

"What is the debt ceiling, why does the government need to raise the debt ceiling? These are all questions people are wondering about because apart from the United States and Denmark, a debt ceiling doesn’t need to be raised by any other country in the world, so obviously, no one really understands that," he said.

他说：“什么是债务上限？为什麽政府需要提高债务上限？这是人们所不知道的问题，因为除了美国和丹麦以外，世界上任何其他国家无需提高债务上限，因此很显然，没人真正理解这个问题。”

Larres said the effects of the U.S. government shutdown are still mild, and that with a timely solution, the situation could be quickly rectified. But he added a prolonged impasse and a deeper crisis could have a negative effect that could undermine the position of the United States as the world's top political and economic leader.

拉里斯说，美国克服部分关闭的影响依然温和。假如能够及时解决，形势可能会很快改变。不过他说，长期僵持局面和深度危机将产生的负面影响，会破坏美国世界政治和经济主要引领者的地位。